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Drone strikes aren't the real issue in U.S.-Pakistan relations

By Daud Khattak, April 18, 2011 Share

Earlier today, the provincial assembly of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province passed a resolution asking for an end to drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal areas. The resolution was presented by Bashir Ahmad Bilour, the province's Senior Minister, a member of the secular Awami National Party (ANP) and one of Pakistan's strongest voices against the Taliban. As recently as a few months ago, the ANP leaders privately supported the drone strikes, arguing that drones are the best available means against al-Qaeda and Taliban and even describing them as "ababeel" a term used to describe small birds who came to the rescue of Mecca during a Sixth-Century siege.

This change of heart follows the explosion in the past two months of official criticism of the drone strikes, first initiated by army chief Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani's public condemnation March 17 after a strike allegedly killed up to 40 tribesmen (though the United States disputes this claim), and which erupted again last week after two strikes were carried out just days after a meeting in which Pakistani intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha is believed to have asked CIA director Leon Panetta to curtail the strikes. Yet the dramatic escalation in rhetoric is not just about political posturing, but rather demonstrates the extent to which both the civilian government and the army see the need to shore up their credibility in reaction to events in Pakistan and elsewhere.

Between 2004 and 2010, both the relatively weak Pakistani government and the country's powerful army opted for silence, often considered consent in legal terms, over the strikes. Despite the chorus of public disapproval from some religious parties and public commentators over those years, neither the army generals, nor the civilian governments, both the previous and present, showed any signs of resistance to the strikes. Instead, they kept their focus on gaining more aid for their own counterterrorism programs even as their U.S. and NATO allies regularly insisted that Pakistan "do more" to confront the growing terrorist threat within its borders. The government's actions only began to change late last year, with the cutting off the supply route to Afghanistan in response to a cross-border helicopter strike that killed three Pakistani Frontier Corps members. The blockade was followed by attacks on fuel tankers and trucks carrying oil and goods for NATO troops in Afghanistan, which gutted scores of vehicles and goods worth millions of dollars, before the crossing was opened.

It is clear that the recent uptick in aggressive rhetoric is prelude to broader Pakistani attempts to renegotiate the relationship with the United States.

One area of the relationship that Pakistan would like to revise is the ongoing secret (or not-so-secret) talks with the Taliban. President Asif Ali Zardari's recent trip to Turkey, believed to be a facilitator in the talks, followed by the visit of Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, along with General Kayani and ISI Chief General Ahmad Shuja Pasha to Kabul, indicate that the Pakistani government is attempting to insert itself into the talks with or without U.S. consent. Members of Karzai's inner circle have indicated privately that the conversations were fruitful, and both sides expressed satisfaction with the meeting, in which both sides agreed to set up a "joint peace commission" to help end the Taliban insurgency.

The Pakistani army also wants to continue working to decrease the substantial Indian leverage with the Afghan leadership; the army is the key force handling the country's Afghan, India and U.S. policies in addition to several other key areas of "national interests," and the generals will likely not accept a solution in Afghanistan that does not keep India at bay.

And while the presence of a "large number" of CIA operatives in Pakistan may bother the country's intelligence services, as evidenced by the objections raised during meeting with Panetta last week, the real issue with the CIA's presence in the country is the specific intelligence gathering operations related to the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a key concern for America's military and intelligence services, as well as Pakistan's nuclear program. According to Pakistani electronic media and various reports, CIA contractor Raymond Davis was gathering intelligence on the Pakistani nuclear program and the LeT operations inside and outside Pakistan when he allegedly shot and killed two men in Lahore in January.

As part of a new deal, Pakistan will likely push for guarantees for its nuclear program and a reduction in U.S. efforts against LeT, both considered key strategic pillars for the country's security establishment, and both part of efforts to constrain Indian influence in what Pakistan considers its backyard.

Finally, the condemnation of drone attacks and harsh statements about America's military and covert presence in Pakistan - despite military and government's heavy involvement with both - serve currently to bolster the image of both the army and the government with the Pakistani public. Both have recently lost trust of the people in the face of the prevailing lawlessness, terrorism and military operations in different parts of the country, and the release of Raymond Davis after the payment of "blood money" to the victims' families.

While the current government is often a target of media criticism, private Pakistani television stations no longer go out of their way to praise the army, which has recently been subject to critiques over several issues, including the army's refusal to rein in warlords such as the Khyber-based Mangal Bagh and even the army and intelligence support for militant groups such as the Haqqani Network and LeT. By constantly bolstering a negative image of the U.S. in Pakistan, the armed forces can regain its "hero" image with the people, while obscuring the double game it plays with the United States, alternately combating militant groups and keeping others at the ready for future use in Afghanistan, Kashmir, or even India.

The political leadership, on the other hand, has had no other option but to submit to the army's will, and joined the chorus of condemnation of the United States only after the army took the lead. Both Gilani and Zardari believe that public opposition to the drone strikes will keep parties like Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam or the opposition Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) from scoring political points because of the issue.

