Russia, China, and stabilizing South Asia
By Dr. Geoffrey F. Gresh
Monday, March 12, 2012 - 4:13 PM
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As the U.S. begins to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, Russia and China have both declared a desire to increase their military presence throughout Central and South Asia. This new regional alignment, however, should not be viewed as a threat to U.S. strategic national interests but seen rather as concurrent with strategic and regional interests of the United States: regional peace, stability and the prevention of future terrorist safe havens in ungoverned territories. As China and Russia begin to flex their military muscles, the U.S. military should harness their expanded regional influence to promote proactively a new period of responsible multilateral support for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
This past December it became clearer that Russia had begun to re-assert its regional presence when the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) granted Russia the veto power over any member state's future decision to host a foreign military. CSTO members, including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, have become increasingly valuable U.S. partners in the Northern Distribution Network after Pakistan shut down U.S. military supply routes running from the south into Afghanistan when NATO troops killed 24 Pakistani soldiers last November in the border area of Salala. Though it appears the route may soon open again, the United States must still adopt a new strategy that works more closely with Russia and the CSTO to maintain the Northern Distribution Network long into the future, which currently accounts for about 60 percent of all cargo transiting Central Asia en route to Afghanistan.
Certainly, the U.S. risks being unable to control many aspects of the Northern Distribution Network as it withdraws from the region, and this may in turn adversely affect Afghanistan's future success. However, if the United States remains concerned about leaving the region to a historically obdurate regional rival like Russia, it should also bear in mind that Russia has a vital strategic interest in the future stability of the region. Russia has approximately 15 million Muslims living within its borders, with an estimated 2 million Muslims in Moscow. Russia is fearful of what occurs on its periphery and wants to minimize the spread of Muslim extremism that may originate from an unstable Afghanistan or Pakistan. In addition, Russia does not want regional instability that threatens its oil and gas investments. In particular, Russia wants to ensure that it continues to influence the planning and implementation of the potentially lucrative natural gas pipeline that may one day traverse Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India.
In a recent meeting with Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov discussed Russia's commitment to preserving peace and stability throughout the AfPak region, and rejected the use of violence by al-Qaeda and its affiliates that aim to undermine the current Afghan government. Furthermore, he pledged to bolster bilateral ties and work cooperatively with Pakistan to achieve stability in Afghanistan. A newly-elected President Vladimir Putin also recently wrote in a campaign brief that "Russia will help Afghanistan develop its economy and strengthen its military to fight terrorism and drug production." It is not lost on the U.S. government that Russia is proposing to succeed where the U.S. has struggled. However, if Russia does succeed in helping establish a secure Afghanistan and Pakistan that can prevent the spread of bases for terrorism then it is a victory for everyone.
Aside from Pakistan, and in line with promoting security throughout the region, Russia announced recently that it will provide $16 million to Kyrgyzstan to assist with border security in the south. Russia also agreed recently to pay $15 million in back rent for its four military facilities across the country, including an air base, a torpedo test center on Lake Issyk-Kul, and a communications center in the south. Further, Russia signed a security pact with Tajikistan last fall to extend its basing lease for 49 years, in addition to a bilateral agreement that will enable Russia to become more integrated into Tajikistan's border security forces that oversee an 830-mile border with Afghanistan. Providing similar types of U.S. aid and security support will also help ensure that the valuable Northern Distribution Network remains open and secure for supply lines into Afghanistan. If the northern trade routes are shut down it would adversely affect aid arriving to Afghanistan and therefore jeopardize the stability of Afghanistan and the region. It would also be in opposition to Russia's regional interests.
Rather than citing these examples in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as a demonstration of how the U.S. will soon lose out in the region to a resurgent Russia, policymakers can view them as an indication of how Russian interests align with the U.S. to help maintain regional security. More importantly, if Russia wants to take a more active future role in Central Asia, the U.S. should address this shift and work directly with Russia and other CSTO members to ensure that the Northern Distribution Network remains operational in the distant future.
Certainly, the U.S. should not be naïve to think that Russia will not at times oppose U.S. regional interests and that there will not be significant areas of conflict. In 2009, Russia tried to convince then President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev to terminate the U.S. contract for its base in Manas. In this case, the U.S. fended off the threat of expulsion successfully through promises of increased U.S. military and economic aid. Continuing to maintain significant amounts of aid to the Central Asia Republics will therefore provide additional incentives to ensure the U.S. is less vulnerable to Russian whims, while at the same time remaining present and active for the benefit of regional security and the maintenance of the Northern Distribution Network.
Another powerful regional player, China, also has a vested interest in the stability of the AfPak region, and has already begun to play a more active security role. It was reported this past January, for example, that China intends to establish one or more bases in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Subsequently, at the end of February, Beijing played host to the first China-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral dialogue to discuss regional cooperation and stability.
