Resetting the U.S.-Pakistan relationship

By Teresita C. Schaffer and Howard B. Schaffer Share

2011 was a catastrophic year for U.S.-Pakistan relations. Starting with CIA contractor Raymond Davis's arrest for shooting two Pakistanis dead in January, going on through the raid on Abbottabad in early May that killed Osama bin Laden, and culminating in the NATO forces lethal attack on a Pakistani border post in November 2011, a series of shocks shook this important partnership to its core. Both countries expect their future relationship to be more modest, but neither has defined this concept. As they grapple with this change, U.S. policymakers need to recognize that Pakistan, not Afghanistan, is the big issue, and to develop building blocks for a post-2014 relationship that meets the needs of both countries.

A recent visit to Pakistan provided a sobering view of where the United States now stands. Hostility toward the U.S. government among politicians, elites and the general public are a familiar problem, but two other aspects of today's problem are worth underlining. First, within the government, the biggest problem is with the Pakistan army, traditionally the privileged party when ties with Washington are robust. The army is now going out of its way to showcase an angry response to these humiliating events.  The Pakistan government's continuing refusal of visas for many U.S. official visitors, including military officers working on military procurement or aid projects is happening at the army's request (notable exceptions are visitors dealing with F-16 supply or maintenance). Almost all the senior military officers who would normally have attended ceremonial events like the U.S. July 4th reception stayed away in 2011 - clearly on instructions.

Echoes of this resentment can be found on the U.S. side as well. Pakistanis are often quite unaware of the deep anger in the United States over Osama bin Laden's long sojourn in Pakistan. Pakistanis have complained for decades about being taken for granted by the United States; that complaint is now coming from some of the Americans closest to the relationship. Pakistanis wonder why the United States is starting to build a towering and expensive new embassy complex in Islamabad. Americans are now privately asking the same question, and noting that the major defense office in the embassy has shrunk to a third of its former size since the visa freeze.

Against this background, everyone we spoke to in Pakistan believes the broad strategic bond both countries have talked of for the past decade is dead. Few, however, have given much thought to the ingredients of downsized ties. Some, such as Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif, reject U.S. economic aid. Others see aid - civilian and in some cases military - as a key element in the future, just as it has been in the past.

The most frequently mentioned theme in our discussions of the likely new look was the need for agreement on the end game in Afghanistan. This end game will indeed drive U.S.-Pakistan relations in the short run, but the United States is likely to achieve little beyond resumption of logistical support.

The hope of a common strategy in Afghanistan is completely unrealistic. The two countries' goals diverge in ways that are too important to sweep under the rug; indeed, that is a major reason why a big strategic partnership is now out of reach. In principle, both want a stable, governable Afghanistan with no continuing ties to al-Qaeda. For Pakistan, however, this remains a secondary priority. The key objective is freezing out Indian influence in Kabul. Pakistanis do not believe President Karzai will be disposed to protect their interests - or strong enough to do so even if he wishes to.

Strategic disagreement also impedes a common U.S.-Pakistan front on negotiations with the Taliban. Pakistanis view U.S.-Taliban discussions with skepticism and cynicism, both feelings now heightened by the fallout from the Koran-burning disaster in Afghanistan and, more recently, the shooting spree of an American soldier near Kandahar. The United States wants Pakistan's cooperation in talking to the Taliban; Pakistan wants to sit in the driver's seat. Even if the talks continue after their current interruption, Pakistan will focus chiefly on maximizing its own influence in Kabul, even if that means a dominant role for Taliban elements that have been at war with the United States. In short, seeking a common strategy for the Afghan end game is likely to leave the United States feeling bruised and Pakistan unsatisfied.

