Monday, May 24, 2010 - 8:54 AM

Going for broke
In the third
major strike against a NATO target in less than a week, late Saturday
night Taliban insurgents fired rockets and launched a ground attack
against Kandahar air field in southern Afghanistan, the first such
coordinated attempt, suggesting a resilient movement determined to carry
on high-profile assaults in spite of limited chances of success (WSJ, AJE, Tel, Reuters, Independent, FT, Wash Post, WSJ, Times). One of the rockets reportedly
hit a main shopping area in the air field known as the 'boardwalk' and
several coalition troops and civilian personnel were injured.
Earlier
on Saturday, U.S. soldiers and Afghan police staged a series of raids
in the western part of Kandahar city with the goal of dislodging
insurgents in a preview of the summer campaign (LAT). The
much-publicized coalition offensive in Kandahar is reportedly scheduled
for next month and will involve up to 10,000 soldiers (Australian).
Karen DeYoung writes, "Although operations initiated last winter in
southwestern Helmand
province will continue, and new troop deployments are scheduled this
year for northern and eastern Afghanistan, little else will matter if
the news from Kandahar is not good" (Wash Post). "There is no Plan B" if
the Kandahar operations are not successful.
John Burns has a
think piece looking at Kandahar over the years, accompanied by a brief
primer for the province (NYT, NYT). The price of opium in
Afghanistan is up from $79 per kilogram a year ago to $94 per kilo this
spring, as crop yields affected by blight and bad weather are down as
much as 75 percent (NYT). For
more on how the Taliban is financed, click here (NAF).
Third date's the charm?
Afghanistan's
heralded peace jirga has been postponed a second time, after initially
being scheduled first for late April or early May, then again for May 29
(AFP, WSJ, AP). The 1,200 community
representatives from across the country and some 200 international
guests will now arrive on May 29 and 30, and the jirga itself --
expected to roll out Afghan government incentives for insurgents to lay
down their arms -- will occur on June 2.
On Saturday, insurgents
on motorcycles surrounded and killed a pro-government tribal elder who
was planning to attend the jirga in the northern Afghan province of
Faryab (AP). The Post considers the Taliban's
campaign of targeted assassinations, writing that in the first four
months of 2010, 27 Afghan government officials or Afghans working with
international contractors in Kandahar city were killed, compared with 15
in the same period in 2009 and six in 2008 (Wash Post).
The Taliban and the
Afghan government have denied involvement in reported peace talks, as
several members of the Afghan parliament and representatives from
Hezb-i-Islami, Jamaat Islami, and Jumbesh Islami ended the Maldives
meeting with a closing statement promising more talks (NYT, AP, AJE).
Washington is continuing
its own efforts to persuade Taliban fighters to work with the Afghan
government by relying on pledges from local elders that the insurgents
will not return to the battlefield (NYT). As a point of clarification, the
U.S. and Afghan governments use "reconciliation" for Taliban leadership
and "reintegration" for militant footsoldiers. Bonus must-read: Steve Coll on the peace process in Afghanistan
(New Yorker-subscription).
The
war across the pond
Last night, Britain's top bomb
disposal officer, Col. Bob Seddon, resigned amid his concerns that
previous cuts have left his staff "overstretched and undermanned" in
Afghanistan (Tel, Guardian, BBC, Independent, Dawn/Reuters). Col. Seddon will leave
his post in January 2011; roadside bombs are the top killer of
troops in Afghanistan.
Britain's new Defense Secretary Liam Fox
is under fire from Afghans for describing Afghanistan as a "broken 13th
century country" in an interview with the London Times (Times, Times). Fox, Foreign Secretary William
Hague, and International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell visited
British troops in Helmand province over the weekend, where Fox was
pressed on a Tory pledge to double troops' operational allowance in
Afghanistan (Tel).
The drones go on
Between four
and ten people were killed late Friday night in a suspected U.S. drone strike west of Miram Shah, the
main town in Pakistan's northwest tribal region of North Waziristan (CNN, Geo,
AP, CNN, AFP, Reuters). Pakistani airstrikes over the weekend
killed as many as 103 alleged Taliban fighters, including five local
commanders, in the deadliest day yet in ongoing military operations in
Orakzai (ET, Geo,
Daily Times).
The Election
Commission of Pakistan announced earlier today that it will launch
sweeping reforms "designed to promote democracy and stability" that will
change the way the head of the electoral body is appointed, and ensure
comprehensive voter registration and electoral rolls (Reuters).