Due to China's shared borders and vibrant trade with both Afghanistan and Pakistan -- not to mention China's estimated 8 million Turkic-speaking Muslim Uyghurs living in western Xinjiang Province -- it has a direct interest in ensuring that both Afghanistan and Pakistan remain stable long into the future. Bilateral trade between China and Pakistan, for example, increased 28 percent in the past year to approximately $8.7 billion. China also signed an oil agreement with Afghanistan in December that could be worth $7 billion over the next two decades. Additionally, China is concerned about the rise of its Uyghur separatist movement that maintains safe havens in both countries, in addition to the spread of radical Islam. The United States should push China to become more actively engaged in Pakistan's security affairs as China has a direct interest in moderating radicalism in Pakistan and keeping it stable.
Indicative of Pakistan's strategic value to China, since 2002 China has financed the construction and development of Pakistan's Gwadar deep water port project. China has contributed more than $1.6 billion toward the port's development as a major shipping and soon-to-be naval hub, which is located just 250 miles from the opening of the Persian Gulf. A Pakistan Supreme Court decision in 2011 enabled China to take full control of Gwadar from a Singapore management company further establishing China's firm position in the Pakistani port city.
The creation of a new Chinese military network in Pakistan between Gwadar and the FATA would enable China to oversee the transit and protection of Chinese goods and investments that travel from both the coast and interior through the Karakorum corridor to China's Xinjiang Province. China already has an estimated 4,000 troops in Gilgit Baltistan, part of the larger and disputed Kashmir, and just recently it was reported after a January 2012 trip by Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaq Kayani to China that Pakistan is considering leasing Gilgit Baltistan to China for the next 50 years. Such a move would indeed escalate tensions with India to the south, but from a Pakistani perspective, China would be positioned better than it already is to assist with any future Pakistani national security concerns. And from a Chinese perspective, it would improve their ability to monitor any illicit Uyghur activities aimed at inciting further rebellion in western China.
With interest comes responsibility, and in the wake of the recent reports predicting the establishment of a more robust Chinese military network across Pakistan, it is time that China begins to supplement its increased involvement in Pakistan by helping to maintain peace and stability throughout the entire AfPak region. Certainly after fighting two long wars, the United States can no longer be the sole world power responsible for the region, and both China and Russia have been U.S. security free-riders for too long. They have benefited financially while NATO continues to lose soldiers and accrue a massive war debt. After 11 years of war, it is time the United States work more proactively with Russia, China, Pakistan and the Central Asian Republics to create solutions for the future stability and collective security of the region. Indeed, we may not have a choice, and the United States should embrace the transformation of a new era in Eurasia's heartland.
Dr. Geoffrey F. Gresh is Assistant Professor of International Security Studies at National Defense University in Washington, D.C. The views expressed here are strictly his own.
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Russia, China will further complicate stability in South Asia
Many of the current complication in Afghanistan are directly rooted in Pakistani State’s desire to avoid being squeezed between India and Afghanistan as much as India’s desire to avoid being squeezed between China and Pakistan.
Bringing China and Russia will only further complicate stability in South Asia with Russia and India supporting Afghanistan and China and Pakistan wanting to reimpose Taliban rule in Afghanistan.
The whole reason why Afghan war is still continuing, is Pakistani State’s support and shelter of Taliban insurgency that Dr. Gresh intentionally refuses to acknowledge.
Former Pentagon official Gen (rtd) Jack Keane said at a discussion on Afghanistan organized by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank on June 30, 2011: "The truth is, the (Pakistani) ISI aids and abets the sanctuaries in Pakistan that the Afghan (Taliban) operate out of. They provide training for them, they provide resources for them and they provide intelligence for them. From those sanctuaries, every single day Afghan fighters come into Afghanistan and kill and maim us (US/NATO troops)". General Keane also added that “There are two ammonium nitrate factories in Pakistan. 80 per cent of the explosive devices that are used to kill our soldiers, kill Afghan security forces and kill Afghan people come from Pakistan."
Previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan, wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly SPONSORING four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.
Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.
Adm Mullen told the foreign news media on 1/13/2011 about America’s primary ally in America’s fight against terrorism, that: “I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, it [Pakistan] is the epicenter of terrorism in the world right now. It is absolutely critical that the safe havens in Pakistan get shut down. We cannot succeed in Afghanistan without that. It’s not just Haqqani Network anymore, or Al Qaeda or TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan), the Afghan Taliban, or LeT (Lashkar-e-Tayyeba), it’s all of them working together.”
