With
apologies to Shakespeare for appropriating his memorable line from A Winter's Tale, I worry about the state
of Pakistan expertise that
is fading from the scene in key Washington
policy making positions. It must be that time of the political season: the
third year of a President's first term, when exhaustion sets in and weary but
smart specialists head off into civilian jobs before the big exodus that
follows the end of the first term. But, at a time when the United States' relations with Pakistan are being tested severely,
who will fill these positions and fast, and how many of the new recruits will
be able to hit the ground running? And who will establish the personal
relationships in country, without which not much can be achieved in
consultations with Pakistani counterparts?
At the White
House, economics expert David Lipton, who knows Pakistan extremely well and
knows official and business partners in the country better than most U.S.
interlocutors, reportedly is heading back to the International
Monetary Fund. There, his Pakistan
experience may come into play immediately this summer, as the economy in that
country nose dives in the wake of parliamentary opposition to a budget that
attempted to introduce reform by stealth, under a single budgetary resolution.
National Security Council Senior Director John Tien has departed into civilian
ranks. Director Shamila Chaudhary is heading to the think tank world and the
private sector. After two years at the NSC, Eric Lebson is heading to Australia.
That leaves Lt. Gen. (retired) Doug Lute, who stayed on beyond the Bush years,
holding down the fort -- but for how long? At the State Department, the old
team the late Amb. Richard Holbrooke assembled has lost Vali Nasr and soon may
lose Alex Evans, both of whom know Pakistan's politics intimately. The
Vice President has lost his South Asia expert Herro Mustafa to the U.S. embassy in New Delhi. At the Department of Defense, the
chief negotiator and persuader for the United States with the Pakistan
military, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen, is departing
soon, leaving big boots to fill. And in the country itself, the Office of the
Defense Representative in Pakistan
will be losing both its head Vice Adm. Mike Lefever and his deputy, Brig.
Gen. Mike Nagata.
Meanwhile, aid coordinator Robin Raphel is coming back to the States.
One assumes
there must be someone planning all these moves and coming up with a new team
that will work with Pakistan
to retrieve a relationship that has come under tremendous stress in recent
weeks. It is clear that the timing of these departures is unfortunate in the
wake of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, and related events. Perhaps a new
team is standing by. Perhaps not. It is not clear who is coordinating Pakistan policy today in Washington,
and even less clear who is willing to take leadership on Pakistan in Washington
and in South Asia. But what is certain is that
difficult days lie ahead for an already turbulent situation.
Shuja Nawaz is director of the South Asia
Center at the Atlantic
Council.
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