Even as the recently released tell-all Obama's Wars by Bob Woodward raises
fresh doubts about the U.S.-Pakistan relationship and will likely stoke
mistrust in the United States about Pakistan as a partner against the Afghan
Taliban, a series of stories that paint the Pakistani army in a negative light
will undoubtedly contribute to the tensions. These events occur against the
backdrop of heightened U.S. drone activity inside Pakistan's border region and
at least two reported NATO helicopter attacks on Pakistani soil. How the
Pakistani army sees these events and addresses the ensuing challenges will have
enormous impacts on the future trajectory of South Asia, as well as the direction
of Pakistan's fragile democracy.
First, there was the reported kidnapping of The News journalist Umar Cheema and the
standard operating procedures of Pakistani intelligence agencies used to
humiliate and torture him, according to his detailed
account of the incident. Other than denials, there does not appear to be a
clear or detailed explanation from the government or the Inter Services
Intelligence directorate, Pakistan's top spy agency, of who did this, nor any
indication from the government that a rapid and credible public inquiry is
underway. In the absence of such actions, rumors will fly and allegations will
be made that will undermine the state and its agencies.
Second, there has been a new viral
video released on the Internet purporting to be a record
of extrajudicial killing of blindfolded Pashtun captives in civilian clothes by
Urdu-speaking (that is, non-Pashtun) soldiers in army uniforms and carrying
standard army weapons. The presence of a senior person identified in the
soundtrack as "Tanveer Sahib" may implicate an officer in this incident. According
to the New York Times, the Pakistani
military initially dismissed the video as a forgery. The
Times later reported that the army
had investigated the incident, found it to be genuine, and promised to act
against the perpetrators.
Fairly or not, this video and other
negative stories about the army's operations and its behind-the-scenes role in
Pakistani politics will likely be seen within Pakistan as coordinated and
hostile actions from outside Pakistan to put pressure on the Pakistan army to
bend to U.S. demands on a number of fronts. The army's readiness to move
against the elements involved in these killings speaks to its new and informed
leadership. Similar reports of extrajudicial killings in East Pakistan, now
Bangladesh, in 1971 were brushed aside by the army at that time. They lost the hearts
and minds of the local population, fuelled an insurgency, and created a refugee
stream into India that drew that country into invading East Pakistan to help
create Bangladesh. By contrast, in June 1992, an incident in Sindh province
earlier described by the army in Sindh as an "encounter" with local robbers was
openly investigated by the army high command, following a BBC report of
killings by an army major as a favor to a local landlord. The major was
court-martialed and sentenced to death. Senior officers who failed to
investigate the incident adequately and participated in covering it up were
removed or dismissed to much public acclaim. The army's stock went up in the
public eye.
The current army chief, Gen. Ashfaq
Parvez Kayani, will need to confront this latest allegation head-on and quickly
rather than let it simmer and adversely affect public support for the military as
well as morale inside the institution. If a "rogue officer" was at work giving
his troops an unlawful command to murder civilian prisoners, then the army
needs to clear it up in a manner that will identify and bring to court the
culprits and help educate the rest of its officers and troops against similar
actions. At a time when the civilian government is under stress and economic
and political problems have besieged it, it is important that the army is seen
as a stable entity working with the government for the common good.
General Kayani also faces a challenge on
the border from the U.S. and NATO. A first incursion into Pakistan seemed to
have been handled quickly by him and Adm. Mike Mullen to reduce unhappiness on
the Pakistan side. They spoke and decided not to add to the public rhetoric. But
now an additional incident in Kurram involving a NATO helicopter attack that
reportedly killed three soldiers of the Frontier Corps, the paramilitary force
that patrols the tribal areas, has led to the closing of the border to NATO
supplies for Afghanistan and a public rebuke from the government of Pakistan.
This situation could easily careen out
of control. The Obama administration, which is unhappy with what it perceives
as Pakistan's lack of action against anti-American militants, is seriously
miscalculating if it is using such tactics to pressure Pakistan to launch
operations against its will. Better to argue your case behind closed doors, as
allies should -- or risk a public split. Similarly, Pakistan risks
overestimating its leverage over the United States and NATO by shutting down the
coalition's supply routes across the Durand Line. If anything, this embargo
will accelerate the U.S. drive to diversify its logistics chain -- while taking
money out of Pakistanis' pockets.
There is some positive news. On Thursday,
Kayani announced a fresh list of newly promoted three-star generals, completing
his team of senior officers who will outlast his own new three-year term at the
helm of the army. By all accounts, he has chosen tried and tested professionals
and superseded some Musharraf loyalists. As with the lieutenant generals
promoted in April, he has by and large selected apolitical and professional
soldiers with a broad, mature view of the world and of Pakistan's place in it. Many
of them have topped their classes at the military academy, winning the Sword of
Honour, or have attended advanced military courses abroad, as has Kayani. Here's
hoping they get their chance to prove that Pakistani's military can be a force
for stability in South Asia, and a voice for the rule of law at home.
Shuja Nawaz is director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic
Council and author of Crossed Swords:
Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within
and Pakistan in the Danger Zone: A Tenuous U.S.-Pakistan Relationship.
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