Thursday, December 17, 2009 - 10:59 AM
By Shuja Nawaz
Even in its waning days, 2009 continues to be a ‘Year of Decision' in Pakistan, as its fractured polity struggles to right the ship of state while tackling the rising insurgencies inside its borders. This was the year that Pakistan took the battle to the insurgency, first in Swat and Malakand and then into the heart of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas. The Pakistan Army's decisive actions in South Waziristan deprived the Tehreek-e-Taliban of Pakistan of its tribal base in Mehsud territory. Public sentiment against the violent insurgency helped the military's decision to take the battle to the TTP's home turf. And although the TTP's leadership has apparently escaped into adjoining areas, the logistical heart of the insurgency was damaged. The militants retaliated by stepping up attacks on soft targets inside Pakistan, attacking mosques and markets alike, killing innocent civilians and children.
On the economic front, after decades of wrangling about revenue sharing between the provinces, the National Finance Commission under former Citibanker Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin produced an agreement on a new formula that increased the share of Baluchistan and rearranged the shares of other provinces in a more equitable manner. The NFC award will help reduce the centrifugal forces that threaten the federation.
Then, on December 16, 2009, the Supreme Court of Pakistan overturned the infamous National Reconciliation Ordinance under which former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari could return to Pakistan, having been absolved, along with thousands of other beneficiaries, of all past crimes and misdemeanors, real or imagined. Then-President Gen. Pervez Musharraf had promulgated the Ordinance on October 5, 2007 and when that was challenged by numerous petitions on the basis that it was discriminatory and favored selected individuals with whom Musharraf wished to make deals, Musharraf responded by declaring an emergency on November 3, 2007 that sent Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and the senior judiciary packing for the second time. He then, under a Provisional Constitutional Order, forcibly inserted the NRO into the constitution of Pakistan. These actions were often referred to as Musharraf's "second coup," this time against his own government. His intent was to facilitate a return to a controlled civilian system under which he would remain president while Bhutto could return as a potential head of the government. That was not to be: Bhutto was assassinated. Musharraf was hounded out of office. Zardari became president. And the Supreme Court's Chief Justice Chaudhry was reinstated on March 16, 2009, for the second time, promising to return the judiciary to its rightful place as a key pillar of the state.
Among the key cases that were reopened by the Supreme Court was the NRO and the absolution it provided to Pakistan's tarnished political elite, including the new President Zardari. Yesterday's decision reinstates all the cases that were dismissed and significantly, directed the government to set up courts to resolve the pending cases speedily, including the revival of a bribery and corruption case in which the Government of Pakistan had been a complainant against Zardari and Bhutto in a Swiss court. Lawyers and supporters will have a field day invoking presidential immunity for Zardari. But public pressure will surely mount against him and his party as well as other politicians who have been tarred with the NRO brush.
If 2009 was the Year of Decision for Pakistan, 2010 may well be the Year of Tumult. And it could not come at a worse time. The army is still battling a vicious insurgency in the western borderland. The United States is counting on a stable Pakistan to help it exit from Afghanistan gracefully. U.S. drone attacks on the border and Taliban bombings in the hinterland alike have enraged the Pakistani populace. The army is under pressure from its U.S. allies to open a fresh front against the Afghan Taliban in Baluchistan, an action that makes no sense to the army. The roller coaster U.S.-Pakistan relationship seems heading for another deep dive, unless cooler heads prevail. Now the government faces a test of its ability to function while acceding to the Supreme Court's annulment of the NRO.
Kudos to Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani's government for choosing not to defend the NRO before the Supreme Court, nor to present it for passage as a law before parliament. And kudos to the Supreme Court for restoring the constitution to its rightful place in Pakistan's polity. But the tumult unleashed by this decision will make for a difficult transition to the rule of law, especially as opponents press for Zardari's departure. So this may be an opportunity for the untainted few among Pakistan's political leadership to take charge and for the friends of Pakistan to support them, and this is not time for business as usual nor for half-measures. Insurgencies rage, while uncertainty rules in Pakistan as it enters the New Year.
Shuja Nawaz is Director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council in Washington DC.