As long as US continues to allow Pakistan playing this double game of ‘running with the terrorist hares while hunting with the American hounds‘, there is NO chance of stabilizing South Asia.
by China and Russia. There should be a counter-weight to the lopsided presence of forces that have caused nothing but death and destruction in AfPak.
The biggest threat so far is India.
US asked India to 'close or prune' its consulates in Afghanistan especially in Jalalabad and Kandahar following allegations by Pakistan that it was fomenting trouble in the border areas of NWFP and Balochistan. "Senior US diplomat William Burns has given Indian officials a 'wish-list' or a terse and cryptic 'directive' to shut down Indian consulates in Afghanistan, reduce presence in Kabul, stop sending mercenaries across the Durand Line and resume dialogue with Pakistan.
India to use it against China and Russia. The Russians and the Chinese are taking the next logical step to neutralise this threat.
US has ignored the regional dynamics and the balance of power and imposed upon the region a country that is itching for a "limited war" to test its dubious "cold start" doctrine of quick kill and escape.
Curtail India if you want a lasting peace in the region.
Really, doesn't anyone check sources in articles anymore. This article maintains that China is stationing troops in Baltistan and preparing to lease Baltistan for 50 years, and the source turns out to be an obscure Urdu newspaper published in Baltistan. All of this is covered under the vague rubric "It was reported."
Similarly, the fantastical notion that China is about to obtain military bases in FATA turns out to be based on a Pakistani newspaper quoting an Indian newsmagazine sourced from a otherwise unknown Indian intelligence report. On the face of it this is ludicrous what interest would China have in such a base? And why would it not face the same hostility that any other outsider would face in FATA?
If one of my students wrote a paper with sourcing like this, and did not properly caveat it, I would give that student a C. The AfPak Channel should do better than this.
Here are a couple of follow-ups on sourcing:
Regarding Gilgit Baltistan and the Chinese Presence, the “4,000 troops” hyperlinked above brings you to the following article: http://www.neurope.eu/blog/dangerous-presence-chinese-troops-gilgit-baltistan. It was written by Kristiina Ojuland who is currently a member of the European Parliament and was Estonia’s foreign minister from 2002-2005. She also writes about the general Chinese military presence and alliance with Pakistan. The New York Times also ran an op-ed in 2010 stating that China had 7,000 to 11,000 troops stationed in Gilgit Baltistan: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/opinion/27iht-edharrison.html
As for the other claims, here are some additional articles regarding a Chinese motivation for a military presence in Pakistan:
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38856
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/china-pakistan-bases/
The dominant sentiment in all global markets is one of nervousness. Nervousness that Europe’s debt problems may worsen and threaten the pace of economic recovery in the region; nervousness that China’s efforts to contain inflation growth may slow demand for imported materials; nervousness that events across the Middle East may yet worsen and drive the price of oil to a level that also damages the growth outlook. That sentiment is unlikely to change much this week and, perhaps not for several weeks. For investors that means avoiding risk assets and stocking to defensive themes until some of these issues are resolved or stabilized (see Stock Watch below).
The eurozone and the euro will hold centre stage at the start of this week and that will be a big contributory factor to where the dollar-euro rate trades. The dollar remains one of the major factors in the oil and metals market and a driver of sentiment towards risk assets generally. EU Finance Ministers are scheduled to meet early this week to decide on what action is required to resolve Greece’s debt problem. The yield on Greek debt and the CDS market all clearly show that investors are pricing in a high risk of Greek debt restructuring, albeit most expect a fresh bailout as part of that restructuring
Last week the dollar extended the previous week’s rally as investors reverted to the US currency as a haven to escape the threat of a worsening debt problem in the eurozone and the threat to growth in Asia as China introduced further measures to slow credit growth. The dollar gained 1.4% against the euro to close at $1.4118.
Gold staged a strong rally early as traders took the view that a price below $1,500 per ounce is unjustified. But the mid week strength did not hold as the dollar rally undermined the case for haven assets. Gold fell 0.9% on Friday to cut the five-day gain to 0.1% and the closing price to $1,493.6 per ounce.
The full note, with this week’s Stock Watch, diary, weekly funds flow analysis, tables showing the best and worst share performance of last week and year to date can be downloaded here Download Russia_Week_May_17_11.Included below are three informal notes looking at the practical implications for investors of the president’s modernization programme. Economic Glasnost was issued Dec 21st and Talking Modernization, Prioritizing Energy was issued January 5th. Modernization – the Political Priority Industries was issued January 14th.
Strategy Briefing: Economic Glasnost
Twenty years after Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s policy of glasnost brought about the end of the Soviet Union, the government of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is again embarked on a strategy of openness. Only this time they are banking on economic glasnost to attract the investment flows that Russia needs to both create greater diversity in the country’s oil-dependent economy and to rebuild its aging infrastructure.
