Après AWK le déluge?

By Gerard Russell, July 12, 2011 Tuesday, July 12, 2011 - 3:10 PM Share

Ahmad Wali Karzai's death comes at a time when the U.S. is talking of withdrawal from Afghanistan, negotiations are being attempted with the Taliban, and a series of assassinations have eliminated some of Afghanistan's most capable military leaders. President Hamid Karzai, true to Afghan tradition, put on a brave face at his press conference with French President Sarkozy shortly after hearing the news. But he showed signs of strain; the mood behind the scenes in the Arg, Kabul's Presidential Palace, must be a grim one.

This is not only because the death of any man's brother is a hard thing to bear, but because this brother was an important part of the Karzai dynasty. Ahmad Wali's militias and his revenue-raising networks - widely believed to include drugs trafficking -- and his links with the CIA, were a significant part of the Karzai power-base in their home region of Loya Kandahar. "No-one can be as powerful as he was," one friend of mine from Kandahar opined; "he had tribal support, money and power."

Some experts have suggested that this is precisely the opportunity that has now opened up, for a re-arrangement of political power in the Kandahar region that would re-enfranchise individuals and tribal groups alienated by internecine conflict, poor government outreach, and active exclusion from patronage and support networks. Others suggest that another powerful individual is bound at least partially to fill the gap -- someone such as Aref Noorzai, who was Ahmad Wali's sister-in-law's husband, and whose brother is already on the Kandahar provincial council (with plenty of other relatives in strategic positions, too); or Gul Agha Sherzai, the former governor of the province, whose family also have big business interests there. The third alternative is chaos. Ahmad Wali's networks of armed men, after all, will still exist - with or without an official sponsor. Big competitors, trying to move onto Ahmad Wali's turf, may increase the internecine conflict rather than reduce it, which in turn will make it easier for the Taliban to continue to encroach on Kandahar City and its environs.

But perhaps the bigger question is: What effect will the death of President Karzai's most controversial, but also apparently highly trusted and powerful younger brother-cum-lieutenant, have on the President's morale and motivation? Will it make him seek revenge, if the Taliban truly are responsible? Or-with or without a peace deal with the Taliban, which seems a more distant prospect now as the Afghan state visibly weakens -- will it make him keener to make an exit, when his term ends in 2014?

Gerard Russell was in Afghanistan between 2007 and 2009.

Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

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MARTY MARTEL

3:29 PM ET

July 12, 2011

Afghanistan pays for U. S. blindness

Afghanistan has been paying for US folly of wooing Pakistan at the expense of Afghanistan.

Afghan President Karzai had told a news conference in Kabul on 7/29/2010 after WikiLeaks leaks that “The time has come for our international allies to know that the war against terrorism is not in Afghanistan’s homes and villages. But rather this war is in the sanctuaries, funding centers and training places of terrorism which are in Pakistan. Our international allies have the ability to destroy these Pakistani sanctuaries, but the question is why they are not doing it?“

Even Afghanistan’s national security advisor Rangin Dadfar Spanta had asked a similar question in a Washington Post article on 8/23/2010: “While we are losing dozens of men and women to terrorist attacks every day, the terrorists’ main mentor (Pakistan) continues to receive billions of dollars in aid and assistance. How is this fundamental contradiction justified? Despite facing a growing domestic terror threat, Pakistan “continues to provide sanctuary and support to the Quetta Shura, the Haqqani network, the Hekmatyar group and Al Qaeda. Dismantling the terrorist infrastructure “requires confronting the state of Pakistan that still sees terrorism as a strategic asset and foreign policy tool”.

But such Afghan pleas fall on deaf years in Washington where powers to be are hell bent of appeasing Pakistan at the expense of Afghanistan.

HEATH TORTORELLI

6:10 AM ET

August 11, 2011

Après AWK

The flooding that overwhelmed vast stretches of New Orleans last summer and rendered homeless a large portion of its population has taught Patrick Quinn some things. For example, there's the nifty alternative use he found for his otherwise worthless cellphone when the city's telecommunications system collapsed. tori black is a New Orleans native, a hotel impresario of modest local renown for whom Hurricane Katrina has been not just a disaster but also a once-in-a-lifetime chance to realize his dream of becoming the Donald Trump of the Gulf Coast. In those first weeks after what some simply refer to as the Big K, Quinn frequently found himself prowling around dark and deserted properties throughout the city's flood zones. That's how he learned that a mobile phone, especially the bulky, all-in-one cellphone he carries, gives off a surprisingly bright beam of light.