ASIF HASSAN/AFP/Getty Images
The Year of Decision in Pakistan
The year 2010 will be crucial for Pakistan. The kind of turmoil and disruption that has happened in 2009 is perhaps the worst in the country's history, even surpassing the turbulent times witnessed during the East Pakistan crisis back in the late 1960's.
Pakistan is like a broken ship stuck in the high waters. Worst of all, this ship is rudderless, completely at the mercy of a few mercenaries who have the possession of the life-saving equipment that they use for their own survival.
This torture and terror cannot go on for ever. There always is an end to anarchy. One foresees a stampede situation taking place in the near future. We might soon see the 're-making' of Pakistan.
Our real problem is brutal wave of terrorism occurring on daily basis in our settled areas.Terrorists are taking our lives and our weak government is killing us through her poor management in which our rights of common citizen are taking away from us.
No power, no gas, no jobs and high level corruption are our all time threats.Supreme court decisions are understandable to only small community of Pakistan and it would produce affects of good governance in coming years.But our real problems are our food shortages to majority of population and huge displacement of people due to war activities in our northern borders.
So as long as we would be stick to war on terror,no year will bring change in our prevailing conditions.
Understood that terrorism and bad governance are Pakistan's major problems. However, have you ever scratched your head and wondered how Pakistan reached this point of no return and who was responsible for it? Well, amongst many other reasons, ISI and the Pakistani Army head the list.
Also, have you ever wondered why Pakistan's people-related problems are never resolved? It is because it suits the military and its leadership.
Terrorism is the creation of ISI and the scourge of Taliban is in itself a brutal brainchild of the generals. And, they want to keep this problem alive and kicking so that the main issues of the day are never paid attention to by the masses.
Please stop blaming the West, Israel and India for your follies and the menacingly corrupt nation. Stop pointing fingers and get real!
truth is more bitter but still better remedy
Before 1980s Pakistan was remembered as liberal and moderate state and hardly anyone heard the wave of extremism as we are seeing now a days.
Who made ISI corrupt by sending dollars in sacs?
Who controlled the training camps by supplying them free arms, military training and drug channels in this era on our northern borders.
The people who are declared corrupt and suspicious are always kept in good books of US and always occupy crucial seats in state affairs.
Terrorism is surely secured by ISI but all is fabricated in CIA offices and ISI just play the role of obeying orders.
This war on terror is not imposed by ISI intelligence but under US pressure of serious threats and by bribing our weak leaders.
War on terror was requirement of west and for bringing destruction in Muslim countries.This has badly divided our opinion as a nation even our resilient army circle are showing rebellion attitude toward its imposition in complicated areas of Pakistan.
So we know all the criminal history of ISI and our corrupt leadership but see carefully who always stand behind them. This is important to know as to get into real conclusion of destruction of our culture, peace and infrastructure.
truth is more bitter but still better remedy
There you go again! Blame, blame and just blame others for your blemishes! Think outside the box and try to focus on not the superfluous or the extraordinarily, overwhelmingly 'outside interference' but on the fallaciously wretched acts and omissions of the Pakistani military leadership.
Pakistan may have been known as a moderate polity before the 1980s. However, do you remember the pressure exerted by the mullahs to name the country as 'Islamic Republic' in the 1950s? Do you also remember the 'anti-Ahmadi riots of the 60s and the 70s? What about the ambitions to play a lead role in the Islamic world and the initiatives taken by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the 70s? How about the 'Islamic Bomb' project? Was this all CIA orchestrated?
The only moderate element that I can find in Pakistan's history is in the personality of M. A. Jinnah, the nation's founder. Sadly, he also played into the hands of the mullahs and fought for the creation of a 'Muslim' state rather than just a secular state.
Pakistan has been and still remains a chaos, an utterly obnoxious, jumbled up, confused unnatural growth of people brought together by a religion that perhaps has no standing of its own in the modern-day world.
Btw, what really is pathetically shameful is the fact that this nation 'elected' AAZ as its president! It goes to show that either there was no better choice or the people are so ignorant that their standard of intellect is tremendously downtrodden!
In the meantime, the generals for generations and continue to loot, plunder and make merry. The pomp and show with which they go about their respective lives is something to ponder about. Free housing, free domestic help, free cars, chauffeurs, free prime real estate wherever and whenever they want, bank accounts in the Switzerland, children studying on scholarships in the West…the list is never ending. Any thoughts?
