Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 10:38 AM

The shooting yesterday of two American civilians by a suspected Afghan National Army instructor at a shooting range in northern Afghanistan has thrown into sharp relief one of the challenges of trying to quickly build effective Afghan security forces capable of securing the country. In part as a response to the slow growth in size and competence of the Afghan National Army and Police, the past year has seen a growing international effort to create security at the village level in Afghanistan by working directly with villagers. This effort has been through both formal programs such as the Afghan Public Protection Force (APPF) and less formal ones such as support reportedly given to members of the Shinwari tribe in the Achin district of Nangarhar. Perhaps the most ambitious and controversial of these efforts is the Local Defense Initiative (LDI), a program created and run by Special Forces. In early June I was in Afghanistan to conduct research on LDI, including lengthy conversations with several special operations commanders responsible for these operations. Most importantly, I was able to spend six days embedded with a joint special operations-local defense team in the Khakrez district of Kandahar.
The Local Defense Initiative, as originally envisioned by RAND political scientist Seth Jones and Army Lt. Col. Scott Mann, called for the use of special operations teams, principally but not exclusively U.S. Army Special Forces, to create volunteer village level defense forces to fight against insurgents and, as a sort of compensation for resisting insurgents, to bring development to the village. This was a return to the Vietnam era experience of Special Forces, where programs such as the Civilian Irregular Defense Group (CIDG) placed Special Forces teams in remote villages to perform an almost identical mission. As in Vietnam, this type of program is controversial; some in both the U.S. Embassy in Kabul and the Karzai government view it as potentially creating militias that will weaken the central state in the long run. The Afghan government has approved the plan, however, partially based on the condition that the local forces be administered by the Afghan Interior Ministry.
Once in place, a team is to apply a five step methodology, based on acquiring detailed knowledge of the area and its power relationships, securing and developing the area, expanding security across a larger area, and finally transitioning the responsibility for security to the Afghan government. The teams are generally composed of a twelve man U.S. Army Special Forces Operational Detachment Alpha (ODA) with attached enablers such as civil affairs and, ideally, an Afghan partner force. The detachment is thus equipped to defend itself, patrol its area of operations, collect intelligence, and provide development, the latter through civil affairs using Commander's Emergency Respond Fund (CERP)
The plans for expanding the programs are ambitious. According to one commander there were five teams at the end of March; by mid-June there were twelve, and his goal is to have twenty-three by September. In addition to political hurdles, this expansion will present substantial logistical challenges as focus areas tend to be rather inaccessible. Another issue is that of team rotation. This duty is austere and labor intensive yet requires continuity to ensure that relationships are maintained. While eminently sensible, ensuring continuity would require a substantial adjustment by Army Special Forces Command, which is responsible for providing SF ODAs worldwide.
An outpost of progress in Khakrez
Khakrez district, where I embedded in northern Kandahar, has largely had no conventional coalition force presence, and little Afghan security force presence, with a single company of Afghan National Army (ANA) troops partnered with a U.S. Special Forces ODA, fewer than 100 local police officers, and some Afghan Highway Patrol checkpoints. Unsurprisingly the district has been highly permissive for insurgent movement and activity, which has facilitated activity in the districts Khakrez borders (Ghorak, Maiwand, Shah Wali Kot, Panjwayi, and Arghandab) as well as into Kandahar City itself, which is only a few hours' drive away.
In February 2010 a team was introduced to Khakrez district. It was initially based at an unused clinic in one of the villages in a cultivated area known as "the Green Zone." The clinic was deemed too small and the team moved to an unused school, where they were based when I visited in June. The school is adjacent to one village, with others to the north and south. The embed site (as the small compound is known) is austere and vulnerable in comparison to most Coalition bases, lacking imposing barriers and blast walls. Yet this relative vulnerability makes the site approachable for the villagers, some of whom work fields immediately adjacent to the school.
The team's Afghan partner force, the first Afghan Special Forces ODA to be created in a new program, had arrived a few days before I did. The U.S. team was excited about their new partner force, which would need mentoring but would also greatly enhance the U.S. team's ability to interact with villagers. The Afghan team, which was accompanied by the sergeant major for the nascent Afghan Special Forces, was equally motivated.
Both teams were highly dedicated to the mission. The U.S. team captain had immersed himself in the Koran and understanding village life. He knew the villagers and their stories, including who had a son or cousin in the Taliban, and had such a rapport with the villagers that he was asked several times when he was going to convert to Islam and settle down with them. The civil affairs team had completed dozens of projects, most having to do with the provision of water through refurbishment of wells or karezes (underground irrigation canals). The team learned a great deal about the area in the process. The Afghan team, mostly non-Pashtuns who were not as familiar with the area due to their recent arrival, was quickly acclimating. During one patrol to the village north of the embed site, the Afghan sergeant major in particular quickly connected to the population, holding one of the village's babies while villagers put a garland around his neck- he subsequently gave the garland to a sick little girl in another village. In short, one could scarcely ask for a better combined team to execute the village stability mission.
