Friday, July 15, 2011 - 8:09 AM

Future planning
Siobhan Gorman reports that
information recovered from Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad compound
indicates that the slain terrorist leader was in the initial stages of
planning an attack for the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks with his
"operations chief" Attiyah Abd al-Rahman (WSJ).
Bin Laden and Rahman were discussing names of operatives to be
involved, according to the seized documents; Gorman also notes that most
analysts have finished their review of the documents, but have found
little actionable intelligence.
The organization Médecins Sans
Frontières lashed out at the CIA's use of a vaccination program as cover
in the hunt for bin Laden, as U.S. officials defended the operation as
necessary to track down the al-Qaeda leader (Guardian, CNN).
And Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) has
reportedly offered custody of top al-Qaeda-linked terrorist Umar Patek,
who was arrested in January in Abbottabad, to the Philippines (AP).
Seeking
to patch up a relationship strained by the raid that killed bin Laden,
top NATO and U.S. commander in Afghanistan Gen. David Petraeus and his
successor Lt. Gen. John Allen met Thursday with Pakistani army chief
Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani in Rawalpindi, while Pakistani intelligence
head Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha met with acting CIA director Michael
Morell at CIA headquarters (AP, AFP, Dawn, ET, ET, Reuters).
Pakistan is reportedly moving away from demands that U.S. military
personnel vacate the Shamsi airbase in Baluchistan, which is believed to
have been used to launch drone strikes into Pakistan's tribal areas (AP).
The
United States has also reportedly told Pakistani finance minister Hafiz
Shaikh that the cutoff of nearly $800 million in planned military aid
to Pakistan will not impact civilian aid to the country (Dawn, ET).
Shaikh has been attempting to convince the governor of Pakistan's
Central Bank, Shahid Kardar, to reverse his decision to resign his post (Dawn).
Internal security
Karachi
is once again calm after the leader of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement
(MQM) Altaf Hussain called for an end to protests, and Zulfikar Mirza,
the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) minister whose anti-MQM statements
prompted renewed violence in the city, issued a video apology (Dawn, ET, DT, ET, DT, AFP, ET, Dawn, DT).
Pakistan's National Assembly will convene next week to discuss the
situation in Karachi, which has taken a serious toll on the economy in
the city, Pakistan's commercial hub (Dawn, ET, DT).
Two
Pakistani soldiers were killed Friday when their vehicle hit a roadside
bomb in South Waziristan, while Pakistani military spokesman Gen. Athar
Abbas asserted in an interview that militants conducting attacks in
Pakistan's tribal areas have safe havens in Afghanistan (Dawn, Dawn).
And on Thursday a court in Lahore granted bail after 14 years in prison
to Malik Ishaq, a leader of the banned group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and
suspected planner of a deadly 2009 attack against Sri Lanka's cricket
team while it was on tour in Pakistan (NYT, Tel, AP).
Two
stories round out the news: Pakistan's remittances have surged to an
all-time high, as expatriate Pakistani workers reportedly sent $11.2
billion home in the last fiscal year (ET).
And Reuters files a story from a desert town built by Pakistan's
minority Ahmadi sect, who are not considered Muslims under the country's
laws, and have faced growing threats in recent years (Reuters).
Searching for clues
The
Post reports that Sardar Muhammad, the close Karzai family associate
who shot and killed Afghan president Hamid Karzai's half-brother Ahmed
Wali Karzai on Tuesday, had worked with the United States in the past
against the Taliban (Post).
However, an Afghan official and a Karzai family member told the paper
that Muhammad may have been recruited by the Taliban for the attack.
French
president Nicolas Sarkozy announced Thursday that he was convening a
special emergency meeting to strengthen security measures for French
troops in Afghanistan, who suffered their worst losses this week since
2008 (FT, Reuters). He also sent his army chief to Afghanistan to begin planning the new security guidelines (AFP). Bonus read: Stéphane Taillat, "Retreat, discontent, and misunderstanding: France in Afghanistan (FP).
Finally,
the U.S. government requested Thursday that a judge order the return of
a classified document detailing criteria for holding prisoners at
Bagram Air Base that the U.S. military mistakenly gave the American
Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) (AP). And nine civilians have been killed in insurgent violence in the past two days in southern Afghanistan (AP). Bonus read: Erica Gaston, "Afghanistan's civilians in the crosshairs" (FP).
Flashpoint
Indian
foreign minister SM Krishna said Thursday that this week's deadly
bombings in Mumbai would not delay talks with Pakistan tentatively
planned for the end of this month (ET, DT, Bloomberg). Indian authorities continue to investigate the bombings, which killed 21 people (FT, AJE, Tel, Dawn, NYT, WSJ).
And Indian security forces have killed three suspected rebels in Indian-administered Kashmir (AP).
Rare find
Camera
traps have documented the existence of a "healthy population" of nearly
endangered snow leopards in Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor (AP). There are believed to be only 4,500-7,500 snow leopards remaining in the world.
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Unless Bin Laden gave instructions through a Ouija board, I have serious doubts that this story is anything more than propaganda.
He died in 2001.
Report - bin Laden wanted 9/11/11 attack
The information is interesting to analysts, because it may suggest a subtle shift in terror planning. Historically, al Qaeda has attacked when it's ready, not necessarily on holidays and anniversaries. Sources say the memos do not indicate the potential plots are "operational." Instead, they seem to represent an "al Qaeda wish list," loose aspirational outlines for strikes the terror group hoped to launch. An intelligence source said that there were also drafts of speeches found in the intel haul. Although there was no real indication that bin Laden was in a command and control posture for al Qaeda, he was believed to be getting and giving information and being kept in the loop; the feeling is that the terror network's operations are being run out of Pakistan. There was also data on financial transactions confiscated and analysts and investigators are trying to follow the trails, looking to further develop linkage to supporters pertaining to fundraising, cash flow, and other networks feeding into al Qaeda. Sara Jay, CIA analyst will try to develop the source of his funding and people responsible for fund raising. The memos do not mention any particular mode or method for potential attacks. Additionally, it's not at all clear if any assignments had been passed out to terror operatives. No proof of any imminent plot has been uncovered, but one official said we have an unprecedented window into bin Laden's world, and new insights into the broad al Qaeda network.
(2)
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