Wednesday, October 5, 2011 - 9:29 AM

New deal
Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday signed a strategic partnership agreement -- Afghanistan's first such agreement -- which promises Indian training of Afghan security forces, as well as an increase in trade and cultural relations (WSJ, NYT, Post, AFP, BBC, AP). Five months in the making, the pact was finalized during Karzai's two-day trip to India, a country that has been one of Afghanistan's largest funding sources since 2001, having given nearly $2 billion in aid (Post). The move is likely to further alienate Pakistan from its neighbors, exacerbating tensions caused by Afghan accusations of Pakistani support for militants who have recently launched high-profile attacks within Afghanistan (NYT, AP, Reuters, ET). Karzai on Wednesday said that the pact is not meant as an aggressive move toward Pakistan, which he called "a twin brother," while terming India "a great friend" (ET,BBC, Reuters, AP).
The deputy head of Afghanistan's National Directorate of Security (NDS), Mohammad Yasin Zia, said Tuesday at a press conference that Pakistan has refused to cooperate in the country's investigation into the killing of former Afghan President and High Peace Council leader Burhanuddin Rabbani, and had refused to arrest Taliban leaders in Pakistan (AFP, AP, McClatchy). Zia said, "We want [the Taliban leaders] arrested and handed over to us. We have all their photos, home addresses and even their contact numbers. Our requests [to Pakistan] are very clear, but they are not helping us." Pakistan's Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar and its ambassador to Afghanistan both rejected the claims and reaffirmed their support for the investigation, but recriminations between the two countries continue to demonstrate their deteriorating relationship (ET,AP, Reuters). Meanwhile, Reuters' Zhou Xin reports that China's intentions in Afghanistan are tied more to economic desires than to political motivations, meaning that many Chinese politicians wish to avoid taking on a military role in Afghanistan's future (Reuters).
The head of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) operations for South Asia said on Tuesday that health care is out of reach for many Afghans, often because "roads are mined or blocked by checkpoints, so that people carrying the sick and wounded to hospital face long delays, sometimes with tragic consequences"(AFP, AP). The AP's Kathy Gannon has a must-read on the dire circumstances many Afghans find themselves in ten years after the beginning of the war, while the Guardian reports that British soldiers in Afghanistan have been accused of nearly 100 incidents of killing or wounding Afghan civilians between January 2005 and March 2011 (AP, Guardian).
NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) said Wednesday that it killed a senior commander of the Haqqani Network, known only by the single name Delawar, in an air strike near the Afghan border with Pakistan (ET, Reuters). The United States blames the militant Haqqani Network for the recent attack on the U.S. embassy in Kabul, and various representatives of the U.S. government have alleged links between the group and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI). Finally, Alissa J. Rubin reports on the Taliban's control over cellphone towers in parts of Afghanistan, which adds significantly to their leverage over the population (NYT).
Parting ways
Members of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) on Tuesday quit the Pakistani federal cabinet over disagreements with the leading Pakistan People's Party (PPP), while members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) are holding an internal meeting today to decide whether to rejoin the PPP (ET, Dawn, Dawn). Politicians throughout the Pakistani government on Tuesday condemned the brutal sectarian attack on a bus in Balochistan that left 13 dead, and some members of Pakistan's National Assembly called for the resignation of the Interior Minister and Balochistan Chief Minister because of the incident (ET, Dawn).
A spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad on Tuesday told Dawn that American military aid to Pakistan has been suspended, but not cut off, and is conditional upon Pakistan's "cooperation" in the U.S. fight against terrorism in the region (Dawn). This comes as Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari met with the United Kingdom's shadow Foreign Secretary Douglas Alexander, demanding recognition for Pakistan's sacrifices in combating militant groups while also pledging to continue fighting extremism (ET). And the deputy commander of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Maulvi Faqir Mohammad, downplayed his statement Tuesday that he welcomes talks with the Pakistani government, saying he does not think they are possible until NATO's withdrawal in 2014 (BBC).
Officials announced on Tuesday that Pakistan's power crisis was over after the government released funds to energy providers, but while violent protests subsided in the Punjab demonstrators continued to riot against massive scheduled power cuts in other parts of the country (ET, Dawn, Dawn).
As the death toll from dengue fever in Lahore reached 160 Wednesday, health workers worry about the potential for a devastating outbreak of the disease in Karachi (ET, ET). And UNICEF official Mohamed Cisse told an audience at the inauguration of Pakistan's first family care facility for HIV/AIDS that the care and counseling the center will provide is "desperately needed" in Pakistan (Dawn).
"Some enjoy offices by swimming pools"
Since 9/11, Islamabad's Olympic-level swimming facility has not been used not by the country's top athletes, but by government employees -- most recently Pakistan's Inter-Provincial Coordination Ministry (IPC) (Dawn). The ministers and staff now use the building's changing rooms as offices.
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Indo-Afghan strategic pact will be gone with the wind
This Indo-Afghan strategic pact will be gone with the wind once US troops with draw from Afghanistan and Karzai is gone from the scene.