Militaristic orientation is definitely a problem is Pakistan. However, even so, it is not the root of radicalism. The root of radicalism -- right or wrong -- is the presence of US in the region. This is inflammatory, whether that is rational or not to the --largely illiterate -- people.
In a bigger sense if the USA was not so addicted to oil that it supported repressive regimes -- including Pakistani ones -- in the region the people would have an easier go of things.
We support tyrants in Suadi, Pakistan, Jordan, Egypt, not to mention the out-and-out Zionazi war criminal regime in Israel.
Is it a surprise there is Anti-Americanism? Why is there rampant Anti-Americanism in the middle east? Many reasons, but we have to admit our fault: our bad policies, as even the Defense Science Board has admitted (see below).
Some of AQ's causes are legitimate even if their means to achieve them are WRONG.
Our flawed foreign policy engenders anti-Americanism.
We have indirectly killed >1 million muslim civilians in Iraq and Af/Pak. Why did this not make news on NYT or WaPo?
The US-led war on terrorism has left in its wake a far more unstable world than existed on that momentous day in 2001: Rather than diminishing, the threat from al Qaeda and its affiliates has grown, engulfing new regions of Africa, Asia, and Europe and creating fear among peoples from Australia to Zanzibar. The US invasions of two Muslim countries have so far failed to contain either the original organization or the threat that now comes from its copycats in British or French cities who have been mobilized through the Internet. The al Qaeda leader is still at large, despite the largest manhunt in history.
Afghanistan is once again staring down the abyss of state collapse, despite billions of dollars in aid, a hundred thousand Western troops, and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. The Taliban have made a dramatic comeback. The international community had an extended window of opportunity for several years to help the Afghan people—they failed to take advantage of it.
Pakistan has undergone a slower but equally bloody meltdown. In 2007 there were 56 suicide bombings in Pakistan that killed 640 people, compared to just 6 bombings in the previous year.
In 2009, American power lies shattered, US credibility lies in ruins. Ultimately the strategies of the Bush administration have created a far bigger crisis in South and Central Asia than existed before 9/11.
Eight years of neocon foreign policies have been a spectacular disaster for American interests in the Islamic world, leading to the rise of Iran as a major regional power, the advance of Hamas and Hezbollah, the wreckage of Iraq, with over two million external refugees and the ethnic cleansing of its Christian population, and now the implosion of Afghanistan and Pakistan, probably the most dangerous development of all.
This is what the US government’s Defense Science Board has to say on the situation
“American efforts have not only failed in this respect: they may also have achieved the opposite of what they intended.
American direct intervention in the Muslim World has paradoxically elevated the stature of and support for radical Islamists, while diminishing support for the United States to single-digits in some Arab societies.
• Muslims do not “hate our freedom,” but rather, they hate our policies.
The overwhelming majority voice their objections to what they see as one-sided support in favor of Israel and against Palestinian rights, and the longstanding, even increasing support for what Muslims collectively see as tyrannies, most notably Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Pakistan, and the Gulf states.
• Thus when American public diplomacy talks about bringing democracy to Islamic societies, this is seen as no more than self-serving hypocrisy. Moreover, saying that
“freedom is the future of the Middle East” is seen as patronizing, suggesting that Arabs are like the enslaved peoples of the old Communist World — but Muslims do not feel this way: they feel oppressed, but not enslaved.
• Furthermore, in the eyes of Muslims, American occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq has not led to democracy there, but only more chaos and suffering. U.S. actions appear in contrast to be motivated by ulterior motives, and deliberately controlled in order to best serve American national interests at the expense of truly Muslim selfdetermination.
• Therefore, the dramatic narrative since 9/11 has essentially borne out the entire radical Islamist bill of particulars. American actions and the flow of events have
elevated the authority of the Jihadi insurgents and tended to ratify their legitimacy among Muslims. Fighting groups portray themselves as the true defenders of an Ummah (the entire Muslim community) invaded and under attack — to broad public support.
• What was a marginal network is now an Ummah-wide movement of fighting groups. Not only has there been a proliferation of “terrorist” groups: the unifying context of a shared cause creates a sense of affiliation across the many cultural and sectarian boundaries that divide Islam.”
