Crunching the numbers on Karzai's fraud

By J Alexander Thier Share

By J Alexander Thier

Afghanistan's Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) released its findings on Sunday, showing that there were nearly 1.3 million fraudulent votes in Afghanistan's August 20 presidential election. In a letter to Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission (IEC), the ECC announced that it found some 210 polling stations riddled with fraud, from the sample of 350 polling stations it had examined. When this total is applied to the entire group of questionable ballot boxes, the result is over 2,100 polling stations disqualified, containing 1.26 million votes.

Those disqualifications leave incumbent Afghan President Hamid Karzai with some 48.3 percent of the vote, according to my calculations and those done by Democracy International. It also gave a small boost to Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the leading challenger with 31.5 percent of the vote, and third place finisher Ramazan Bashadost with just over 10 percent of the vote.

The IEC, long accused of being biased in favor of Karzai, received the information from the ECC on Sunday but has yet to say whether it will apply these findings to the vote total and certify the results of the election. If accepted, these results would require a run-off between Karzai and Abdullah. The Afghan constitution calls for the run-off to proceed within two weeks of the announcement of the results, although preparations for the vote would likely take a bit longer.

Perhaps more importantly, it remains unclear whether Karzai will accept the outcome of the ECC decision. Afghan and international powerbrokers are reportedly filing in and out of the presidential palace, either trying to encourage Karzai to accept the decision or to make a power-sharing deal.

The two-month long post-election calamity -- longer than our own national electoral nightmare in 2000 -- has further contributed to Afghanistan's growing instability.

Stay tuned to the AfPak Channel for more election analysis as news breaks.

J Alexander Thier is the Director for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace. He is co-author and editor of "The Future of Afghanistan" (USIP, 2009). He lived in Afghanistan for about 7 of the last 16 years, and travels there frequently.

Paula Bronstein/Getty Images

 
Facebook|Twitter|Digg
About Us The Blog Contributors Archive

Is Operation Moshtarak a fool’s mission?

BY NORINE MACDONALD | FEB. 8, 2010

We should be asking some critical questions about the now, much-publicized NATO and Afghan forces operation to take Marjah district in Helmand. For starters: How does this operation fit into the overall strategy for Afghanistan -- why Marjah and why now?

Read Entire Entry

A London fog on Afghanistan

BY GILLES DORRONSORO | FEB. 5, 2010

In restive provinces like Helmand and Kandahar, rallying the foot soldiers of the insurgency is simply never going to work, because they are fighting in defense of values -- such as Islam, and freedom from foreign occupation -- that they see under attack. Even if the coalition achieves limited tactical successes, the Taliban will quickly replace the fighters it loses, and it can easily target the "traitors." These coalition tactics are not new and have never worked before. Why does the White House think they'll work now, with the insurgency stronger than ever?

Read Entire Entry

In Dostum's Debt

BY BRIAN GLYN WILLIAMS | FEB. 4, 2010

When the Karzai government announced last week that it would be reinstating Abdul Rashid Dostum, the controversial Uzbek general, as Chief of Staff of the Army, the cries of foul and protest rang loud. But, when it comes to Afghan politics there is usually more than meets the eye, and Dostum's case is no exception. As usual in Afghanistan it involves some back-room deals.

Read Entire Entry

The Devil is in the Details

BY NORINE MACDONALD | FEB. 2, 2010

During last week's London conference, President Karzai unveiled a six-point "Action Plan" designed to turn around the situation in Afghanistan. But how much "action" is really behind the political façade of his six-point plan?

Read Entire Entry

Karzai's Taliban Surprise

BY J ALEXANDER THIER | JAN. 29, 2010

The Afghanistan Conference in London this week was expected to be a just one more in a series of international talk-fests intended as a show of international solidarity with Afghanistan. But Karzai took things a step further -- and took his hosts by surprise -- by using his speech to call for high level negotiations with the Taliban leadership that would result in permanent political reconciliation. Karzai has opened this door repeatedly before, and there have been several attempts to engage Taliban leaders seriously in talks.

Read Entire Entry

Dead Aid for Afghanistan?

BY GERARD RUSSELL | JAN. 27, 2010

Dependence cannot be ended overnight. But President Karzai’s circle is wrong to suppose that it can continue forever. It is far better, for Afghanistan’s long-term future, that they learn this sooner rather than later.

Read Entire Entry

Peter Bergen's Take

U.S. intelligence briefing: Taliban increasingly effective

BY PETER BERGEN | JAN. 26, 2010

A December 22 briefing, prepared by the top U.S. intelligence official in Afghanistan and obtained by CNN, maps out the strategy and strength of the Taliban and their allies in Afghanistan, and concludes that the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is increasingly effective.

Read Entire Entry

Images from the most-talked about place of 2009.

A primer on the epicenter of global terrorism.
By Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann

A guide to the most critical readings on Afghanistan and Pakistan.