The Pakistani parliament is poised to take up the terms of reference for U.S.-Pakistan relations some time after March 19. The army and the government have apparently agreed to reopen ground transport links to NATO forces in Afghanistan, subject to a higher price tag related more specifically to the amount of transshipment. This would be an important contribution to a modus vivendi on Afghanistan, though it would not prevent the governments from working at cross-purposes on Afghanistan's fundamental political problems. But the rest of the parliamentary package could add new roadblocks, especially if it includes a demand to end drone attacks. The involvement of parliament in this decision is a welcome step toward shared responsibility between civilians and the military, but comes at the price of adding an unpredictable element to decision-making in Pakistan.

This is not a good starting point for a post-2014 relationship that fosters internal stability in Pakistan and healthier regional and international relationships. And yet stability and regional peace are the most important legacy the United States hopes to secure as it winds down its involvement in Afghanistan. To do this, the U.S. needs to cultivate some other building blocks for a more normal but constructive U.S.-Pakistan relationship.

The first is a lower-key diplomatic style. For over half a century, every period of strong U.S.-Pakistan partnership has relied on lofty but ambiguous promises to create the impression of a strategic bond. The U.S. and Pakistan now need less soaring rhetoric and more understanding of their mutual expectations. Where expectations are unrealistic, they need to be pared down through serious consultations. This kind of exercise has often been castigated as a "transactional relationship." Perhaps - but that is not an insult: it is a way to avoid the "jilted lover" syndrome that has afflicted both Islamabad and Washington through over-promising and under-delivering.

This more candid and realistic diplomatic style also includes greater U.S. willingness to listen to Pakistan's articulation of its own needs, and vice versa. The United States needs to be willing to say no when Pakistan's requests are really beyond reach - and to accept no for an answer, even if Pakistan rejects U.S. assistance that Americans think would help it. Above all, hard as it may be, the United States should get out of the business of pleading and finger-wagging. Our system makes it hard to stop issuing report cards - some (like the human rights report) are legally required, others are an inevitable result of Congressional testimony and other demands - but the U.S. should minimize this.

Moving beyond style, the United States should start now to build up three tools. The first is a smaller but better targeted economic aid program. Present aid levels are more than the state of U.S.-Pakistan relations can sustain, and the U.S. administration will have its work cut out preserving even a much smaller program once U.S. forces have left Afghanistan. But both the United States and Pakistan can benefit from concentrating on activities that support the parts of the Pakistan economy that are modernizing.

The U.S. and Pakistan should work out the details in candid consultations. Our suggestions start with infrastructure: irrigation and power generation facilities. This can be done with Pakistanis in the driver's seat, and with due attention to the political dimension of these projects. Such projects have a visibility that U.S. aid programs have all too often lacked. A second suggestion is, for want of a better term, business development: helping Pakistan build up the human capacity and institutions to support a larger and more vibrant small and medium business sector. We believe these would be welcomed in Pakistan despite the rejectionist posture one hears today.

The next tool is building up real business ties between the United States and Pakistan. This should not be in the form of a gift from the U.S. government: businesses make their own investment decisions. Before they invest in Pakistan, they will require a safer environment and above all the example of Pakistani businesses putting their own money into new plants and other facilities in Pakistan. But the U.S. government can lend important support once tentative efforts start. Examples include insurance programs like those of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) and pre-investment studies like those funded by the Trade and Development Agency (TDA). The biggest contribution would be extending preferential access to Pakistani textiles - a big stretch in today's environment but something that could be pursued if current tempers quiet down.

The third tool is more political: quiet U.S. support for more stabilizing regional relationships. Discreet encouragement for what India and Pakistan are doing on their own, including the trade opening initiative they are starting to implement, is part of this. But equally important is encouraging a broader set of regional ties. Afghan trade to and through Pakistan; energy linkages, including those involving India and countries in the Gulf; and even allowing the much discussed gas pipeline from Iran to sink or swim on its own commercial merits would all contribute to embedding Pakistan in a set of regional relationships that create greater peace and stability over time.

