Once again, Pakistan looms as a country deemed
to be "critical" in Foreign Policy's annual Failed
State Index. But Pakistan
is not a failed state, even though some of its institutions have declined in
capacity, while others never worked well from the start. This year, Pakistan ranks tenth, below several African
countries, Afghanistan, and Iraq, and above Haiti, which has recently been
devastated by an earthquake.
Few would disagree that Pakistan has numerous problems. According to the UNDP,
Pakistan
ranks 141 among 182 states included in its Human Development Index. The Human
Poverty Index ranks Pakistan
101 of 135. And the country has an abysmal track record at building the
capacity of women, ranked at 152 of 155 countries assessed.
Democracy has returned, after numerous bouts of
military interventions and democratus
interruptus. But, Pakistan's
political and civilian institutions lack capacity and competence. While the
military takes the blame for this, civilian institutions always legitimize the
coups. The Pakistani Supreme Court validates the coup and the dictators' orders
and even take an oath to support him. Those jurists who uphold their commitment
to the Constitution are booted out and replaced with compliant judicial
lackeys. The military leader invariably assembles a "King's Party," by co-opting
the most self-serving politicians who put personal power over principle.
Finally, they are elected in flawed contests which produces a weak parliament
which rubberstamps the diktats of the military leader.
Following a showdown between the Supreme Court
and then President and General Pervez Musharraf over the dubious privatization
of state assets at below-market prices to favored individuals and the court's
insistence that the government produce "missing persons" captured or detained
in the war on terror, the Supreme Court is no longer supine and has become an
activist institution. Citizens are nonplussed. They want a competent court that
understands its place within the balance of power.
Moreover, after decades of supporting Islamist
militants in Afghanistan and
India, Pakistan now faces a serious
domestic threat from some elements of their erstwhile proxies. In past years, Pakistan had a mixed
track record in confronting the Pakistan Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan),
which the public overwhelmingly opposed until April 2009.
So, Pakistan faces severe challenges.
But Pakistan
has also made important strides which are not captured by this index.
First, Pakistan has taken the challenge of
defeating the Pakistani Taliban seriously. The excesses of the militants in
Swat, their refusal to honor a controversial peace deal, a video revealing
their beating a young woman and their subsequent public rejections of the Constitution and democracy hardened public opinion toward them. The public's resistance
to military operations decreased, and support for the various peace deals
declined. Pakistan's Army and Frontier Corps are taking up the fight and appear to have their
citizenry with them.
Unfortunately, the media tends to conflate all
militants under the unhelpful
rubric of "the Taliban": the "Afghan Taliban," "Pakistani Taliban," or the
misnamed "Punjabi
Taliban." Given the propensity to call these and other groups "extremists"
or "insurgents," media reports deride the efforts of the Pakistan Army to defeat the TTP.
This is unfair. The Pakistan Army and the Frontier
Corps face a formidable foe. The Frontier Corps lacks basic equipment and
training, including battlefield first aid. If they are injured, they often
bleed out before they can get to a medical facility. Their lack of battlefield
medical evacuation, smart artillery, and close air support makes their battle
against the militants all the more sobering. Previous reports about Frontier
Corps defection and even collaboration with the Afghan Taliban appear to be
increasingly less relevant.
Second, though it has a long way to go, Pakistan
has made enormous investments in its internal security apparatus. The Pakistani
Army now understands the need for competent police forces as well as an
increasingly competent Frontier Corps as key elements in the "holding" phase
after clearing militants of an area. The Army knows it can't sit in places like
Swat indefinitely.
Third, Pakistan continues to make strides
with decreasing fertility and expanding educational opportunities. Although
state-run institutions such as the public schools are a disaster, affordable private
schools are spreading throughout Pakistan.
Fourth, Pakistan continues to build its
infrastructure. Pakistan
is increasingly connected with improved roads. That said, Pakistan does face enormous
electricity shortages due to Musharraf's failure to make a single investment in
this sector during his 10-year tenure.
Fifth, while the specter of A.Q. Khan's nuclear
black market -- and his ties to the state -- haunt Pakistan,
and while Pakistan has long
conducted asymmetric warfare under its nuclear umbrella, Pakistan has made significant
strides in securing its nuclear arsenal through the establishment of the
National Command Authority and the Strategic Plans Directorate. It should be
remembered that the U.S. Air Force "lost" several nuclear warheads for some 36
hours in August 2007. (The air chief was among some 70
people who were punished.) If the United
States can have such a lapse after decades of investing
in nuclear-security protocols, Pakistan's
relatively nascent institutions may not be foolproof.
Finally, throughout the 1990s, no democratically
elected government served out its term, with the opposition colluding the
military to prorogue the parliament and call fresh elections. In fact, the
first parliament to serve out its complete term was that elected in the
problematic 2002 elections. The election of 2008, despite a difficult start
with voter registration and manipulation of electoral rules, was reasonably
fair and peaceful, despite Taliban threats to disrupt the process. That
election saw the peaceful and democratic transfer of power which brought
President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani into office.
Despite the problems with President Zardari, who
is widely viewed as corrupt, an important shift has taken place politically. Perhaps
under Army pressure, Zardari began relinquishing the sweeping presidential
powers he inherited from Musharraf. In April 2010, Zardari signed the 18th
Amendment which returned Pakistan
to a parliamentary democracy more in line with its 1973 Constitution, which
remains the lodestone of democratic legitimacy in Pakistan. This is the first time in
recent history when a president "willingly" ceded power to a prime minister.
In short, the Failed States Index is clearly
only one side of the die. While sitting at a computer crunching numbers, even
with expert input as the index apparently uses, the larger story is missed. Pakistan has
its problems and enormous challenges lay ahead, but it is far from a failed or
even failing state.
C.
Christine Fair is an assistant professor at Georgetown
University and a visiting scholar at
the Lahore University of Management Science.
(14)
HIDE COMMENTS LOGIN OR REGISTER REPORT ABUSE