Thursday, July 1, 2010 - 8:40 AM

Offensive
moves
Afghan and international forces reportedly captured
the Taliban district commander for Naw Zad in Afghanistan's southern
Helmand province last night, after a four hour gunfight in the northern
part of the province (AP, ISAF). Some 30 Taliban
fighters were also reportedly killed (AFP).
U.S. Marines have reportedly launched
Operation Cobra in Helmand's Marjah, site of a coalition offensive
earlier this year whose slow progress has worried many observers, to
"drive insurgents sheltering in rural areas to the east and west of
Marjah into even more sparsely inhabited areas" (FT). In Sangin, another area of
Helmand, the Taliban are reportedly using children as young as five to
plant roadside bombs; of the 44 IEDs in Sangin in the last few months, a
fifth were carried out by kids, according to the Telegraph (Tel).
The Journal has today's
must-read describing how new legislation in Afghanistan would put local
village defense forces, which initially caused concern that the
anti-Taliban militias could spin out of control, under the supervision
of local police chiefs and ultimately, the Ministry of Interior in
Kabul, which would issue weapons and wages (WSJ). Afghan President Hamid Karzai is
expected to enact the legislation in the next few weeks.
Officially yours
Britain's
defense secretary, Liam Fox, warned yesterday against a "premature"
British withdrawal from Afghanistan, a few days after prime minister
David Cameron said he wanted to bring British forces home by 2015 (Times, Guardian, McClatchy). Speaking at a conservative think tank
in Washington, Fox said an early withdrawal would be "a shot in the arm
to jihadists everywhere;" Downing Street insisted it had approved his
speech beforehand and denied any policy disagreements between the
defense secretary and the prime minister.
The NYT considers the
futures of the top U.S. civilian officials in Afghanistan, Amb. Richard
Holbrooke and Amb. Karl Eikenberry, and their relationships with
incoming Afghanistan commander Gen. David Petraeus, who was confirmed
99-0 yesterday by the Senate and is en route to Kabul now (NYT, AJE, AFP, Reuters, Pajhwok). At a stop at NATO headquarters in Brussels
earlier today, Gen. Petraeus said that while he has no plans to changes
current rules of engagement in Afghanistan, which limit the use of
force to prevent civilian casualties, he would look into the application
of the rules and protect the Afghan population (BBC).
As U.S. attorney general Eric Holder
met yesterday with Afghan President Hamid Karzai and other top Afghan
officials to discuss anti-corruption and narcotics investigations,
Karzai and his finance minister Omar Zakhilwal pushed back against
allegations of government corruption, saying the international community
is responsible for some of the pervasive graft in the country (Wash Post, AP).
Measuring
up
Michael Leiter, the head of the National
Counterterrorism Center, estimated yesterday that there are "more than
300" al-Qaeda leaders and fighters in Pakistan, a rare public assessment
that, when taken with last week's assertion by CIA director Leon
Panetta that there are "50 to 100" al-Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan,
suggests fewer than 500 total in the border region (NYT). Leiter told an audience in Colorado that while
al-Qaeda is "weaker today than it has been at any time since
2001...weaker does not mean harmless."
The Post's big story today
is that Afghanistan has agreed to send between "a handful and a few
dozen" military officers to Pakistan to receive training, a move which
has "enormous symbolic importance" as the first visible result of talks
between the Afghan government and the Pakistani military and
intelligence (Wash Post). More than 300 Afghan soldiers are
currently already being trained in other countries, including Turkey and
India.
A Taliban spokesman has reiterated the movement's
unwillingness to enter into talks with "anyone -- not to Karzai, nor to
any foreigners" unless international forces withdraw from Afghanistan (BBC).
Checkmate?
Pakistan's
military has declared the northwestern tribal agency of South
Waziristan, site of a major anti-Taliban offensive last fall, cleared of
militant hideouts, and stated that infrastructure development and
refugee resettlement is underway (ET, Dawn). Pakistan has proposed a law
that, if approved by the National Assembly, would ban live media
coverage of militant attacks as well as "anything defamatory against the
organs of the state" (Reuters). Offenders could be fined up
to 10 million rupees or sentenced to three years in jail.
The AP
profiles the emergence of a new militant group in Pakistan called the
Ghazi Force, made up of relatives of those killed in 2007's Red Mosque
incident and reportedly responsible for several attacks previously
attributed to the Taliban (AP). The leader of the group, which is
reportedly headquartered in Orakzai agency, is believed to be Maulana
Niaz Raheem, and there are close ties between the Ghazi Force and the
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan.
Journalism
job opportunity
Al-Qaeda has launched its first online
English-language magazine this week, called "Inspire," run by the
group's Yemen affiliate (AP, CNN, Fox, Atlantic). Yesterday's debut did not go smoothly,
however; only the first three of the publication's 67 pages were
viewable, while the rest appeared as computer gibberish, according to
SITE Intelligence Group, a jihadist website monitoring service.
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Petraeus ready to hand over Afghanistan to Taliban
All this minor victories aside, the big picture is that General Petraeus will drive Obama’s Afghan policy from now on.
And being the buddy of Pakistani General Kayani, General Petraeus is blessing the US policy of reconciliation between Karzai and Taliban engineered by Pakistan. So Pakistani government is going to install a coalition government of Karzai and Taliban with US approving the deal so that US can declare victory and get the hell out of Afghanistan. Never mind that same Taliban has been responsible for the death of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan until now and that the Pakistan created this Taliban menace as confirmed by UN report on Bhutto killing released on 4/15/10 that "The PAKISTANI MILITARY ORGANIZED AND SUPPORTED THE TALIBAN TO TAKE CONTROL OF AFGHANISTAN IN 1996“.
Obama will have his victory a la Vietnam style just like Nixon/Kissinger and Taliban government will return to power, also just like a la Vietnam style within two-three years. All the sacrifices of US military will be in vain and US government would have thrown away billions of dollars for nothing, just like Russians before. By that time Obama, Hillary and Petraeus will be gone from the scene.
Only question left will be ’will US continue to have to feed billions of dollars to Pakistan as ransom money after Taliban takeover of Afghanistan’ so that Pakistan can protect US from future terrorist attacks? And if US does not, then will Pakistan return to same old terrorism, citing US walk-away from the region just like back in 1996?
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