Afghanistan has long been thought of as more a
natural wasteland than a natural resource treasure chest. But after a
preliminary study by the US Geological Survey in 2007, Afghan Mines Minister
Wahidullah Shahrani recently claimed
that Afghanistan
has $3 trillion worth of untapped mineral deposits. These untapped resources
will have more transformational impacts on Afghan society than a century of
military occupation and aid disbursements. The dynamics of industrial
development and international trade, if properly managed within a sound
administrative framework, will slowly but surely bring Afghanistan into the global economy through the
same transnational commercial flows that were once known as the Silk Road. However, beyond leaving market forces to
themselves, the establishment of an Afghan Mineral Fund that would collect and
direct extractive revenues could serve as a powerful catalyzing force with the
potential to reduce the strength and reach of the insurgency and put Afghanistan on
its own feet. Modeled on similar funds established in countries like Norway, the
Afghan Mineral Fund would be an independent agency run like a public-private
investment fund. It is clear that providing Afghans with a very direct stake in
this natural largesse offers the highest probability of long term stability,
with a population that is literally invested in their nation's institutional
fabric.
If International
Security Assistance Force commander General Petraeus is serious about President
Obama's withdrawal deadline-and wants an honorable exit after a decade of
unsuccessful hostilities in the country-he would be wise to leverage this
serendipitous array of mineral deposits as an opportunity to help Afghans build
a suite of institutions that could sustain development and stability over the
long term.
The United States
and its NATO allies are now faced with fundamental questions: What is the proper
institutional framework for governing the exploitation of these natural
resources and the distribution of tax revenue?
If an Afghan Mineral Fund is created, what is the national
administration infrastructure needed to deal with the very difficult geographic
footprint and extraction challenges that Afghan mineral reserves face? How can it contribute to the positive
identification of all citizens who will become direct recipients of mineral
revenue under such a Fund? And, what are the second order effects such a system
would have on Afghan social and political dynamics?
In recent years,
oil- and mineral-rich countries such as Kazakhstan
and Mongolia have begun to
successfully implement resource revenue funds drawing on inspiration from
countries such as Norway.
They have set aside substantial profits, invested in diversifying their
industries, and established national policies for everything from medical care
to micro-credit to mortgages. In short, they are winning the battle against the
"resource curse."
General Petraeus'
Afghanistan counter-insurgency
strategy is premised upon protecting the population and ensuring that the
Coalition bestows upon Afghanistan
a sufficiently viable economy and an administrative infrastructure capable of
effective law enforcement and essential government functions. These functions
must empower law abiding citizens and reduce the influence of nefarious actors.
The failure to establish such a strong administrative infrastructure will be
amplified as mineral rights are parceled out to industrial interests. Without strong
land administration and cadastral recordkeeping, which provides a public record
and map of land titles and ownership, the regulation and taxation of their exploitation
will be unmanageable, and likely undermine stability in Afghanistan.
In the haste to
respond to the attacks of 9/11, the United States
had no clear exit strategy for its military operations in Afghanistan. Now,
due to this twist of fate, Mother Earth and the geologists who study her have
dealt us the makings of such a way out. It
is time to adapt the resource fund mechanism to the Afghan mineral reserves,
along with the land parcel, infrastructure, and identity administration that it
would require. Anything short of
establishing such a strong and transparent architecture will have enormous,
deleterious downstream effects as mineral rights are parceled out to American,
Chinese, Indian, Iranian and other international industrial interests, ensuring
that it is a tinderbox of insecurity far into the future-and far longer than
America wishes to remain.
Dr. Christopher K. Tucker serves on private sector,
government and non-profit Boards including the Board of Directors of the United
States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation, and the Intelligence Task Force of
the Defense Science Board. Parag Khanna is
a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation and author of
the forthcoming How to Run the World:
Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance.
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