The bin Laden aftermath: The future of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship
By Shuja Nawaz, May 2, 2011
Monday, May 2, 2011 - 3:29 PM
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"Overthe years, I've repeatedly made clear that we would take action within Pakistanif we knew where bin Laden was. That is what we've done. But it's important tonote that our counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan helped lead us to binLaden and the compound where he was hiding. Indeed, bin Laden had declared waragainst Pakistanas well, and ordered attacks against the Pakistani people."
Withthose words, PresidentBarack Obama acknowledged Pakistan'srole in the killing of Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, a military cantonment, ina house that lay half a mile or so from the Pakistan MilitaryAcademy. It isunclear why, if Pakistani intelligence had the leads, it would not or could notfollow up itself and do the job.
Ata time when United States-Pakistan relations are going south in a hurry overaid, Afghanistan, and U.S. intelligence operations inside Pakistan, bin Laden'sdeath leaves more questions on the table than answers. How could four U.S.helicopters operate some 120 miles inside Pakistani territory and three of themexit without being detected? Were they allowed to do so? And by whom? Or was itPakistan's inability tointercept them that allowed the U.S.raid to proceed without a hitch? Clearly the civilian government was firstinformed when President Obama spoke with President Asif Ali Zardari after theoperation was over. If Zardari's military was in the know, and he was not, thisspeaks volumes about the internal distrust within Pakistan's establishment. So far,it appears the United States kept the Pakistan military in the dark. What maybe more troubling for the U.S.side is the likelihood that elements of the Pakistani establishment were awareof bin Laden's presence in Abbottabad and kept it hidden. However remote apossibility this may seem, this question will be asked in Washington D.C.in the weeks to come.
Americanboots on the ground are much more serious in terms of invasion of Pakistan'sterritory and disregard for its sovereignty than the remote drone attacks thathave so angered Pakistani officials and politicians lately. The Pakistanimilitary's official reaction to the death of bin Laden will be telling. If thisoperation was carried out in close cooperation with the United States,then the trajectory of this declining relationship may be reversed. If not,then the velocity of the decline will increase at a time when the mood in Washingtonseems to be shifting to black toward Pakistan, on the Hill and also inparts of the Obama administration.
TheStrategic Dialogue that was bringing the UnitedStates and Pakistan to the table to focus oncommon objectives has been suspended for now. Both sides are attempting torevive the relationship after the imbroglio over Raymond Davis and the C.I.A.'soperations inside Pakistan.The Pakistanis demand respect. So does the United States. Neither side shouldtry to pull a fast one over the other. They are codependent in the fightagainst militancy and terror: the United States in trying to exit Afghanistanin an orderly fashion, Pakistan in trying to contain its internal insurgencies.The stakes may be higher for Pakistansince it remains captive of its geography and heavily tied to the U.S. aidprogram and the Coalition Support Funds that sustain its battles against thePakistani Taliban. It may be a bad marriage, once again, but not one thataffords an easy divorce. Perhaps a separation, followed by reconciliation?
BothPakistan and the U.S. should becareful to keep the tone of public rhetoric down and continue the privatedialogues that may yet yield agreement on common objectives. Pakistan needs U.S.help to create the stability inside Pakistan that will allow it tofight the immediate war on poverty and underdevelopment. Faced with a risingpopulation and an ever present youth bulge, Pakistan needs to begin to governitself better, think long term, and eschew factional politics. Its militaryneeds the tools and the time to keep the militancy at bay but it also needsclose cooperation with the civilian agencies to help it fight against terrorismin its multifarious forms inside Pakistan.
Osamabin Laden's death may exacerbate the terrorist conditions inside Pakistan forthe short run. Followers and sympathizers of al-Qaeda may well try to seekrevenge against U.S.interests and the Pakistani state. But the death of al-Qaeda's founder shouldnot change the course that Pakistanis following to battle militancy at home and needs to follow in itsneighborhood. Nor should the UnitedStates pack up and summarily exit theregional stage once more.
Shuja Nawaz, theauthor of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within,directs the South Asia Centerat the Atlantic Council.
Putting myself into OBL's mindframe, I don't think I would move into a newly built special for the purpose high security compound in the middle of a Pakistani military cantonment and next door to the Pakistani military academy without ironclad assurances from the most authoritative sources that I would be safe from betrayal.
Enough of Pakistan's misinformation campaign
Being a Pakistani national, Shuja Nawaz may think it a ‘remote possibility’ for Pakistani government to know about precise location of Osama’s residence.
