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Daily brief: bloody coordinated attacks on security targets shake Pakistan

Thu, 10/15/2009 - 7:59am

A bloody day

Suspected Taliban militants have unleashed a new wave of attacks on security targets in Pakistan, as 25 gunmen stormed three law enforcement agencies this morning in Lahore, Pakistan's cultural capital, and a suicide bomber blew up part of a police station in the northwestern city of Kohat (Washington Post, AFP, New York Times, Dawn, CNN, Telegraph, Guardian). At least 37 people, including militants, Pakistani policemen, and civilians, have been killed in the fifth set of major assaults in ten days, bringing the number of people killed in the attacks up to some 150 (BBC, Dawn, Geo TV, Wall Street Journal). A blast has also been heard in the capital of the Northwest Frontier Province, Peshawar, and Pakistani police say a car bomb exploded near a school, killing at least five including children (Geo TV, AP, Dawn, ABC News, NDTV).

The attacks in Lahore, Peshawar, and Kohat come ahead of a planned Pakistan Army offensive in the Taliban stronghold of South Waziristan, where airstrikes continue to pound the mountainous terrain as more soldiers and tanks move in (Reuters, Dawn, Daily Times). About 200,000 people have fled the area since August (AP). And a suspected U.S. drone reportedly struck an alleged militant compound in Dandey Darpa Khel, a town in the North Waziristan tribal agency where the Haqqani militant network is said to be active, killing at least four people (BBC, Geo TV, AFP). There have been nearly 80 drone strikes in Pakistan's tribal areas since the beginning of 2008.

The Kerry-Lugar bill to give Pakistan $1.5 billion a year in aid annually for the next five years awaits U.S. President Barack Obama's signature into law, but the language has not been changed to assuage Pakistani military concerns that some of the conditions impinge on the country's sovereignty (AP). An explanatory statement clarifying the intent of the bill will reportedly be entered into the record, though such statements do not have the force of law (McClatchy).

A meeting of minds

Obama's war council of advisers met for the fifth time yesterday morning to discuss the war in Afghanistan, and the meeting reportedly focused on efforts to strengthen the civilian mission in the country (CNN, AFP, AP, Reuters, Washington Post). The White House denied a report from the BBC that the Obama administration had already told the British government that it would soon announce a substantial increase in troops in Afghanistan (BBC, Politico, Telegraph). Some 50 Taliban militants were killed yesterday in Afghanistan in two separate coalition operations in Ghazni and Uruzgan (AP).

Tom Coghlan and Nico Hines report that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi denied knowledge of a series of secret payments by Italian troops in an area east of Kabul designed to pay off Taliban militants to remain inactive (Times of London). The French troops replacing the Italian contingent in Sarobi were reportedly not told about the "tens of thousands of dollars" of bribes that had allegedly kept the area comparatively peaceful, though both the French and Italian militaries deny the allegations (Times of London, AFP, AP).

Oh no you don't

The drama surrounding Afghanistan's never-ending, corruption-ridden presidential election continues, as incumbent Afghan President Hamid Karzai rejected the resignation of one of the two Afghan members of the U.N.-backed body over his claims that the Western members of the Electoral Complaints Commission were making unilateral decisions (Pajhwok, AP). A decision about Afghanistan's election is expected in the coming days.

And analysts say that second place candidate Abdullah Abdullah's reaction to a potential Karzai victory could determine whether "Afghanistan erupts in clashes between Abdullah's Tajik supporters and Karzai's Pashtun followers or whether it calmly transitions to a coalition government" -- though a fractured one (Washington Post). A second round of elections would pose a host of logistical and security problems in Afghanistan as its bitter winter approaches (AP).

Dexter Filkins turns his keen reporting eye to profiling top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan Gen. Stanley McChrystal in this weekend's must-read in the New York Times Magazine (New York Times).

A big deal

Najibullah Zazi, the Denver resident arrested on terrorism charges related to a plot to bomb targets in New York City around September 11, reportedly had contact with al Qaeda's chief in Afghanistan, an Egyptian called Mustafa Abu al-Yazid who is thought to be one of the founders of the terrorist group (AP, New York Daily News). Though the contact was purportedly via an intermediary, it indicates al Qaeda's intense interest in the operation and distinguishes the case from other wannabe terrorists who acted on their own.