====
Our messing around overseas (witness our clear involvement with the terrorist murder of 5 Iranian revolutionary guards recently) causes blowback terrorism. It does not matter whether or not AQ has any safe havens or not or whether Hezbollah is rearming— regular people — heck, even US army officers, it appears — can become radicalized by the sheer extent of our injustice abroad.
Note I am not justifying what they did. Their means are WRONG. But their cause is, at least partly, just.
We need to stop our addiction to oil and leave the middle east.
Force — even when wielded by the seemingly strong against the nominally weak — continues to be an exceedingly uncertain instrument. The United States’ penchant for projecting power has created as many problems as it has solved. Genuinely decisive outcomes remain rare, costs often far exceed expectations, and unintended and unwelcome consequences are legion.
The pursuit of US military dominance is an illusion, the principal effect of which is to distort strategic judgment by persuading policymakers that they have at hand the means to make short work of history’s complexities. The real need is to wean the United States from its infatuation with military power and come to a more modest appreciation of what force can and cannot do.
We have to come to the painful conclusion that we have created much of the terrorism and anti-Americanism that we are subject to via our terrible foreign policies. It will be difficult to protect us from our (well-earned) blowback without fixing our own foreign policy.
Here is the link to the MIT official who calculates >1000000 dead muslim civilians as a result of our war of choice.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12150
So, we also have a (probably dominant) part in radicalizing the people in the region: middle east and asia.
Would that some of our crap-ass politicians would propose to wean us off of oil, as Prof Andrew Bacevich and Thomas Friedman have suggested.
Pakistan army had started its journey as pure secular force which design was made by British rulers.So saying Islamic republic didn't take us toward the way to fanaticism.Your latter half comments is self explanatory of your negation which you did in first paragraph,
Initially these generals in British plating form used key of Islam word to attract the Kashmirs and its political leadership toward them which was the hot cake for them to keep the dominance of military and CIA in our region,
Qadiyani riots were instigated to please the Saudi group and a small group in govt level supported this idea to get more aide from Saudis.Saudi friendship is some kind of our strong weakness as we cant think of leaving our rich and dishonest friends at all costs of lost dignity and that is what we did in qadyini case.Again political tactics were more dominant in this case rather than religious factor.
The mess of religious affairs were artificiality created and got its peak in Zia regime and we have no doubt that CIA was all behind this mess.
Now this set a fire strategy has turned our country as cocktails of different ethnic and religious beliefs where our solutions are only hidden on aggressive army combats on our misguided and frustrated groups.
Army is still in mood of playing pranks with its people and CIA is as such standing firm behind these generals with more deadly solutions for people of Pakistan..
People of Pakistan real problem is brutal wave of terrorism occurring on daily basis in Their settled areas.Terrorists are taking their lives and their weak government is killing them through her poor management in which their rights of common citizen are taking away from them. Greeting, Kayla FM jobs
Pakistan cannot postpone indefinitely the two "crunch" moments: it must decide whether to expand its military operations into the rest of the FATA (above all in to the Waziris) and whether to allow the expansion of US drone operations into northern Balochistan. In this sense the dynamics unfolding in Buner, Dir and Swat - where things are not all going the Pakistan army's way despite its up-beat rhetoric - are simply the overture to the main performance the United States has come to require of the Pakistanis as their contribution to the "AfPak" strategy (see Anatol Lieven, "Pakistan's American problem", 6 May 2009).
This is undoubtedly a difficult period for the Pakistan army and ISI (whose own building felt the effects of the Lahore blast on 27 May). The Taliban's return to strength in Afghanistan, a weakening in Nato's resolve, and the element of desperation in the US "surge" strategy (in the sense that there will be few options if it fails) together have huge implications for the Pakistani army's calculus: the thinking in army headquarters must be that Pakistani objectives in Afghanistan are within reach only if US pressure can be borne, the Afghan Taliban can be protected, and the Pakistan Taliban contained.
In this tight position, the Pakistani army may - just - glimpse open sea. If the humanitarian situation were to deteriorate too severely in the FATA/NWFP, and international pressure for a cessation of the Pakistani assault grew as a result, this could provide a context for Pakistan to argue that it can no longer prosecute the war. This could in turn allowing it to ease the pressure from the US and abandon the commitment to an assault on North and South Waziristan. Regards,
Seo Company
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