But then Shuja himself is in denial mode just like Pakistani governments - military as well as civilian - about its terrorist connections all along.
Pakistani officials have issued umpteen denials about Osama being on Pakistani soil - see Osama bin Who?: A decade of denials and downplaying from Pakistani leaders. BY CHARLES HOMANS, JOSHUA KEATING, DAVID KENNER in this afpak channel.
Fact remains that Pakistan believes that U. S. fight against Taliban in Afghanistan is failing as evidenced by Pakistani prime minister Gillani advising Afghan President Karzai to dump U. S. in favor of China. Afghan government had NO reason to mislead the world despite Pakistani denials about the same.
Fact remains that ‘Pakistan's Army and ISI are covertly SPONSORING four militant groups - Haqqani‘s HQN, Mullah Omar‘s QST, Al Qaeda and LeT - and will not abandon them for any amount of US money‘, as written in 2009 by former U. S. ambassador Anne Patterson to Pakistan and as diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks show.
Ambassador Patterson had NO reason to mislead her own State Department and U. S. government.
The world has to say ‘enough is enough’ about this misinformation campaign waged by Pakistani establishment.
Very unusal for this article that Mr Pasha seems to NOT have edited this article before submission! There are mote then 10 typing errors - usually missing "space" between two words - an error I make when I am typing under high emotions!
Mr Pasha and Pakistani elite would try to make "back to business as usual" sales pitch and how much USA and Pakistan need each other. Fact is, World's (even if declining) sole superpower needs Failed state of Pakistan to extricate its troops safely and in time. After that, well Good luck to Pakistan!
What most Pakistanis and Mr Pasha forget is that it is not only West that is accusing Pakistan of harbouring terrorist. Iran, India and Afghanistan - 3 immidiate neighbours of Pakistan do the same, with China doing it behind the curtains!
When will Mr Pasha and his ilk understand that this "bringing out Pegions from Hat" trick has lost its sale by date and they need to face the HARD TRUTH - that Pakistan as a STATE AND as a SOCIETY is nurturing Terrorists!
Replace Mr Pasha (ISI chief) with Mr Nawaz
And you will see the point I am making in terms of typing error! :-)
"What maybe more troubling for the U.S.side is the likelihood that elements of the Pakistani establishment were awareof bin Laden's presence in Abbottabad and kept it hidden. However remote apossibility this may seem, this question will be asked in Washington D.C.in the weeks to come."
If you think this possibility is "remote" you are either being decieved or deceiving yourself, sir. We're simply not buying it anymore.
I'm happy to see americans finally walk around with the big balls we claim to have. lecturing and scolding pakistan might be fitting, but let's not forget that osama bin laden is an american product. we created him, trained him, funded him and nurtured him. so let's not get ahead of ourselves here. on another note we are being told that pakistan had no idea about this operation, right? yet this whole operation took place just a few minutes away from pakistan's equilavent of west point and in a neighborhood where many of pakistan's elite and generals live. yet we are to believe that american choppers flew 120 miles all the way from afghanistan into abbotobad and carried out a 40 minute shoot out and no single reaction from Pakistan's air defense system (which we sold to them). don't u think we woulda seen choppers or jets dispatched to the area to close the air space. special forces, and military police shut down the area. u mean to tell me if something similiar went down hear our west point, that someone could fly in and out and carry out a whole operation and we wouldn't know until after it was over?? yes i 'm aware that our capabilites are way better than pakistan's but pakistan military is well equiped and well trained, they would not let something like this happen in an area like that. There is way more to this than what we are being told. perhaps pakistan has to play the role of a fool in order to keep the retaliation to a minimum. remember, those loyal to bin laden can't strike america so pakistan will be their target.
SIDROCK23
Do you even understand the black spaces in radar network or do you even know that how terrain and earth rotations are used to escape all those air defenses. The US administration has clearly stated that they have not informed anyone till the operation was over. Its a gross incompetence of Pakistani system and then possibility of complicity why OBL was there so long.
Whether they acknowledge or not the pakistan government is either involved in it or dont have control over the state....
US aid to the Pakistani military is over.
Al-Qaida is a client of the ISI, just like J-e-M and the Haqqani network and Hekmatyar and now the Pakistani Taliban, just like the murderers of Benazhir Bhutto. Until the Pakistani army "takes care of" the ISI and the Islamists in its ranks, they are an enemy of the United States, as well as India and Afghanistan.
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