It was only a kiss

One of Pakistan's top universities is planning to issue a code of conduct to ban public displays of affection after a female student's peck on the cheek of her boyfriend generated controversy on campusĀ  (Christian Science Monitor). Lahore-based blogger Asif Akhtar commented, "In a country where there's an ongoing debate about the role of religion and the state, that debate is going to spill over into all aspects of public life and college campuses."

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Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images

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CALL to creation of an ASEAN force (pipe dreams or realistic?)

The strategy in afghanistan should be a multi-national south asian force able to hold the peace and build a nation with us for decades.
This force should be able to go across the border between afghanistan and pakistan and fight AQ and taliban. This force should be able to do that because it would compromise of military personnel from pakistan and india and srilanka and bangladesh and china if willing. The force should be at 200,000 strong. The force will be large enough to implement the COIN strategy. The key thing that this force does is a step forward to the thought that india/pakistan should start considering themselves more of an ASEAN union where they can make progress as a region vs the competitive mentality that they have currently.

But how do we get both india and pakistan on-board. It is simple, we play that competitive mentality into offering carrots not as seperate pieces but together to the region. The terrorists inside pakistan not only pose a danger to pakistan (now) but also to india. The as is situation would be a continuation of the cross border terrorism in india and in border terrorism in pakistan.

The threat of putting all our eggs into one basket needs to be shown. If Pakistan doesn't come on-board then we will increase military co-operation with india on a very high level giving the pakistanis no choice to be part of the solution. India has to be waived the carrot of more military arms supplies, visas and business co-operation and nuclear co-operation to the stick of cutting of the co-operation that we have already and putting the indian economy at risk because us/india economies are very co-dependant.
There has to be many other ways we can strong arm these two countries in contributing troops and to the idea of joint counterinsurgency/anti-terrorism force. This force needs to be used as stepping stone towards creating a ASEAN union and economy.

The war in afghanistan has a seperatist more than a terrorist agenda. Pashtun populace is not represented and marginailized by both pakistan and afghan governments. Second leg of the strategy requires creating an pashtun government independent of hardcore taliban and allied with both afghan/pak central government. This is where Major Khans strategy comes in. We create this central pockets of government like structures and keep it safe deep in pashtun territory.

This government should be able to sent representatives to both afghanistan/pakistan central government and be able to enforce law and order across the border regions. Law and order can be based on sharia law/tribal law whatever the pashtun populace wants. South Asia will always have seperatist tendencies because of the post colonial creation of borders that does not respect ethnic solidarity across borders. Time has come to create an ASEAN union where borders does not matter.

The idea for the long-term being a creation of ASEAN union like the european union with strong democracies supporting and economically uplifting the weak. Not only united states but india and pakistan supporting afghanistan together. What has to be shown to the political and military elites that with the creation of an ASEAN union they only stand to gain. What has to be shown to the seperatists that is with the elimination of borders they can have their ethnic solidarity and representation. Central governments does not matter what matters are local governments with broad ASEAN union support.

The current strategy is bound to fail because it relies on pak military destroying taliban/AQ from the pakistani side. Its doing a half-ass job, because as long its doing a half-ass job we will be contributing money. They do not want to fight their own country-men and know that our appetite to stay in afghanistan is low. Pakistan military is defined by its conflicts with india and will funnel the money that we give to its military interest in fighting india. Once we leave they will go back to fighting proxy war in afghanistan and india via the taliban/AQ/Pak terrorist nexus. The truth is that the pakistan military cannot fight the taliban alone and there are not enough troops to implement the COIN strategy on the afghan and pakistan side. Its time they start to think of their democratic neighbours as allies instead of enemies.

We have to convince pakistan the only war worth fighting is the one within its border and india that it has to support pakistan's civilian government, military and better get involved. It should be a part of a greater regional strategy that eradicates terrorism by using the regional powers and our influence.