The Pakistan-China spat that wasn't

By Arif Rafiq Share

After last month's violence in China's Xinjiang province, perpetrated by minority Muslim Uighurs against Han Chinese settlers -- blamed by local officials on Pakistan -- trained militants -- some analysts have claimed that Sino-Pak relations are under serious strain. But such assessments prove to be presumptuous when China's challenges in Xinjiang and its relations with Pakistan relations are more thoroughly examined.

First, experts on Xinjiang doubt that Pakistan-trained militants are responsible for the violence in the first place.  Most likely, the statements by Chinese officials in Xinjiang are attempts to avoid discussion of the domestic causes of Uighur militancy, including religious and ethnic discrimination and a systematic campaign to dilute the native Uighur presence through a deluge of Han Chinese.

Secondly, the Waziristan-based East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM)-the group Chinese officials claimed orchestrated the attacks-poses a marginal threat to the Chinese state at best. The ETIM is small (some claim virtually defunct), faces an adversary in Beijing that is popular with many of the world's Muslims, and lacks a truly dedicated sponsor. It is tangential (though not irrelevant) to al-Qaeda's global jihad and completely irrelevant to Pakistan's more limited jihadi axis.

Indeed, jihadi groups supported by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), such as Lashkar-e Taiba (LeT), are loathe to support the ETIM. Though Pakistan's mainstream Islamists and state-backed jihadis are deeply hostile to predominantly non-Muslim Western countries and India, they treat their country's alliance with communist China as a sacred cow.

Earlier this year, Hafiz Saeed, head of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (an LeT front group), praised China's decision to issue distinct visas from residents of Indian-administered Kashmir. And in 2009, Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the-then head of the Islamist group Jamaat-i Islami, visited China after an invitation from Beijing. Pakistan's political right, including its Islamists, criticized President Asif Ali Zardari during his first two years in office for distancing his government from Beijing.

Thirdly, for China, Pakistan is at least as much part of the solution in Xinjiang as it is part of the problem. China is keen on linking the landlocked, economically-backward region to sea via Pakistan, which occupies key littoral space along the Arabian Sea near Persian Gulf oil shipping lanes. Pakistan is expanding the Karakoram Highway to China, and ambitious plans to develop rail links and a gas pipeline from Pakistan to Xinjiang have also been floated. And given the closeness of Sino-Pak ties, it is likely that the ISI is very forthcoming in sharing ETIM-related intelligence with its Chinese counterpart.

Fourthly, the Sino-Pak alliance is far too deep and complex to be rocked by a single event. While China's contributions to economic and social development assistance to Pakistan pale in comparison to those of the United States, military-to-military and political cooperation between Beijing and Rawalpindi has only increased in recent years.

Pakistan and China jointly manufacture a range of military equipment, including the JF-17 multi-role fighter aircraft and F-22P frigate. And Pakistan is often the first foreign recipient of Chinese military hardware. This year, China agreed to provide Pakistan with 50 JF-17s without cost and dozens of J-10 fighter jets under a loan with generous terms. Pakistan also plans to be one of the first purchasers of the Chinese-manufactured Yilong, an armed drone similar to the Predator. Furthermore, over the decades, China has been the major source of external assistance for Pakistan's civil and military nuclear programs.

In a possible sign that the Chinese are upping the ante, an engineering regiment of the Peoples Liberation Army reportedly participated in Pakistani military exercises along the border with India's Rajasthan state- the first detection of Chinese troops ever on India's western border, according to the Times of India. However, it should be noted that this report could be embellished or entirely made up by Indian hard-liners in order to advance the myth of an aggressive Sino-Pak alliance against India.

While Pakistan is in no danger of losing Chinese friendship, it should reject the fantastical notion that strengthening relations with China will give it space to sever ties with the United States and indefinitely continue hostilities with India. Both China and another major Pakistani ally, Saudi Arabia, have massively expanded trade with India in the past decade, reaping benefits for their respective populations.

Pakistan's civilian and military leadership must develop a strategy for their citizens to also prosper in what looks to be an Asian century. To achieve this, Pakistan can still work with the Chinese to achieve minimal deterrence vis-à-vis India and perhaps even exclude it from some areas of competition, but it will require the resolution of outstanding disputes between New Delhi and Islamabad and the liberalization of trade between the two neighbors.

Arif Rafiq is president of Vizier Consulting, LLC, which provides strategic guidance on Middle East and South Asian political and security issues. He writes at the Pakistan Policy Blog (www.pakistanpolicy.com).

