Rabbani's death and Afghanistan's future
By Anand Gopal
Tuesday, September 20, 2011 - 2:26 PM
Share
Because of a suicide attacker with a bomb in his turban, Afghanistan's dim prospects for peace just got dimmer. The assassination of strongman and key historical and present Afghan political figure Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of the commission meant to negotiate with the Taliban, the High Peace Council (HPC), signals the massive challenges ahead in efforts to end the war.
For many in the Afghan government, Rabbani's appointment to head the HPC was seen as a way to involve the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, and in particular, Rabbani's Jamiat-e-Islami party, in the peace process. Jamiat, which has long been hostile to the Taliban, is an important force in northern Afghanistan, particularly among ethnic Tajiks. But many in the Taliban and in Pakistan met the appointment with derision. As the country's president in the mid-nineties, Rabbani presided over a brutal civil war that killed thousands and helped spawn the rise of the Taliban movement. In the late 90s, Jamiat was one of the Taliban's main foes in the latter's drive to conquer the north. Pakistan, meanwhile, has always viewed the India- and Iran-friendly Rabbani with hostility.
Rabbani, who likely saw the peace process as a way to re-inject himself into the national political scene, initially took to his duties with alacrity. But it was unclear whether he was pursuing a sort of managed surrender (reintegration) or genuine negotiations. In any event, the lack of progress, hostility from the Taliban side and a spate of assassinations appeared to have turned him against a peace deal. He recently told the Afghan newspaper Hasht-e-Sob that the Taliban are a "catastrophe-creating movement" bent on the destruction of the country. "The Taliban's acts have defamed religious scholars and this movement calling itself Taliban creates disaster," he said. "They recruit soldiers among the youth and claim that they are from madrassas."
In a stark message on the anniversary of the death of Afghan national hero and slain Northern Alliance leader Ahmed Shah Massoud, he declared that:
The people are justifying the war they have waged and say that they are fighting the war because of the presence of the foreigners. This is not the case actually. This war was going on prior to the presence of the foreigners here and will continue after the foreigners go from here.
The remarks echo a deep resistance to a peace deal from erstwhile Northern Alliance elements, ranging from former National Directorate of Security (NDS) chief Amrullah Saleh to the powerful governor of Balkh province, Ustad Atta, who denounced efforts at negotiations on Afghan television yesterday.
From the Taliban and Pakistani side, Rabbani and other Northern Alliance figures appear to be seen as impediments to a deal. "These people don't represent Afghanistan," a Taliban official in Quetta told me earlier this summer. "We can't ever have peace with them around." In fact, the spate of assassinations in northern Afghanistan in recent months-Kunduz governor Muhammad Omar, Kunduz Police Chief Abdul Rahman Sayedkheli, head of police for Northern Afghanistan Daoud Daoud, and others-could be seen as the steady elimination of elements standing in the way of a deal favorable to the Taliban.
But it could all backfire. Remaining Northern Alliance figures will likely close ranks and conclude that any sort of rapprochement with the Taliban is impossible. Some, like strongman Abdul Rasoul Sayyaf, have reportedly looked to cultivate ties with India as a counterweight to what they see as an assassination drive spurred by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI). Ex-Alliance commanders, aided by U.S. programs to create local militias, will likely accelerate their drive to rearm, possibly setting the stage for a future civil war.
For now, the immense divides that plague Afghanistan will be on full display. Among some communities, Rabbani will be hailed as a hero, a wizened Islamic scholar and hero of the war against the Russians. In others, he will be remembered for scores of human rights abuses and widespread devastation during the last civil war. Either way, a peace deal in Afghanistan remains as unlikely as ever.
Anand Gopal is an independent journalist covering Afghanistan and the Middle East, and the author of the New America Foundation paper "The Battle for Afghanistan: Militancy and Conflict in Kandahar." Follow him on twitter @anand_gopal_
ADEK BERRY/AFP/Getty Images
EXPLORE:AFPAK, AFPAK POSTER 2, FLASH POINTS, AFGHANISTAN, AFPAK CHANNEL, AL QAEDA, PAKISTAN, TALIBAN 
... which makes no mention of money or, more particularly, the opium trade. Left is an idea of Afghanistan, some sort of debating association that uses guns. I think there's more to it than that.
It was notable in Pakistan about ten days ago that more eyes were turned to commemorating the Massoud assassination than, in that faraway foreign nation, 9/11. This latter is the main public Washington justification for the lengthy American military presence in Afghanistan. It seems nothing other than exhaustion and poverty will ever justify withdrawing from the region. Mt Gopal's account makes clear that Washington has taken on one of the great traditions of the region: a taste for assassination. It doesn't seem to work all that well for anybody other than the arms merchants. The usual winners.
Why not see what Al-Qaeda is to gain from this!
Taliban spokesman has denied any role in the killing. Whatever Rabbani's past, he was the Northern Alliance leader closest to Pakistan and was well respected there. Taliban are looking forward to negotiations because it is their only hope of getting back in power. Mullah Omer's eid message and Haqqani's recent statements also support this contention. Rabbani has been killed by an unknown name, who should not have been considered Omer's representative, except by some very gullible former Taliban leader. BBC has reported that:-
The officials added that as guards approached to search the men, Mr Stanakzai shouted: "We know them. They are our own people."