None of these regional efforts ought to be advertised as a U.S. initiative. It's not about us, it's about creating the infrastructure for a more peaceful and prosperous South Asian region. And none of these proposals will make longstanding U.S.-Pakistan problems vanish by magic. The reason for quietly supporting regional linkages, reinventing a better focused aid program and enhancing commercial ties, is that durable peace in the volatile region from the Persian Gulf through the Indian Ocean is at the heart of U.S. strategic interests. A dysfunctional Pakistan on terrible terms with its neighbors makes this impossible. Even in our eagerness to write the script for the end of our Afghan engagement, regional peace is an edifice worth building.

Teresita Schaffer is a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; Howard Schaffer teaches at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. Both are retired U.S. ambassadors with long experience in South Asia. They are co-directors of http://southasiahand.com.

Kristoffer Tripplaar-Pool/Getty Images

 

ABDALI

1:07 PM ET

March 19, 2012

oohweee

where is copy and past master (biased) ' marty '

no comments yet ?

 

ABDALI

6:40 AM ET

March 21, 2012

Your Carrot & Stick ??????

We have seen your stick ( Pakistan was the most sanctioned nation on Earth after"1998" )

We have seen your rotten carrots ,your $20 billion , we have lost $60 billion in

"WAR OF TERROR".........

 

PULLER58

2:06 PM ET

March 19, 2012

Reject, don't reset

Pakistan is either a failed state with nukes, or a rogue state with nukes. Either status renders them worthless as an ally. Let us abandon them...

 

SANMAN

8:42 PM ET

March 19, 2012

failed-->rogue-->enemy

They'll be selling those nukes soon enough

 

THEAZCOWBOY

3:51 PM ET

March 20, 2012

Whooppee nukes for Iran!

Let us hope that Messer Ahmadiejad has got that '1st right of refusal' signed already giving Iran access to the Paki's nukes and that he makes help make Tel Aviv the deepest harbor in the Middle East real soon. Hey fellows you've been fans of the UNITED SNAKES (US/Israel) for much too long now. Mass genocide does not wear well when you're trying to convince the neighbors you're a bonified democracy. Iran, like Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador have a 'problem' with the UNITED SNAKES because they nationalized their carbon resources and kicked the parastie Gringos and EU 'wannabe's' out on their kesiters, so what else is knu?"

Psst, besides 'allies' don't send out the Predatos 'to murder your people in industrial quantities.'

 

GINGGING

11:47 PM ET

March 19, 2012

www.proxy4biz.com

==== http://www.proxy4biz.com
Online Store,Get Name Brand Fashion From 12USD Now!
Lv,Gucci,Prada,Coach,Chanel Women sandal is $30
DG,JUICY,Lv,Gucci,Coach Hand-bag price is $35
Polo,Locaste,Levis,EdHardy,Bape,Christan Audigier AF,COOGI Tshirt price is $12
Jeans price is $34,Door to Door services!
5 days arrive your home or you
==== http://www.proxy4biz.com

 

MARTY MARTEL

11:47 PM ET

March 19, 2012

Schaffers want to ignore Pakistani State’s terrorist connections

Clearly Schaffers want to ignore Pakistani State’s terrorist connections just like their minions in Hillary Clinton’s State Department.

For them it does NOT matter that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly SPONSORING four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, as written by previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan in a secret review in 2009 and diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.

For Schaffers, it does NOT matter what former Pentagon official Gen (rtd) Jack Keane said at a discussion on Afghanistan organized by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank on June 30, 2011, namely that: "The truth is, the (Pakistani) ISI aids and abets the sanctuaries in Pakistan that the Afghan (Taliban) operate out of. They provide training for them, they provide resources for them and they provide intelligence for them. From those sanctuaries, every single day Afghan fighters come into Afghanistan and kill and maim us (US/NATO troops)". General Keane also added that “There are two ammonium nitrate factories in Pakistan. 80 per cent of the explosive devices that are used to kill our soldiers, kill Afghan security forces and kill Afghan people come from Pakistan."

Obviously US deserves to be duped by Pakistan for billions of dollars in aid while it shelters and supports the terrorists who have been killing US/NATO troops in Afghanistan since 2001.