Yet despite the combined team's dedication and proficiency, the Green Zone area had not generated a community watch and, while the team's patrolling had certainly made the area less hospitable, insurgents could still move across the area. Indeed, the first night I was at the embed site it was attacked by insurgents firing from the village to the south. The villagers were subsequently unable and/or unwilling to provide much information about the attack. The team was got some intelligence from elsewhere in the Green Zone, but it was still limited.
What explains this relative lack of success despite having a team executing the Village Stability Program mission in textbook fashion? The answer reveals the limits of U.S. ability in counterinsurgency environments. Put simply, the conditions in Khakrez were not propitious for this type of program. For one, much of the wealthier population who actually owned the land around the Green Zone had fled to Kandahar City. Those left behind were mostly share-croppers who were not by tradition and inclination community leaders. The area was tribally fragmented, with both Popalzai and Alikozai populations. The Popalzai (the tribe of Hamid and Ahmed Wali Karzai) dominate the district government (the police chief and district sub-governor are from the same Popalzai family) and are perhaps not as solicitous of the Alikozai as might be hoped, producing resentment the insurgents could exploit. Moreover, this called into question to some degree the development portion of the program's model- if the district government was part of the problem, would connecting the Green Zone to that government actually be positive? The bottom line is that while the population liked the team and its activities, there was not a critical mass of villagers willing, as of mid-June, to stand up to the insurgency and form a community watch.
This was made clear at a shura a few days after the attack on the embed site. One of the villagers, a former Taliban sub-commander, argued that the villagers should meet with the insurgents and work out a solution whereby the embed site and Green Zone would not be attacked. If that failed he proclaimed himself ready to take up arms against them. His statement was publicly echoed by other villagers at the shura, yet he candidly acknowledged to the team after the shura that few in the area besides him would really do so. There was relatively little else the team could do to try to incentivize the Green Zone population, and the team could not change the composition of the district government.
Of course, the program works out differently in different geographical and cultural environments. The team I was embedded with was originally slated to go to Achin district in Nangarhar to work with the Shinwari tribe. Whatever the Shinwari's faults, unwillingness to fight is not one of them -- indeed they are quite willing to fight ISAF, the Taliban, and sometimes each other. Had the team gone to Achin, they likely would have dozens of men in the community watch within a short period of time, even if they would then have had the headache of managing intra-Shinwari rivalries. The open question is whether most Afghan districts are more like Khakrez or Achin. I hope the latter, but fear the former.
Austin Long is an assistant professor at the School of International and Public Affairs and a member of the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia University.
MANPREET ROMANA/AFP/Getty Images
US Afghan mission headed for failure
US mission in Afghanistan is doomed to fail no matter how much money, manpower and effort US pours in there as long as Obama continues Bush policy of mollycoddling Pakistan.
All American officers in southern Afghanistan know that they can not prevail in the ongoing military operations, unless Taliban strongholds across the Durand Line in North Waziristan and Baluchistan are neutralized. Adm Mullen and Gen Patraeus evidently do not want to acknowledge that hard options have to be considered if their soldiers are not to die at the hands of radicals, armed and trained across the Durand Line. This is where rubber meets the road for the famed General.
As Times of London dated 6/13/2010 reported on Matt Waldman’s report titled ‘The sun in the sky’ from London School of Economics, “support for the Afghan Taliban is ‘official Pakistani ISI policy’ and is backed at the highest levels of Pakistan’s civilian administration. Pakistan appears to be playing a double game of astonishing magnitude. There is thus a strong case that the ISI orchestrates, sustains and shapes the overall insurgent campaign in Afghanistan.”
The ISI is said to compensate families of suicide bombers to the tune of 200,000 Pakistani rupees, claims the report. Thus US aid to bankrupt Pakistan finances the death of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan. So in a way, US is financing the death of its troops in Afghanistan.
Pakistani government issued its usual denials just as it had denied umpteen times the existence of Mullah Mohammed Omar’s ‘Quetta Shura Taliban (QST)’ in the provincial capital Quetta of Baluchistan. But General Stanley McChrystal called QST as the biggest threat to US Afghan mission in his report to President Obama in August, 2009.
The most breath-taking part of this sordid saga is that US is NOT holding Pakistan responsible for sheltering, protecting and supporting Haqqani’s HQN network and Mullah Omar’s QST network all these years while those networks have been causing daily deaths of US/NATO soldiers ever since 2002 even though Pakistan was SUPPOSED to have joined US fight against same Taliban back in 2001!