At this stage in the game after the death of Osama bin Laden and ten long years of war, as far as the US is concerned, the war on terror is over; feeble clarifications by the State Department, that the larger war on Al Qaeda shall continue, are inconsequential. Pakistan knows that by skillfully holding out till now, it is close to getting its proxy regime in place in Kabul. Pakistani and American interests, both short-term and medium-term, converge at this point; a broke and tired America can not afford to look at long-term interests, not at this moment.
And thereby hangs a tale — of Pakistani and American perfidy. The US has been, and shall always remain mindful of the “paranoia of Pakistan”; Islamabad’s sensitivities, its faux victimhood, will always take precedence over Afghanistan in Washington.
Obama administration is already asking Pakistan to provide access to Afghan Taliban leaders safely ensconced under Pakistani ISI/Army's protection. A facade of peace deal as dictated by Pakistan will be reached with Afghan Taliban leaders chosen by Pakistan. US will begin its drawdown and finally exit the theater of a war it is desperate not to be seen as having lost, not so much to the Taliban and Al Qaeda as to the wily Generals of Rawalpindi who have proved to be smarter than the Americans.
That facade of peace will crumble within few years after the departure of US troops and Pakistan will bring Afghanistan under its suzerainty with reimposition of Taliban rule just as it did in 1996 while Uncle Sam will helplessly look the other way.
Support India to save the world
I agree. Just some additional points -
India is already fighting Islamic terrorism for last 25 years, emanating from the same set of countries. The difference is: Now US is in India's side. This is NOTHING NEW for the Indians. They know how to manage this.
When the US and allies left the Afghans after the retreat of the Soviets, have you ever wondered where the "mujahedeen" went? You know it! Don't you?
India is safeguarding it's own interest, and she will continue to do so. With or Without NATO.
In fact, the current Indian doctrine mandates the security forces to be ready for a two front war - China and Pakistan. It's NATO's interests to support India against China, not vice versa! India has enough friends in the neighborhood - Russians, Central Asians and ASEAN; to support her.
Support India-Israel-Afghanistan for NATO’s own interest, unless you want another NY, London or Madrid attack.
India, Afghanistan sign strategic pact
An Afghanistan strategic partnership agreement with India? What that would be for? To put Pakistan between a rock and a hard place? I see a scenario here similar to the "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest" movie! I have no doubt that it was designed in the White House situation room, nor I doubt its eventual complete failure! History, definitely, won't have otherwise!
The fact is that Hamid Karzai was sent to India by the U.S. to pressure it to hunt and eliminate the Haqqani Taliban militia, or face a combined U.S./Afghanistan/ India alliance against itself! I am sure Karzai is not a fool to play that dangerous game with Pakistan, but his position as president of Afghanistan is contingent on U.S. support, and he cannot defy the U.S. and survive either as Afghan president or with his life.
Karzai knows the precedent, and he tries to avoid the "history repeat itself" scenario. When another superpower, the then Soviet Union, occupied Afghanistan in 1979, it enthroned Hafizulla Amin as General Secretary of the Afghan Politburo [ a presidential position in Communist Party structure]. Amin was so loyal to the Soviets at first that he was nicknamed "a reincarnation of Stalin!" But then, his relation with the Kremlin turned sour, and Amin was assassinated in an "internal coup" engineered by the KGB.
Babrak Karmal, a more obedient Soviet puppet took his place.
Karzai knows that his position is tenuous, and that is why his bothers and close associates have been shipping out $ millions to buy properties in Dubai, and stash other $ millions in secret foreign bank accounts. He knows his future won't be in Afghanistan, but outside - like other past U.S. puppets, as the Sha Reza Pahlevi of Iran, Ferdinand Markos of Philippines, etc. But until then, he dances to the U.S. tunes, and follows the U.S. orders given to him by the U.S. ambassador in Kabul. The recent assassination plot against Karzai might have been generated by U.S. sources to remind him that objections to the U.S. plans might bring him a Hafizullah Amin fate! Let's not forget that the U.S. is the sovereign power in Afghanistan, and Karzai is just what Philip Petain's puppet regime was in France under the German occupation by Adolph Hitler!
The only question that remains on this U.S. hatched Afghan-Indian alliance scarecrow to Pakistan is this: "How foolish, or how desperate, is Barack Obama to think that it can scare Pakistan into attacking and wiping out it most strategic asset on its western borders front: The Haqqani Militia?" The answer was given a few days ago by Pakistani prime minister Mr. Gilani: "The U.S. must understand and respect Pakistan's interests!"
Unfortunately, therefore, 3 years after taking office, Obama still seems to be so clueless about the Afghan war and the regional players as he was before taking office! But, more importantly, only a lunatic would believe that it can force a war between the Afghan Pashtun allied with India, and the Pakistan Pashtun allied with Pakistan! And the ultimate folly of this U.S. pushed Afghanistan- India strategic pact agreement? Hamid Karzai is a Pashtun himself! Nikos Retsos, retired professor
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