I would say that only Al-Qaeda benefits from this tragic death. They would like to keep US entangled in Afghanistan while Al-Qaeda shifts focus to Arab lands. Also, US economy will continue to bleed, as do the poor people of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
I am also amazed how quickly the US officials and media started pointing fingers at Haqqani and ISI, when they had not even established the identity of the assailants. What was the rush to announce a per-conceived conclusion, unless US wants to draw a new battle-line in Pakistan?
Why not see US doing this heinous crime through his kindling squads, openly working in Afghanistan?
Well, logical, blame its failure in Afghanistan to others, acting on underlying principal of blaming Pakistan in general and IS in particular .
Remember after its utter failure in Vietnam, what game it played in Cambodia? It is not very distant in the past.
US is trying to play same game in Afghanistan, replacing Pakistan with Cambodia.
And author Mr Anand Gopal is very intelligent and clever indeed! Whenever mentioning Taliban, he has mentioned Pakistan....
Good hasbara Mr. Gopal, congratulations.
Nato must learn........ before its too late!
I think Afghanistan is not japan. After half a century US occupation forces and bases are still stationed in Japan instead of repeated protests of Jepenese People.
On the Afghan mountains so much shells and sharpnels have been dropped that now I think even atom bomb can make hardly any change.
Those who blame Pakistan for the resistance against occupation forces in Afghanistan should remember the fate of British garrision in Afghanistan in 19 th century when only one person was left alive from the Afghan Land just to narrate the story. At that time there was no proxies , no Pakistan to support Afghan tribes.
Although West is very learned but I dont know why they are failing here to learn from the history, why cant they understand the nature of Afghans that no invader has ever enslaved them, why cant they read the writtings on the wall and why they are wasting so much resources of their nations
US appeasement of Pakistan has led to endless Afghan war
This endless war in Afghanistan has been of US’ own making. Taliban insurgency has been fueled by Pakistani government since 2001.
The years of American policy of appeasing Pakistan at any cost have resulted in endless Afghan war.
Intentional and willful denial of Pakistani State’s terrorist connections by Bush administration since 2001 and then Obama administration have brought this untold suffering to not just American troops but to Afghan – civilian and security - people as well.
The seeds of the ‘current Afghan tragedy’ were sowed in Washington when Bush administration decided to allow Musharraf to spirit away by airlift hundreds, if not thousands, of Taliban operatives cornered by the advancing Northern Alliance in Kunduz in November, 2001. Pakistan relocated those Taliban cadres including Mullah Mohammed Omar in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan (now relocated to Karachi by Pakistani ISI to protect them from possible US drone attacks) and Haqqani network (HQN) in North Waziristan from where Mullah Omar’s QST and Haqqani’s HQN have been planning raids in Afghanistan ever since.
U. S. has deliberately deluded itself about Afghan Taliban’s Pakistani connections in fueling and sustaining Afghan insurgency as reported by Matt Waldman in ‘The sun in the sky‘ on 6/13/2010, corroborated by WikiLeaks leaks on 7/25/2010 and then further corroborated by Chris Alexander, Canadian ambassador to Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005 and Deputy Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Afghanistan from 2005 until 2009 in his article on 7/30/2010 titled ‘The huge scale of Pakistan‘s complicity‘.
Duplicitous Pakistan has U. S. under the barrel of a gun - US can NOT use its aid leverage to force Pakistan to stop supporting terrorist groups who kill US/NATO troops in Afghanistan day in and day out because US needs Pakistan’s help in ferrying supplies to those very US/NATO troops.
Previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan, wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly SPONSORING four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, as diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.
How can Pakistani State or its nuclear arsenal be in danger of falling to Islamic fundamentalists when ‘Pakistani Army and ISI are SPONSORING those very Islamic fundamentalists led by Osama bin Laden’s Al Qaeda, Mullah Omar’s QST, Haqqani’s HQN and Hafiz Saeed’s LeT’ as so clearly written by Ambassador Patterson?
Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.
Following are verbatim quotes from what Gen (rtd) Jack Keane (a former Pentagon official) said at a discussion on Afghanistan organized by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank on June 30, 2011:
1. "The truth is, the ISI aids and abets the sanctuaries in Pakistan that the Afghan (Taliban) operate out of. They (ISI) provide training for them, they provide resources for them and they provide intelligence for them. From those sanctuaries, every single day Afghan fighters come into Afghanistan and kill and maim us".
2. "There's a direct relationship of ISI's complicity and the deaths of American soldiers and the catastrophic wounding of those soldiers. The chief of staff (General Kayani) of the Pakistani military is complicit. He used to be the director of ISI. He put the guy (General Ahmed Pasha) in there who is in charge now and he has full knowledge of what I'm just describing".
3. "There are two ammonium nitrate factories in Pakistan. 80 per cent of the explosive devices that are used to kill our soldiers, kill Afghan security forces and kill Afghan people come from Pakistan."
4. "All of what I just said to you, when we confront them with this, they lie to us.”
With Pakistani Army headed by General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, who once headed ISI, former President Musharraf as well as current Pakistani civilian government repeatedly lying to the United States, America‘s Afghan mission was doomed from the very beginning.
Late this time in Pakistan bashing!!
(6)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE