
The AfPak Channel is pleased to announce a new weekly feature, AfPak Behind the Lines, where we interview an expert on a hot topic in Afghanistan and Pakistan circles. Today, we speak with Thomas Ruttig about the prospects for reconciling and reintegrating militants of all levels with the Afghan government, as the U.S.'s new strategy for reintegrating Taliban fighters into Afghan society continues.
1. Amrullah Saleh, the former head of Afghanistan's intelligence services who was either fired or let go earlier this month, has warned that Karzai's reconciliation plan is dangerous and that the Taliban appear not to be showing any willingness to compromise. In brief, what are the specifics of Karzai's plan? What aspects of it could be seen as "dangerous," and how does that affect the role the West can play in reconciliation efforts? What are the major sticking points between Karzai's plan and what the U.S. would like to see happen?
President Karzai's reconciliation plan has not been spelled
out in detail yet. A draft of what had been called "Afghanistan Peace and
Reintegration Program" had been presented to the donor countries at the London conference in
January this year -- but not to the peace jirga delegates -- and got the green
light. Interestingly, the word "reconciliation" -- which is a code for "talks
with the Taliban" -- already had been dropped there. This indirectly reflects
that there is incongruence between Karzai and the U.S. government about how to deal
with the Taliban. Karzai probably wants to talk to the Taliban leadership,
directly and rather soon -- at least, this is what some of his Afghan critics
believe. They fear that major achievements of the post-Taliban period, mainly
rights and freedoms, might be thrown overboard if a hasty deal is made between
the two sides. The Karzai government already has shown that it is more
sensitive about what conservative sectors in the clergy -- the so-called jihadi
leaders -- demand than what civil society is concerned about - remember the
"Shia Personnel Law." The U.S.,
as far as I can see it, prefers to weaken the Taliban militarily first, so that
they won't negotiate from a position of strength. Operation Moshtarak in Marjah,
however, did not really prove that this works.
Saleh's resignation might have to do with all this.
Politically, he belongs to the current which emerged from the former mujahedin
Northern Alliance (NA). This current -- represented by Karzai's 2009 main rival
at the elections, Dr. Abdullah -- sees Karzai's reconciliation approach with
skepticism. It technically boycotted the peace jirga. (It did not use that
word, though.) On one hand, this skepticism reflects concerns broader political
and social circles share, like the organized women. On the other hand, the NA
had not been known for a tendency toward power sharing and fears losing further
influence if the Taliban joined a future government. Finally, if Thursday's Guardian
is right, Saleh also saw Karzai moving closer to Pakistan. The relations between the
NA and Pakistan
have "traditionally" been strained.
2. There has been a lot of discussion
about how and whether to negotiate with militant leadership at the top, and how
to reconcile Taliban footsoldiers at the bottom. What, if any, efforts are
being made to reach out to which mid-level commanders, and how is the Afghan
government approaching different factions of insurgents across the country?
I find the differentiation into "reintegration" (of low and
mid-level Taliban) and "reconciliation" (talk to leaders who break their ties
with al-Qaida) is artificial and not up to the realities. The Taliban have
proven much more cohesive and more able to convey a political message than most
other movements in Afghanistan's
last 30 years. That will make major breakaways very difficult. (And there never
has been one.) A number of fighters might have joined for the money that is in
it. But this is neither their only nor generally the major motive of the Taliban.
They reject the current corrupt and inefficient government and fight what they
see as a foreign occupation. This is shared by many Afghans, even those who do
not sympathize with the Taliban. (Many of them are not so much against the
presence of foreign troops and advisors but against how they dominate
decision-making.) We should not believe our anti-terrorism psy-ops and
understand that the Taliban are a political
movement with political aims. Such a movement will compromise when serious
talks are held. Some Taliban know that they cannot rule Afghanistan on
their own. We heard this discussion amongst Taliban in 2008 and 2009, but the surge
closed their ranks again.
3. In other conflicts, former insurgents
have been integrated into "legitimate" security services after peace
negotiations. Is there any discussion now of integrating Taliban fighters into Afghanistan's
police or army, and if so, do you think this kind of integration is feasible or
desirable? What would need to happen in terms of reconciliation before a
potential integration of Taliban into the armed services could take place?
Generally, it is good to integrate former insurgent fighters into the armed forced of the particular state. Afghanistan's institutions, however, are weak. The Afghan National Police is full of former militia structures. This has never been understood (or had been neglected) by those in the West who designed police reform. But it was obvious: if a local police chief was sent to another duty station, he very often took "his" cars, "his" computers and "his" fighters with him. Those fighters are not loyal to Afghanistan, but to their commander whom they now since the anti-Soviet "jihad." If you integrate the Taliban -- another militia -- into such a police, more harm is added. Required are real reforms. But the international community has lost precious years and now also much of its influence on the Afghan leadership. There is a big question mark whether this still can be turned around. The minimum requirement is that we give a commitment to the Afghans that we stay -- and also pay -- for radical institutional reform but also change our attitudes. Many Afghans would support reforms, but not necessarily those in government.
Thomas Ruttig is the co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network. He speaks Pashto and Dari.
MASSOUD HOSSAINI/AFP/Getty Images
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US aid funds the deaths of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan
As long as US continues to ignore Taliban’s Pakistani connections, problems faced by US in its Afghan mission will continue to not only persist but compound.
As Sunday’s Times of London reported yesterday on Matt Waldman’s report from London School of Economics, “Support for the Afghan Taliban is ‘official ISI policy’ and is backed at the highest levels of Pakistan’s civilian administration. Pakistan appears to be playing a double game of astonishing magnitude. There is thus a strong case that the ISI orchestrates, sustains and shapes the overall insurgent campaign in Afghanistan.”
The ISI is said to compensate families of suicide bombers to the tune of 200,000 Pakistani rupees, claims the report. Thus US aid to Pakistan goes directly to finance the death of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan.
Can American CIA not know what Matt Waldman knows? How come Obama administration is continuing Bush’s mollycoddling of Pakistan with such incriminating evidence against Pakistan’s double game? How can US mission in Afghanistan succeed if Obama administration continues to ignore such damning evidence against Pakistan?
As Sunday’s Times of London reported yesterday on Matt Waldman’s report from London School of Economics, “Support for the Afghan Taliban is ‘official ISI policy’ and is backed at the highest levels of Pakistan’s civilian administration. Pakistan appears to be playing a double game of astonishing magnitude. There is thus a strong case that the ISI orchestrates, sustains and shapes the overall insurgent campaign in Afghanistan.”
The ISI is said to compensate families of suicide bombers to the tune of 200,000 Pakistani replica IWC rupees, claims the report. Thus US aid to Pakistan goes directly to finance the death of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan.
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