They are also hoping that the open door will swing both ways as Russia’s industries also need to create strategic links with established companies, especially in Europe. That is what is behind the government’s greater determination to improve how foreign investors, legislators and major corporations view Russia. It also explains why the country is so keen on attracting major sporting events such as the World Cup and a Grand Prix, and why, after 17 years of hesitancy, there is now greater urgency to be admitted into the World Trade Organization in 2011. Russia needs the investment capital and the expertise of Western companies if it is to break the stranglehold of oil. That is why the modern-day economic glasnost is real and will be sustained.
Continue reading "RUSSIA STRATEGY BRIEFING: MODERNIZATION – THE POLITICAL PRIORITY INDUSTRIES" » (This piece originally appeared on Russia Beyond the Headlines)
Long gone are the times when aged and frail denizens of the Kremlin would go on a foreign trip only on special occasions: to sign a strategic arms control treaty or to visit with fellow septuagenarians in the so-called fraternal socialist countries. (In the latter case, the visit would begin with a triple fraternal kiss.)
These days, Russia’s young, youthful and fit leaders travel abroad non-stop. However, it’s not arms control negotiations, much less “ideology,” that is driving them. It’s all about business. Usually accompanied by a bunch of prominent businesspeople, Russian top guns relentlessly tour the world to advance Russia’s economic interests.
President Dmitry Medvedev’s three-day trip to China last week was no exception: Out of 15 documentssigned by the two countries, 12 dealt with different aspects of Russia-China economic cooperation. The visit itself pointedly ended with Medvedev and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, presiding over the opening of a 625-mile oil pipeline from Eastern Siberia to China.
Continue reading "THE CHINA CARD" » Russia is increasingly unable to resist the charm of China’s economic and political influence. As Russia’s relatively low productivity translates into declining competitiveness, China’s ways of influencing the north continue to expand.
Even routine domestic economic decisions in Russia are increasingly made with a consideration for China. For instance, Beijing sent a delegation to Moscow in July to negotiate conditions of a large group of ethnic Chinese affected by the Moscow government’s decision to close the large Cherkizovsky Market following multiple violations of labor and immigration law. Headed by Beijing’s deputy trade minister, the delegation negotiated restoration of the trading area on condition of a Chinese $1 billion investment.
But in recognition of the growing need for China’s investments and export markets, Russia was unwilling to press environmental claims against its neighbor when it polluted the Amur River.
China’s rising importance has translated into the growing prominence of the Sinophiles in Russia’s national discussions. Since the end of the Soviet Union, the China discourse has evolved from one dominated by the Westernizers to one largely controlled by the Sinophiles, who have supporters in the government, energy firms with ties to Asia and the military-industrial complex.
Continue reading "RUSSIA'S TILT TOWARD CHIINA" »
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Following the Yalta conference at the end of WWII, Russia began to install communist governments in the countries of Europe. The United States took opposition to this stance, saying that those countries should be allowed to govern themselves. No military actions were taken by the United States to oppose these actions by the Soviet Union, however. The term "Cold War" was actually coined by Herbert Bayard Swope in a speech he wrote in 1947(I believe that was the year he wrote the speech). Our involvement in two world wars in the first half of this century had made the United States more insular, by which I mean we became less embroiled in large scale wars like WWI and WWII, although by no means did we keep out of conflicts altogether..
"Is rio orange war always comparateur forfait inevitable ?"
MaximB
Another powerful regional player, China, also has a vested interest in the stability of the AfPak region, and has already begun to play a more active security role. It was reported this past January, for example, that China intends to establish one or more bases in HaberPakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Subsequently, at the end of February, Beijing played host to the first China-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral dialogue to discuss regional cooperation and stability.
Due to China's Habershared borders and vibrant trade with both Afghanistan and Pakistan -- not to mention China's estimated 8 million Turkic-speaking Muslim Uyghurs living in western Xinjiang Province Haber-- it has a direct interest in ensuring that both Afghanistan and Pakistan remain stable
Yes, we financially supported "anti-communist" Asian countries. We also fought two major wars with Asian countries during that time, Korea and Vietnam..
"Is rio orange war always forfait b and you inevitable ?"
MaximB
Well, to my mind, Moscow has no problems with any of the above parameters. So, the Kremlin shrewdly assesses that no harm comes to Russia's security interests if Russia helps the US efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. The odds are heavily stacked against Obama's Afghan strategy, but then, that isn't Russia's problem. To help a friend in need would make Russia a friend indeed of the Obama administration which has already left Americans on the verge of bankruptcy. The logic is simple, direct and, possibly, even workable, since the US faces a potentially serious political and military quagmire in Afghanistan and is in dire need of whatever help from any quarter.
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