Can American CIA not know what Matt Waldman knows? How come Obama administration is continuing Bush’s mollycoddling of Pakistan with such incriminating evidence against Pakistan’s double game? How can US mission in Afghanistan succeed if Obama administration continues to ignore such Pakistani duplicity like Bush had done it before Obama?
Nothing an Occupier does is right by the Occupied
Thus everything America is doing, in Afghanistan, is wrong, immoral and an utter waste of money.
Plus don't forget that the Afghans laugh at American machinations to divide and conquer the country.
Blood is thicker than water and no amount of American threats, cajoling, and bribes will surpass the tribal loyalties of the Afghans. But, Americans, who themselves are a just a hotchpotch mulatto nation, are simply incapable of understanding the true and deep meaning of blood relatives in the tribal framework.
http://lalqila.wordpress.com/
So let Pakistan rule Afghanistan?
Khan,
Lets say USA exits Afghanistan tomorrow. Then what? Afghanistan will become Zannat (Heaven)? Wrong! With Pakistan being eager to control Afghanistan, it will rather be a "Taliban 2" rule! With sub-human standards of living and no freedom!
As for America being a Mulatto nation, scientifically it is better to have human species cross breed as it reduces genetic defects probability. However, don't try to argue as this is "science", something you "can't get it"!
In any case, what have you achieved by your "Pure" blood in Arabia or Pakistan? Name one scientific discovery in last 50 years! Don't start your rant of american colonisation etc. as defence as just a look at Singapore will explain you the difference.
That being said, should Afghans be left to their own devices? Risking, if not guaranteeing complete state failure and a complete resurrection of Taliban leadership-- and thus oppression the Afghani people. Not to mention a re-established safe zone for terrorists. kedeshi taso yo azadee afghanistan warlay, bay american marsta. kho lapara yo azadee afghanistan, america bayeed hatma lomray afghanistan jorovee. chay shu day haga day. For a free Afghanistan you must accept that.
Road to Kabul is Via Rawalpindi
MARTY MARTEL is absolutely right.
Road to Kabul is via Rawalpindi, to be precise, via Pakistan Army GHQ.
Hats off to Pakistan for pulling the best ever double game of this century that is going on for 10 years! Getting $13 Billion from USA without handing over a single Al-Queda or Quetta shura biggie (unless you count Mulla Badar who crossed ISI to negotiate directly with Karzai/USA).
Robert Blackwill's recent suggestion of dividing Afghanistan and leaving troubled south in care of Taliban is a wise one.
See here the article by Mr Blackwill: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39432.html
Let ISI stew in its own soup then.
If the Hindoo intention is to make Pakistan boil in its stew
If the Hindoo intention is to make Pakistan boil in its stew, and we all know that has been the Hindoo intention for the past 60+ years, then India will also boil in its stew.
We know where your family jewels are and we know how to make you scream uncle.
If you have conveniently forgotten, let me remind you that it was the Afghans & Pakistanis who ruled India for a 1000 years and we can do it again.
lalqila.wordpress.com
Any thread on AfPak or the ME is always so ridiculous. You people never propose realistic, effective solutions.
Yes, the United States could punish Pakistan...hard. But unless we pull off some miraculous regime change, which is virtually impossible, Pakistan would simply make things more difficult in Afghanistan. There are few options other than trying to elicit Pakistan's cooperation, and demonstrating to them that we intend to stay. If we appear not to be committed, they only have a further incentive to double deal. Now we might fail. But we have to see it through a little longer. At least wait until the surge is complete.
Marvel, Pakistanis were not born yesterday
Marvel, Pakistanis were not born yesterday, they fully understand America's real intentions and its strength and weaknesses.
The only contribution that America can make is to fund massive education campaigns in Afghanistan and NWFP of Pakistan. This may imply creative solutions like free wifi access to children from 5 to 25, iphone in every student's hand with web apps for classes from KG to BA/BSc.
The good thing about iphones is that there is no school to blow up. Young boys or girls can get together in groups of fives in their homes and go through the coursework.
If the Afghans and the people of NWFP do not want to come to the 21st century then we have to take the 21st century to them.
The very presence of Americans in any Muslim country is now counter-productive. Bush/Neocon/Jew wars have totally blackened the face of Americans. Its best to leave as soon as possible or get ready for an even severe backlash.
Perhaps Afghan soldiers shooting Americans or Zazi's in America are the leading edge of this fierce backlash. Learn something from these early warnings and get out.
American army and American mercenaries are NOT welcome in any Muslim country.
lalqila.wordpress.com
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