 

THEAZCOWBOY

4:06 PM ET

March 20, 2012

US/NATO genociders attacked - It's called self defense.

Interesting, how you can get a room full of reichwing nuts and call 'aggression' and 'genocide' self-defense. The Jewish cut throats murder 12 year old Palestinian kids throwing rocks at 100,000 lb Merkava Mk IV tanks that murder innocent Palestinian/Lebanese men, women and children with US supplied 120mm 'flechette' anti-personnel shells that tear innocent people into shredded flesh, burnt hair and crushed bones, and also call it 'self defense' and these FP 'Cabrones' heads go 'up-and-dowm' a thousand times a minute - very sad indeed.

 

PECHORIN

1:38 AM ET

March 20, 2012

A dove ready to bomb.

I'm deeply angry about Pakistan's continued duplicity. Everyone knows that many people, including people of significant rank, had to know about where Osama was and were protecting him. Pakistan's continued support for the Taliban has led to the deaths of untold numbers of American soldiers. They are not an ally, they are a plain enemy of America.

If we can't disengage entirely then I'm of the opinion that we need to show the Pakistanis that their betrayals have consequences. Why not use some of those drones to kill a few of the ISI colonels who protected Osama for 10 years? Maybe then they will realize they cannot kill Americans with impunity. They cannot take our money and use it to kill our boys. If they are going to kill our boys then the men responsible for those decisions will never be safe outside of a bunker. The only thing the Pakistani military understands, apparently, is force. That's what we should have learned in 2001. That argument was ridiculous and offensive when applied to Iraq, but the continued Pakistani aggression can allow for no other explanation.

We tried for a decade to approach Pakistan in good faith. We were betrayed and wronged, and the government of Pakistan has done the U.S. more harm than any other government since the end of the Cold War.

 

THEAZCOWBOY

4:20 PM ET

March 20, 2012

Re: 'Kill our boys.' Very

Re: 'Kill our boys.'

Very interesting comment.

One of 'your boys (plural it's being said) just massacred, raped and burned to death innocent Afghan civilians. (We'll skip their 1.4m Iraq atrocites for now, K?).
Take your 'Our boys' and stuff them! (Don't forget the Haditha/Fallujah killers too, K?).
Major Hasan was right. No PTSD victims here. Just cold blooded killers that got in with 'moral waivers' because their 'rap sheets' were so provocative and now need to be court martialed and put away 'wet' for an extended period of time.'
Bam! Bam! Bam! ' (Here they come lady justice - catch!)

 

RIKI TIKI TAVI

8:20 AM ET

March 20, 2012

US Pakistan relations likely to deteriorate further

Well, it's good to see that the Schaffers have refrained (finally) from leaning on the usual trope that 'Kashmir must be solved" for peace to come to South Asia. That was always a lie.

The US, Pakistan, and India form a triangle where each party knows how to manipulate the other two. The US is no innocent victim here. Only when the US allows the natural balance of power to prevail in South Asia will peace arrive. Only when the US unambiguously says to Pakistan, "we no longer see you as our strategic hedge against India" will peace arrive. But that kind of "reset," which is essential, is unlikely to happen. Why? Because the US loves to do what it accuses others of doing, which is to speak from both sides of its mouth.

 

NEEL288

12:03 AM ET

March 23, 2012

@ RIKI TIKI TAVI, You have

@ RIKI TIKI TAVI,

You have hit the nail on the head.

The likes of Schaffer have always argued that the best way to deal with a dysfunctional Pakistan is (1) arming it against India, ostensibly to make it feel more secure and (2) pouring in tens of billions of dollars in the name of war on terror, knowing fully well that lack of accountability makes it easier for Pakistan to divert the money in funding its proxies.

No one in the US is prepared to accept that the best way to have stability and peace in the region is to leave Pakistan alone to deal with its neighbours on bilateral basis.

 

NIKOS_RETSOS

8:39 AM ET

March 20, 2012

Resetting the U.S.-Pakistan relationship

The Pakistani government has turned Pakistan into an American protectorate for $$$$ in U.S. aid, and now, according to the latest news reports, it demands "apologies" from the U.S. for the way it is using their land? Obviously, the Pakistani politicians want to have it both ways: a) Pocket the $$$$ from the U.S., and b) portray themselves to ordinary Pakistanis as nationalists! Resetting the U.S.-Pakistani relationship, therefore, won't be easy! The Pakistani population is 98.5% hostile to the U.S., but is politicians have been historically corrupt, and that is why the Pakistani army has overthrown many civilian governments, and hanged former president Zulfikar Ali Bhutto for corruption.

Pakistan has allowed the U.S. to piggy-back on them its war on Afghanistan for money. It was a Judas Iscariot arrangement that is resented by ordinary Pakistanis, but the Pakistani army agreed reluctantly to get its F-16 it had paid-for but the U.S. had withheld, and other funds that Pakistan uses now to co-produce a fighter jet with China. What the Pakistani people get from this U.S.-Pakistani relationship? Nothing, as the past 2 years massive floods in Pakistan proved. Government help has been almost non-existent, and the Pakistani people are still clueless where all those $ billions of the U.S. aid go!

Can the U.S. and Pakistan reset their relationship? No. The fact is that Pakistan has leased its property (a.k.a. sovereignty) to the U.S.for its war in Afghanistan, and the U.S. wants Pakistan only as a 'contractor state' for that war. Nothing else! Nikos Retsos, retired professor

 

DR. KUCHBHI

11:32 AM ET

March 20, 2012

Carrot without stick

Unfortunately this is yet another article that says ABSOLUTELY NOTHING about sending a message to the ISI and Paki army that their perfidy has consequences.

We need to let them know that their support for terrorists will cost them not just money but the lives of their personnel (just as they take American lives now).

The last time the Pakis changed their behavior, Musharraf was on the phone apparently hearing someone say that his country would be bombed back into the stone age. He then proceeded to pull out thousands of Paki troops and proxies back over the Durand Line.

Over time they realized NATO stood for "No Action Talk Only" and changed right back.

Not providing aid to their military is not a stick.

 

NEEL288

11:29 PM ET

March 22, 2012

US-Pakistan dance

The US-Pakistan relations go back several decades, runs deep, and there is always much more than meets the eyes.

It is absolutely unbelievable that the Americans have no plan-B, as far as dealing with Pakistan is concerned. American failure to declare Pakistan a terrorist state, and instead pumping in tens of billions of dollars worth of economic aid and weapon systems in the name of war on terror, only reinforces the belief that the whole US-Pakistan spat is well choreographed, aimed at hoodwinking the world.

The very fact that the US can take quiet comfort in a nuclear Pakistan, against zero tolerance when it comes to a nuclear Iran, gives a clear indication of what America's interests in the region are. This is a clear indication of centrality of Pakistan in the US plans for the region.

By blocking the NATO supply route, Pakistan has already made a case for substantial increase in US military and economic aid. This article drops a clear hint that there is going to be a many fold increase in the tens of billions of dollars the US have already pumped into Pakistan in the past decade, and the Americans will have no difficulty to justify the same in future.

 

COOPERGERMAIN

2:00 AM ET

April 17, 2012

Pakistan has allowed the U.S.

Pakistan has allowed the U.S. to piggy-back on them its war on Afghanistan for money. It was a Judas Iscariot arrangement that is resented by ordinary Pakistanis, but the Pakistani army agreed reluctantly to get its F-16 it had paid-for but the U.S. had withheld, and other funds that Pakistan uses now to co-produce a fighter jet with China. What the Pakistani people green blog get from this U.S.-Pakistani relationship? Nothing, as the past 2 years massive floods in Pakistan proved. Government help has been almost non-existent, and the Pakistani people are still clueless where all those $ billions of the U.S. aid go!