Much ado about nothing

By Khalid Mafton Sunday, December 4, 2011 - 7:39 PM Share

A decade after the first international conference on Afghanistan at Bonn, Germany is hosting a follow-up conference on Monday, widely known as Bonn II. The first Bonn Conference prepared a framework for the newly established Afghan administration and picked Hamid Karzai to lead the interim administration. In 2004 and again in 2009, Karzai was elected President of the country.

As always with this war-torn region, there are voices expressing optimism and others expressing pessimism regarding what can be expected of the conference. The recent NATO air strike along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border has certainly contributed to the voices of pessimism. Islamabad has declared that it will boycott the conference as a protest to what they're calling the "unprovoked" NATO bombing that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. Although there's been no change in that official decision, sources have said that Pakistan's Ambassador in Germany will likely attend.

Pakistan's rigid stance against participating in the Bonn conference conveys a clear, but dangerous message -- that it has no desire to bring stability to Afghanistan.

The conference is expected to focus on three main areas: the transfer of security responsibilities to the Afghan government by 2014, the long-term commitment by the international community to Afghanistan beyond the 2014, and the future political stability of the country.

Ashraf Haidari, Deputy Assistant National Security Advisor for Afghanistan was also eager to remind me, "Ten years have passed since the first historic Bonn Conference that helped chart a political road-map for creating the institutions of a permanent democratic government [in Afghanistan]. That central objective of the first Bonn Conference, along with its other major goals, has been achieved. But our collective efforts to secure the future of Afghanistan are still a work in progress."

Haidari then drove his point home. "The main objective of this second Bonn Conference is for the international community and the government of Afghanistan to re-affirm our shared commitment to a solid, long-term partnership beyond 2014. Such partnership must credibly assure the Afghan people that our country will not be abandoned again. Afghanistan's enemies must understand that our nation-partners will continue their solidarity and support with and for the Afghan people, until Afghanistan is no longer vulnerable to security threats from the same state and non-state actors which once undermined international peace and security -- as we experienced in the unchecked events of the 1990s that led to the tragedy of 9/11."

Afghan women's rights activist Najla Ayubi has a decidedly more negative view of what the upcoming conference can accomplish. "It is one of several unproductive, symbolic conferences to be held on Afghanistan. Decisions have already been made. Several international conferences were held in the past ten years, none had tangible and effective outcomes for Afghans -- this one is not an exception. The Afghan people at large are the victim of regional and international politics. The current Afghan government could not effectively use the previous opportunities opened for Afghanistan and will not be able to appropriately use the new opportunity."

She went on to say, "Afghans suffer from unconstitutional acts, systemic corruption, human rights violations, increasing insecurity, poppy boom, extreme poverty, and more." To address these issues, Ayubi suggests, "If the current Afghan administration has any wish to be honest with its people -- which I doubt -- it is time for the Afghan authorities to admit their past mistakes and open the door for a holistic approach to overcome the contemporary challenges facing the country, which include increasing insecurity and systemic corruption."

Like Ayubi, Vahid Mojdeh, political analyst and former member of the Taliban's foreign ministry staff, also voiced pessimism about what the conference can achieve. But Mojdeh is pessimistic for different reasons. He argues that the first Bonn Conference, lacking the presence of the Taliban and not well represented ethnically, triggered the current chaos and insecurity in the country. And he insists that, "the Second Bonn Conference suffers from similar shortcomings." In addition, Pakistan has boycotted the conference, which will potentially prevent the outcomes of the meeting from being implemented.

Asadullah Walwalji, an Afghan writer and analyst told me that the "absence of Pakistan in such a conference means that decisions made there, will not be implemented; i.e. Islamabad will continue to play its destructive and sabotaging role in Afghanistan."

Sayed Zaman Hashemi, an Afghan political analyst, has a different view about the conference. "I think the first Bonn Conference was to fight terrorism, establish a democratic system, and rebuild Afghanistan. Considering the recession and pressure from the public in those countries, the sSecond Bonn Conference, indeed, is an exit conference and end point to an active presence of the West in Afghanistan. The reasons behind such an exit are clear: systemic corruption within the Afghan administration and the (fact that the) Afghan government has practically changed democracy to demagogy - both of which are unacceptable for the West."

The sSecond Bonn Conference is taking place at a time when the Afghan government is seeking to sign a binding strategic partnership agreement with the United States, while -- according to the Afghan government -- the United States insists on signing a nonbinding declaration. Before signing the strategic agreement, the Afghan government has set a precondition that U.S. forces stop carrying out night raids on Afghan homes. The U.S. and NATO have long considered night raids one of the most effective ways to fight insurgency in Afghanistan. The Afghan government is also insisting that the U.S. hand over those prisoners dwelling under the custody of the U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

Some Afghan analysts, however, believe that the Afghan government should be more cautious in this regard. "The Afghan people are in need of cooperation by a superpower like the U.S. The Afghan government should not be so insistent regarding its conditions to the U.S. They both had better come to a mutually acceptable agreement that will potentially benefit both countries." states Ayubi.

Helaluddin Helal, a former Afghanistan Deputy Interior Minister, also believes that the Afghan government should not insist on its position. "At this stage, the Afghan security forces are not acquainted with modern military tools. Considering the effectiveness of night raids and the inabilities of the Afghan security forces, how can the government take a leading role in night raids?" Helal asks, arguing that Afghan troops need more time to be trained in order to lead the assaults. In addition, Helal argues that most Afghan security forces are affiliated with different ethnic allegiances and that in the near term, it will be impossible for them to rise above those allegiances in order to align themselves with the national interest.

Equally important, Helal says, the Afghan security forces are unable to take over responsibility for detainees being held at U.S. facilities in Afghanistan. Two prison breaks in Kandahar, in which hundreds of mostly Taliban prisoners managed to escape, exemplify the incompetence of Afghan forces. Helal predicts that a strategic partnership between the two countries will be signed, but that it will take time.

Considering the acute political, security, and economic situation in Afghanistan and proven incompetence of the Afghan government to use international aid effectively, systematically fight corruption, ensure security, prevent poppy cultivation, provide a better living standard for Afghans, and establish an administration based on the values of good governance, it seems likely that the second Bonn Conference will fail to establish a more durable order. Unless the international community puts increasing pressure on the Afghan government to fight corruption and provide better services for the Afghan people, the insurgents will gain strength, more people will join hands with the Taliban, security will deteriorate, and both the Afghan people and the international community will suffer the consequences.

However, something the conference can accomplish is providing the international community with the opportunity to convey its clear message that Afghanistan will not be abandoned again, and that Pakistan will not be given another chance to set Afghanistan's course, as it did during the Taliban's time in power.

Khalid Mafton is an Afghan writer and analyst.

PATRIK STOLLARZ/AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:AFPAK, AFGHANISTAN, AFPAK CHANNEL, CORRUPTION, DEVELOPMENT, DIPLOMACY, PAKISTAN, POLITICS, SECURITY, TALIBAN, TERRORISM

(2)

HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE

PUREPMA

11:04 AM ET

December 5, 2011

The Bonn Conference

Tell the German Foreign Office to push for a positive outcome at Bonn by taking action here: http://www.togetherafghanistan.org/bonncampaign/bonntwitter.html
And check out the #CommitAtBonn feed from earlier today - experts, Afghan delegates and David Miliband discuss Afghanistan and hopes/fears for the Bonn conference.

FAZAL UR REHMAN AFRIDI

5:29 AM ET

December 9, 2011

Bonn International Conference on Afghanistan

Bonn International Conference on Afghanistan can rightly be termed a milestone in the right direction in the recent history of Afghanistan. This mega-event will go a long way in the resolution of the long-standing problems of this war-torn country. Afghanistan is faced with Security, governance and economic deficit. The Bonn conference was meant to give full assurance to the government of Afghanistan that the International Community particularly US and EU are standing firm behind it and will never leave it at the merci of some regional wolfs. Earlier, the same commitment was shown by the US and India by signing Strategic agreements with Afghanistan. Firm political, security and economic guarantees have been pledged beyond 2014, which will be further cemented in Tokyo conference. It will be a kind of Marshal Plan for Afghanistan which will go a long way in the development and prosperity of not only Afghanistan but the whole region. A roadmap was devised for beyond 2014 for a successful political, security and economic transition, good governance, peace and reconciliation. Besdies, measures were taken to effectively tackle the menace of corruption and drug trade, protect and preserve the Human rights of women and ensure the rule of law.

Karzai was never seeb in such a confident mood as on that historical day. As despite a tiny criticism from some Tajik elements and Pakistani media, he was well supported by the international Community, partly due to the presence of well qualified and able people like Jaanan Musazai, Afghan spokesperson and director communications who welcomed and put forward the point of view of Afghanistan to the participants in a very convincing manner. Earlier, in May this year Karzai was a real punching bag at the International Conference on Afghanistan held at Paris, where one could not find a single person to defend him. Pakistani media in its blind opposition to Hamid Karzia was subjective, sans substance and unjust while trying to dub him and even the conference as failure. But, as a matter of fact, Karzai was the real winner and a hero. He received a hero like reception at Bonn and was listened to very attentively by the International Community. All the delegations from more the 90 countries were supporting him and were not happy with Pakistan for boycotting the Conference in protest against the recent death of 24 Pakistani military personnel in US air strikes on Pakistani military posts in the Mohmand agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Karzai was able to convince the International Community especially US and EU for long term commitments and guarantees for Afghanistan. His voice was well heard when he said Afghanistan need them for the next 10 years.

The Pakistani Media team was the biggest in the conference, which amazed me in the sense that what they were intended to do at Bonn if their government had already boycotted the event. They were bigger in number but inefficient in their journalistic and professional domains. Most of the time they were seen in the media centre, just watching the events on the big screen there. While journalists from other countries were covering the event directly and interviewing the members of the civil society of Afghanistan, foreign delegates and ministers. They were reporting the conference to be a flop just for the consumption of the local audience. Journalists and anchor-persons like Hamid Mir were telling other media that Pakistan made a big mistake for not participating at the Bonn conference. He was interviewing only ISI agents from Pakistan and Afghanistan to support their point of view which does not mean that the reality could be changed by such talks. Besides, the conference organizers did not take them seriously. They seemed to be self-deceiving themselves and the Pakistan nation too. Just one journalist and anchor- person Saleem Safi was distinct in his well-balanced approach in discussions at the sidelines of the Conference. I was told by one Pakistani journalist one day ahead of the conference that Pakistan had agreed in Principle to send her Ambassador in Germany to attend the conference but could not do so due to objections raised by Afghanistan. It is naïve to hear from the Pakistan journalists that the conference is failure despite the fact that almost the whole international community supported the conference with the exception of Pakistan. Pakistan also conveyed its support, however behind the scene to the US and EU as described by the German Foreign Minister in his final press conference side by side with the Afghan Foreign Minister. So, it is advisable to these journalists to refrain from deceiving Pakistani public on the behest of Military Establishment.

In my interview with Dr Massouda Jalal, who is a former Afghan Minister of Women’s Affairs, head of the Jalal Foundation, and one of the leading voices for the empowerment of Afghan women, expressed her grave concern over the peace initiative with the Taliban, which she thought can be detrimental to the rights of women in Afghanistan. She said if Taliban are good then why the US bombed them ten years ago. She raised the valid question whether the policy of the West was wrong at that time or now? There are no good or moderateTaliban, she said. She also criticized the so-called civil society which was represented by certain blue-eyed NGOs and personalities of Afghan government. She termed them just like rubber stamps, which are used by the government for its own political agenda that is why these civil society activists are supporting the government on the reconciliation with the Taliban. Thinking about protecting the rights of women sans representation at high level talks like Peace Council is just a day dreaming. She termed these talks just words without substance. Most of the women which participated at the conference were the daughters and relatives of War Lords and influential politicians, which lack vision for the development of women, she said. Budgeting the Taliban will further militarize them and they will further kill and torture Afghan people.
Dr. Massouda fully supported the declaration of the Coalition against Terrorim of French NGOs named Collectif Contre le Terrorisme (CCT), which says that CCT fully supports the just struggle of Afghan women who refuse to be sacrificed at the altar of a so-called “peace process” made with Taliban and other terrorists. “Instead of risking any agreement with so-called “moderate” Taliban, we insist that women’s rights be upheld and protected without making any compromise. A step in the right direction must be taken by giving them full participation at the Bonn Conference which is to decide on the future of Afghanistan – in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1325, that calls for participation of women in discussions on conflict resolution, as well as the UN Convention on the Elimination of All forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW)!”, the communiqué said.

A welcom surprise at the conference was Munir Mengal, a young, energetic and bold Baloch leader, who graced the occasion by presenting the grievances of the Baloch people to German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany. He told the captivated German and Afghan audience along with the International media that Baloch are the victims of Pakistani State-sponsored religious terrorism since the inception of Pakistan and badly need the full political support of International Community for their independence.
Pakistan response to the conference was no different than its earlier position. Double timing the International Community by supporting the Bonn conference behind the scenes while contrary to official political overtures, embarking upon a new war in Afghanistan to further divide the Afghan nation. Two Suicide attacks targeting Shi’a Muslim minority community both at Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif resulting in killing of at least 60 worshippers and injuring about 200 by a Pakistani based anti-shia militant group LeJ-Almi raise fears that the Pakistani Military establishment is now bent upon creating sectarian rifts in Afghanistan to further destabilize it. Another bomb hit a Shi’a procession in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar but sans casualties. Even the Taliban condemned these attacks as barbaric. Similar attacks in different parts of Afghanistan targeting civilians make it amply clear that Pakistan has not learnt lessons and is bent upon its suicidal policy of self destruction as putting snakes at the back yard of a neighbor can return to harm her too. It is a well know tactics used by ISI to target shia community in Pakistan.
To cut short, it is obvious that the conference was a success as consensus was reached on the future roadmap for Afghanistan. But, a lot has to be done, as the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said at his final press conference with his Afghan counterpart. The Afghans have to take the responsibility for their security and economic development in the days to come. The Afghan Army and Police has to be trained. The corruption and drug trafficking has to be tackled. Every step and measure has to be taken to herald a dawn of peace and prosperity as the Afghan people deserve something better.