On
the menu: terror?
Pakistani authorities have arrested at
least six men on suspicion of alleged ties to Faisal Shahzad, the failed
Times Square car bomber, and the U.S. Embassy warned that terrorist
groups may have "established links" to Hanif Rajput Catering Service, an
upscale catering firm in Pakistan (AP, AJE, Reuters, NYDN). Two of the six detained have
reportedly proudly admitted helping Shahzad, one of whom angrily accused
his interrogators of "siding with the infidels" (AP); relatives of three of the men
deny their involvement with the plot, including the father of the
U.S.-educated co-owner of the catering service, Salman Ashraf Khan, who
was allegedly friends with Shahzad (AP, Reuters, Wash Post).
Pakistani law
enforcement sources say the Pakistani major arrested in connection with
the Times Square case had cell phone contact with Shahzad the day of the
bombing attempt, including a call as he was allegedly parking his
would-be car bomb (LAT). The AP looks at the path between
Pakistani militants and the west; for more, read Paul Cruickshank's
recent research paper on the 'militant pipeline' (AP, NAF).
The Times profiles
Karachi's connections with the tribal regions, writing, "The chaos and
crime that bedevil Karachi, mainly the result of gang
warfare among armed wings of the political parties, create a near
perfect place for fighters of the Pakistani Taliban to plan and to hide.
Amid this violence, the Taliban organize, recruit and raise funds" (NYT).
Travel agents report that
bookings between the U.S. and Pakistan are down, and U.S. visa
applications for travel from Pakistan also seem to be in decline, as
more Pakistanis are seeking residence and employment in countries like
South Africa, Britain, Canada, and Australia (Wash Post).
Beckham, a real team player
British
football star David Beckham visited British troops in Helmand over the
weekend, receiving a lesson on how to handle heavy weaponry, wearing
body armor, and posing for pictures with soldiers (AFP, Tel). The former English captain commented, "I've
represented my country many times on the field, but what these
guys do representing our country is really amazing."
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US administrations have been silent partners of Pakistani governments in the death of US soldiers in Afghanistan because US administrations have willingly ignored the most fundamental fact about the emergence of Taliban insurgency after US overthrew Taliban government in 2001.
Even though Washington Post likes to relable this as ‘Obama’s war‘, there were three Bush blunders that are largely responsible for the continued failure of US mission and Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan.
First, during the siege of Kunduz in November 2001, the Bush administration allowed Pakistan to spirit away by airlift hundreds, if not thousands, of Taliban operatives cornered by the advancing Northern Alliance in Kunduz. Pakistan relocated those Taliban cadres including Mullah Mohammed Omar in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan from where Mullah Omar’s QST has been planning raids in Afghanistan ever since.
‘Quetta Shura Taliban (QST) based in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan, is the No. 1 threat to US/NATO mission in Afghanistan. At the operational level, the Quetta Shura conducts a formal campaign review each winter, after which Mullah Mohammed Omar (Afghan Taliban Chief) announces his guidance and intent for the coming year‘ as General McChrystal narrated in his August, 2009 report to President Obama. But US can not even use its drones to destroy QST that is causing daily deaths of US/NATO soldiers in Afghanistan since 2002!
Second, Bush administration did NOT provide sufficient troops to secure Afghanistan against Taliban because so many US troops were tied down in Iraq to destroy Saddam‘s imaginary weapons of mass destruction.
Third, Bush put blind faith in Musharraf’s Pakistan to fight the very terrorist threat that Pakistan itself created. So Musharraf played duplicitous game of running with the hare while hunting with the hounds. While capturing and killing some Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders based on US intelligence, Musharraf continued to shelter, protect and support Mullah Mohammed Omar’s Quetta Shura Taliban in Quetta, provincial capital of Baluchistan and Haqqani network in North Waziristan. Bush naively tolerated such a duplicitous Musharraf game.
Obama administration has continued Bush’s mollycoddling of Pakistan at the expense of Afghanistan and hence will continue to pay the price.
Re: Taliban attack Kandahar air field
First, during the siege of Kunduz in November 2001, the Bush administration allowed Pakistan to spirit away by airlift hundreds, if not thousands, of Taliban operatives cornered by the advancing Northern Alliance in Kunduz. Pakistan current political news relocated those Taliban cadres including Mullah Mohammed Omar in Quetta, the provincial capital of Baluchistan from where Mullah Omar’s QST has been planning raids in Afghanistan ever since.
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