Ultimately, the current round of opposition shows once again the willingness of the Pakistani leadership to alternately "push" and "pull" in their relationship with the United States, constantly reacting to the changing domestic, regional and international political situation. Pakistan will tolerate or encourage the drone strikes in the future, as long as its status as a regional fulcrum and its strategic interests remain protected in the long-run.

Daud Khattak is a Pashtun journalist currently working for the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Pashto-language station Radio Mashaal.

Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images

 

MORPHEYOUS

11:42 PM ET

April 18, 2011

Death from Above

Great article, amazing how technology has progressed so far that no longer humans have to be put in harms way in order to push a government will to another. I thought war was a game of diminishing returns until the one with the least men, loses. Not the case nowadays, just a push of a button on a internet enabled video game and bang, real people die.. I guess it is who has the most money and the best technology wins.

Oh Well Such is the meaningless of life.

Morpheyous
Internet Marketing Specialist and Commentator.

 

MARTY MARTEL

8:25 AM ET

April 19, 2011

Pakistani duplicity is the real issue in U. S.-Pak relations

It is the Pakistani duplicity that Mr. Khattak mentions in passing, is the real issue between U. S. and Pakistan.

How long is U. S. willing to tolerate the duplicity practiced by Pakistani governments since 2001 when Musharraf was forced to join this U. S. fight against terrorism under the threat of dire consequences if he refused at the time?

How long can Pakistan continue to blackmail U.S. using the threat that if U. S. does not tolerate it (Pakistani duplicity) then alternative of nuclear weapons falling in the hands of terrorists is even worse when in fact Pakistan is sheltering and supporting those very terrorists anyway?

Pakistan obviously thinks and correctly atleast until now that US has NO choice but to tolerate such Pakistani duplicity even though such Pakistani duplicity precisely has prolonged this conflict and resulted endless causalties of US/NATO/Afghan forces and civilians.

U. S. military has nobody to blame but itself for the failure of its Afghan mission since it has tolerated such Pakistani duplicity endlessly.

 

TDYEN

6:22 AM ET

April 20, 2011

It is probably inevitable the ISI push their way into any talks

For any political strategy to work in the AfPak region the strategic interests of the Pakistani military need to be taken into account. Even if the ISI are pushing their way into the US - Taliban talks, for any long term resolution they will have to be included.

The only other long term solution is that the Pakistani military get destroyed or neutered somehow. Something that isn't going to happen short of nuclear war and not really worth contemplating.

If the Taliban feel they can't be honest with the ISI in the room then that is what they will have to push in public too.

But like the Israel-Palestine issue the beginning of wisdom is that their is not likely to be a negotiated settlement any time soon, until the political landscape changes somehow.

Maybe another Mumbai attack on India would start a new Indo-Pakistani war which Pakistan will lose and that may change things.
Or on a more positive note, Kashmir might get a negotiated settlement (I'm not holding my breath on that one)

A possible event I can think of is the US getting sick of funding Pakistan and pulling the financial plug, Pakistan goes bankrupt and collapses as a state, the Pakistani military takes over again and the swings and roundabouts of south Asian politics keeps on rolling along.

Looming all over this is the nuclear issue, if a nuke were to go off anywhere then the whole game changes and all bets are off.

 

TDYEN

6:52 AM ET

April 20, 2011

A fun excercise

Actually after that last post I thought what a fun exercise it might be to list all of the possible events that may occur to effect the political situation in the AfPak region.

So in no order of importance or likelihood here we go.

- Another Mumbai style attack that leads to a response from India.
- Pakistan going broke probably after US politics cuts funding.
- Another coupe in Pakistan bringing in General Kayani or another
- US pulling out of Afghanistan
- India moving in to Afghanistan after US pullout
- China moving in to sections of Afghanistan to protect mineral interests.

- Civil war in Afghanistan after a Us pullout. The Taliban would be sponsored by the ISI, maybe the other side is supported by a bizarre mishmash coalition of US, Iranian, Russian, Chinese and Indian interests.
- Taliban takeover all or part of Afghanistan Mk 2
- An even weirder outcome might be Pakistan formally annexing Afghanistan.

- India and Pakistan come to an agreement over Kashmir.
- India and Pakistan normalize relations

- Pakistan civil war worsens and
1) Pakistan becomes a failed state and/or.
2) The Pashtuns break off into a new country Pashtunistan and/or
3) The Balochi's break off into a new country Balochistan, backed by India and Afghanistan.

- Pakistans wildest dreams come true and India breaks up somehow. (gee I really doubt this one)

Gee not many good outcomes there, anybody got any other "plays" that might get started anytime soon.

 

TEJAS RAMAKRISHNAN

4:54 AM ET

April 23, 2011

Above all, the real issue is

Above all, the real issue is Pakistan's sponsoring of cross border terrorism. many news sites have reported this to the world, but people move away from reality...

Drone attacks might be improving pilot safety records, but the fact is that a guy behind a computer is more likely to fire missile at a house than a pilot in a plane even if both doubts whether the intel is true...

The statement of facts is not uniform throughout the news world too. I am not particularly true which of the news i hear are true and which are baseless.

Above that, the news is often modified a million times before we here. I read that 22 people were killed in the strike in some site - Leaky Wiki