Jason Lee-Pool/Getty Images

 

MARTY MARTEL

6:19 PM ET

August 12, 2011

PakistanI government-sponsored jihadi axis has bigger fish 2 fry

Mr. Rafiq is right - China does NOT have to fear from Pakistan’s state-sponsored jihadi axis.

This governmental jihadi axis has bigger fish to fry in Afghanistan - that of US/NATO troops, never mind that US is sustaining bankrupt Pakistani state.

Duplicitous Pakistan has U. S. under the barrel of a gun - US can NOT use its aid leverage to force Pakistan to stop supporting terrorist groups who kill US/NATO troops in Afghanistan day in and day out because US needs Pakistan’s help in ferrying supplies to those very US/NATO troops.

Previous US ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan, wrote in a secret review in 2009 that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly SPONSORING four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, as diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.

Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.

Following are verbatim quotes from what Gen (rtd) Jack Keane said at a discussion on Afghanistan organized by the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank on June 30, 2011:

1. "The truth is, the ISI aids and abets the sanctuaries in Pakistan that the Afghan (Taliban) operate out of. They provide training for them, they provide resources for them and they provide intelligence for them. From those sanctuaries, every single day Afghan fighters come into Afghanistan and kill and maim us".

2. "There's a direct relationship of ISI's complicity and the deaths of American soldiers and the catastrophic wounding of those soldiers. The chief of staff of the Pakistani military is complicit. He used to be the director of ISI. He put the guy in there who is in charge now and he has full knowledge of what I'm just describing".

3. "This partnership has got to be based on that harsh reality. There are two ammonium nitrate factories in Pakistan. 80 per cent of the explosive devices that are used to kill our soldiers, kill Afghan security forces and kill Afghan people come from Pakistan."

4. "All of what I just said to you, when we confront them with this, they lie to us.

With Pakistani Army headed by General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, who once headed ISI, repeatedly lying to the United States, America‘s Afghan mission was doomed from the very beginning.

For deliberately ignoring Taliban’s Pakistani connections, US deserves to be duped by Pakistan.

 

KING SOLOMON

11:47 PM ET

August 12, 2011

Countering Hindoo Zionist propaganda

1. "The truth is, the Pentagon aids and abets the Christian Zionist sanctuaries in America. From those sanctuaries, every single day Christian Zionist fighters go and die in Afghanistan".

2. "There's a direct relationship of Pentagon's complicity and the deaths of American soldiers and the catastrophic wounding of those soldiers. The commander in chief of the American military is complicit".

3. "This partnership has got to be based on that harsh reality. There are many ammunition factories in America. 99 per cent of the explosive devices that are used to kill Afghan people come from America."

4. "All of what I just said to you, when we confront them with this, they lie to us"

Aurangzeb Khan
lalqila.wordpress.com

 

P N ESWARAN

4:19 AM ET

August 13, 2011

China's Aim

I agree with Rafiq that the recent spat does not rock Sino-Pak relations. China has delivered two leading messages to Pakistan when Pakistan is trying to coddle to China. The messages are:
1. China too believes Pakistan to be the epicenter of terror for which it has to 'do more'
2. Crush Uighur rebels in your soil as a precondition for Sino-Pak relations to move forward.
Pakistan has further exposed it's vulnerability by rushing the ISI don to China.

 

EGISTUBAGUS

3:33 AM ET

September 4, 2011

stop diskrimination

please stop religious and ethnic discrimination and a systematic campaign to dilute the native Uighur presence through a deluge of Han Chinese.china need to give equal right for its people to live with their people want. although china is communist i hope china give muslim uighur opportunity to do their religion
//gliderforbaby, glidersfornursery, littlecastlegliders//, before claim that Waziristan--the group Chinese officials claimed orchestrated the attacks-poses a marginal threat to the Chinese state at best. i thinks china government need to evaluate their act/policy to uighur muslim. //nurserychairs//glidersfornursery// is their have give a freedom of religion right
//beststeamiron, electricteapot, biometricsafe //, last but not least pakistan need china to fight india

 

PRISCILA

1:20 AM ET

September 9, 2011

Duplicitous Pakistan has U.

Duplicitous Pakistan has U. S. under the barrel of a gun - US can NOT use its aid leverage to force Pakistan to stop supporting terrorist groups homeprojectswho kill US/NATO troops in Afghanistan day in and day out because US needs Pakistan’s help in ferrying supplies to those very US/NATO troops.