This week's AfPak
Behind the Lines considers the current status of the Kashmir conflict and
its impact on Afghanistan
and Pakistan
with Dr. Sumit Ganguly.
1. 17 Kashmiris have been killed in conflict with Indian authorities
since early June, when police killed a 17 year old bystander at a protest. How
does this summer's violence compare with previous years, and how has the nature
of the conflict changed since the Muslim separatist movement began in the late
1980s?
This summer's violence is markedly
reminiscent of the violence at the beginning of the insurgency in 1989. At that
time there was a genuine outpouring of popular anger over Indian political
malfeasances in Kashmir. (These are explored at some length in my 1997
Cambridge book, The
Crisis in Kashmir: Portents of War, Hopes of Peace). Once again, young
Kashmir men who are tired of the seeming callousness of the Indian state toward
their plight have taken to the streets. They feel that much of the resources
that the national government has poured into the state has not made a
meaningful difference to their lives. They lack employment, infrastructure in
the state if inadequate and the heavy hand of paramilitary forces deployed in
the state adversely affect they everyday lives. They are subjected to petty
harassment, periodic questioning and are occasionally roughed up. Given this
milieu all that was needed was an unfortunate incident, namely the death of a
hapless high school student was hit by a stray tear gas canister. His death provided
the spark for the conflagration that ensued.
2. Analysts have assessed that
unrestricted cross border trade in Kashmir could reach $6 billion a year. What
might be the economic impact of more open trade routes there on India,
Pakistan, and Kashmir? How do economic conditions in Kashmir affect the
security situation there?
Actually, the question has
it backwards: economic conditions in the state would improve dramatically if
some semblance of security and political order obtained in the state. India has
started a bus service in Kashmir linking the two sides. However, from the
outset, Pakistan-based terrorists have attacked the bus terminal in Srinagar.
The economic conditions in Kashmir are
complex. There is little question that over the years the Indian central
(national) government has poured in very substantial amounts of economic
assistance in an effort to win the sympathies of the populace. However, corrupt
officials have siphoned off some of those funds and their administration has
not always been effective; therefore the target populations have not frequently
benefited from such public spending. The disturbed conditions within the state
have also inhibited private investors thereby adding to the state's problems of
unemployment and under-employment.
3. The majority of Kashmiris want independence from both Pakistan and India. What are the current
prospects for a political settlement of this conflict?
I do not subscribe to the view
that the majority of Kashmiris want independence from India and Pakistan. Based
on Robert Bradnock's survey
done in 2009 for Chatham House, in less than four districts of Jammu and Kashmir is
there outright support for independence. To my knowledge, this is the best
survey done yet in the region. More to the point, the independence option is
politically fatuous. What would happen to "nested minorities" such as the
Buddhists in Ladakh, the Shia in Kargil and the Hindus in Jammu? Would
even the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front, the notionally secular
pro-independence organization credibly guarantee their rights in an independent
Kashmir? Also, do we really wish to create another ward of the international
community? Can Kashmir without the massive subsidies that it annually receives
from India (and squanders thanks to a kleptocratic political class) survive on
its own? Would the People's Republic of China (PRC) really countenance an
independent Kashmir given the likely demonstration effects on restive (and oppressed)
minorities in Tibet and Sinkiang?
4. What influence does the Kashmir conflict
have on the war in Afghanistan? How does Kashmir impact Pakistani and Indian
interests there?
This is yet another popular and base
canard. It is the darling of the pro-Pakistan lobby in Washington, DC who are
either misinformed or mischievous. The Kashmir issue really needs to be
separated from the question of Afghanistan. The problem of Kashmir had plagued
Indo-Pakistani relations long before the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and its
subsequent troubles. That said, India
and Pakistan do have competing
interests in Afghanistan.
India wants to see an Afghanistan free from the clutches of the religiously and
socially obscurantist Taliban while Pakistan, and especially its security
establishment, wants to resurrect some variant of the Taliban to exert
influence on Afghanistan and to end an Indian presence there.
Dr.
Sumit Ganguly holds the Rabindranath
Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations and is a Professor of
Political Science at Indiana University in Bloomington.
(6)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE