Thursday, December 16, 2010 - 12:03 PM

The White House review of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan provides a clear opportunity to identify which elements of the new approach have worked and which are falling short. In October 2010, the International Council on Security and Development (ICOS) conducted the latest in a series of surveys of Afghan public opinion. Building on two previous research phases in 2010, this assessment involved interviews with 1,000 Afghan men in the most disputed districts of Helmand and Kandahar. The results can be divided into three familiar categories: the good, the bad, and the ugly.
The
Good
Our field research shows that there is some progress
being made in Afghanistan.
In June 2010, only 34 percent of interviewees in Helmand's
Marjah district thought that NATO forces were winning the war. In October, this
figure has risen to 64 percent. In Helmand's
Nawa district, only 20 percent of interviewees in June 2010 thought recent
military operations in their area had been good for the Afghan people. This
figure rose to 51 percent in October 2010. This sharp rise in perceptions of
military success in districts which were the focus of the troop surge is
encouraging. A poll
recently commissioned by The Washington Post, ABC News, BBC, and ARDTV also found positive indications
in Helmand with the number of people describing their security
as "good" increasing from 14 percent in 2009 to 67 percent, and
2/3 now saying Afghanistan is on the right track.
Additionally, support for women's issues among the men interviewed in the conservative south was surprisingly high. Forty-Five percent of those interviewed support women voting in elections, while 44 percent of respondents in the south think women should have a greater role in government, and 45 percent believe that a greater role for women would improve the chances for peace in Afghanistan.
The Bad
Despite our many years in Afghanistan, the international community has
collectively failed to explain its presence in Afghanistan
and what international forces and non-government organizations -- as opposed to
the Taliban -- can offer the people of Afghanistan.
Of serious concern is a fundamental lack of understanding within the local population regarding why international forces are in their communities. Forty percent of interviewees believe, according to our research, that international forces are in Afghanistan to destroy Islam or to occupy or destroy the country.
Disturbingly, only 8 percent of interviewees in the south knew the story of the 9/11 attacks and as a result had no understanding of the justification for the conflict with the Taliban and al Qaeda.
Following on classic counter insurgency theory, the primary approach until now has been to concentrate efforts in building a credible and effective Afghan government. Although those attempts should be pursued with vigour, it must urgently be supplemented by a parallel "grass roots political surge" to dramatically improve the international community's own relationship with the Afghan people.
The mistrust with which the foreign forces are viewed shows that we have failed to communicate to ordinary Afghan civilians who we are and why we are in Afghanistan, a critical element in supporting the troop surge properly, and ensuring its maximum effect.
The
Ugly
The research findings indicate that both the
effectiveness and the loyalty of Afghan security forces -- a key element of the
current strategy -- need attention.
The perceived potential for Afghan forces to switch sides (after being trained by international forces) is at a dangerous level. Fifty-six percent of respondents believe Afghan police are helping the Taliban and 29 percent think that Afghan police end up joining the Taliban. Thirty-nine percent think that the Afghan National Army (ANA) are helping the Taliban; 30 percent of respondents think that ANA soldiers end up joining the Taliban.
According to interviews, the Taliban could easily rebuild their power in the country and 81 percent believed the return of the Taliban would mean a return of al Qaeda. Additionally, 72 percent believe that al Qaeda would then use Afghanistan to launch attacks on the West again.
Get in
the Game
The findings of the research clearly demonstrate
the "relationship gap" between the Afghan people and the international
community. To bridge this gap the surge must be accompanied by long-overdue
efforts to build ground-level political support for the foreign presence in Afghanistan.
The negative impact of military actions must be tempered by dramatic positive
impacts at the local level before, during and after the military operations. International
forces and organizations must show that they can have positive impacts on the
lives of ordinary Afghans who continue to face chronic problems such as food
shortages, poverty and unemployment. This would not only reformulate the
security landscape but would also demonstrate respect for the sacrifices that
Afghan people are making in the war against insurgents.
Finally, we must make it clear to the Afghan people that a future with the international community opens up channels for development, stability, peace and democracy. A future with the Taliban closes these channels, leading to poverty, repression and isolation. We have failed to communicate effectively the benefits to the Afghan people of a future aligned with the West, and to make them aware of what would be lost by a return of the Taliban. The problem is not that our narrative is not winning, but rather that our narrative is not in the game.
The White House hopes to begin troop withdrawals by next summer. But a sustainable transition will ultimately not be possible without a dramatic change in our own political relationship with the Afghan people. This reformulation will not be successful without finally and effectively addressing the chronic and disturbing lack of positive outcomes of the international presence on the lives of the average Afghan, in whose villages we are prosecuting our war.
Norine MacDonald is the president and founder of the International Council On Security and Development.
MAURICIO LIMA/AFP/Getty Images
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US military undermined its own Afghan mission
Kayani of Pakistan will assure the failure of Obama’s strategy just as Musharraf of Pakistan assured failure of Bush’s Afghan policy.
The failure of America’s Afghan policy was guaranteed the day Bush administration allowed Musharraf to relocate Taliban cadres from Kunduz in November, 2001 where they were trapped against advancing Northern Alliance forces. Musharraf relocated Haqqani’s HQN group to North Waziristan and Mullah Omar’s QST group to Quetta. Haqqani and Mullah Omar from their Pakistani hideouts have been controlling and conducting Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan ever since, killing US/NATO troops in the process while US pours billions in aid to Pakistan.
As Karzai told a news conference in Kabul on 7/29/2010 after WikiLeaks leaks, “The time has come for our international allies to know that the war against terrorism is not in Afghanistan’s homes and villages. But rather this war is in the sanctuaries, funding centers and training places of terrorism which are in Pakistan. Our international allies have the ability to destroy these Pakistani sanctuaries, but the question is why they are not doing it?“
Afghanistan’s national security advisor Rangin Dadfar Spanta asked the similar question in a Washington Post article on 8/23/10: “While we are losing dozens of men and women to terrorist attacks every day, the terrorists’ main mentor (Pakistan) continues to receive billions of dollars in aid and assistance. How is this fundamental contradiction justified? Despite facing a growing domestic terror threat, Pakistan “continues to provide sanctuary and support to the Quetta Shura, the Haqqani network, the Hekmatyar group and Al Qaeda. Dismantling the terrorist infrastructure “requires confronting the state of Pakistan that still sees terrorism as a strategic asset and foreign policy tool”.
Obama’s mistake was to pick Bush team of Gates, Mullen and Petraeus who have continued Bush policy of mollycoddling Pakistan.
For some diabolical reason, Gates, Mullen, Petraeus & Company has split the Taliban into the Afghan and Pakistani parts even though they are two peas of the same pod. The US military is going after the Pakistani Taliban, while it encourages the Pakistani intelligence to continue to shelter the entire top Afghan Taliban leadership in Baluchistan province. Mullah Muhammad Omar and other members of the Taliban's inner shura (council) have been ensconced for years in the Quetta area.
As General McChrystal reported in his assessment of August, 2009 to the President: ‘The Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) based in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan, is the No. 1 threat to US/NATO mission in Afghanistan. At the operational level, the Quetta Shura conducts a formal campaign review each winter, after which Mullah Mohammed Omar (Afghan Taliban Chief) announces his guidance and intent for the coming year‘.
However US drones have targeted militants in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), but not the Afghan Taliban leadership operating with impunity from Baluchistan. US ground-commando raids also have spared the Afghan Taliban's command-and-control network in Baluchistan.
Thus US military under Gates/Mullen/Petraeus and company has undermined its own Afghan mission by allowing Mullah Omar’s QST to control and command their Afghan insurgency from Pakistani havens.
the good
------ US is sponsoring a puppit, non representative and corrupt government in kabul, and Pakistan is in mess due to terrorism
the bad
----- US has not been able to invade Pakistan on Indian whims,
shrewed hindu? using US as proxy against Pak
the ugly
-------US is unable to keep Afghanistan occupied and pushtuns away from power. majority ethnic group " taliban" winning the war.
@ kuchbai... check some statistics on afghanistan
Pushhtuns comprise of 50 % in Afghanistan,
combining uzbek,tajik,hazara makes 40%.
Taliban represent pushtun, and pushtun do not accept karzai elections under US occupations. Thats why you saw the result of ghazni and other pushtun dominated provinces .
In Ghazni , a pushtun dominated province, not a single pushtun wins in election. That is reality of karzai elections.
yes, karzai is a pushtun but check it up how many other pushtuns are there in northern alliance.
(3)
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