Karachi under fire

Asuicide bomber on a motorcycle rammed into a bus full of Shia Muslimsnear a furniture market en route to a religious procession in thesouthern Pakistani port city of Karachi earlier this morning, killingat least 12 and wounding 55, after weeks of deadly political violenceand ethnic tension in the commercial capital (BBC, AJE, AP, AFP, Dawn, Bloomberg, Geo).Another bomb blast occurred an hour later at the Jinnah Hospital inKarachi, where many of the injured from the first attack had beentaken, killing at least ten (Geo, AP, Dawn).There have been no claims of responsibility yet, but tensions betweenthe city's Sunni majority and Shias have been high since a blasttargeting a Shia procession inDecember killed more than 40 ( AP).

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The center of gravity

In an unusually public series of pronouncements, U.S., NATO, and Afghan military officials have announced that the largest joint military offensive since 2001 will soon be underway, targeting Marjah, a Taliban-held town in the volatile southern province of Helmand, the surrounding district of which is home to around 125,000 people and between 600 and 1,700 Taliban and foreign fighters (NYT, WSJ, FT, Pajhwok, ABC, AP, AJE). Though the start date of the operations is not disclosed for security reasons, officials have been hinting about it for months, which has an important benefit: civilians given warning may flee the area, but so might Taliban fighters, to regroup elsewhere, but if the Taliban choose flight over fight, the government could have the chance to tout a "relatively easy win." However, the Taliban could also dig in and fortify their defenses of the town, and more than 30 militants were reportedly killed in Helmand in joint operations yesterday (Pajhwok).

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A bomb blast

Three U.S. soldiers who were in Pakistan as part of a small, low-profile unit that trains members of the Pakistani Frontier Corps were killed earlier this morning when a remote-control roadside bomb exploded near a girls' school celebrating its opening in the tribal area of Lower Dir (NYT, AP, AFP, Reuters, BBC, Dawn, Geo, Islamabad Embassy statement). At least seven others, including four schoolgirls and a Frontier Corps soldier, were also killed in the blast, and around 70 children and a few journalists were wounded; the Pakistani Army last year declared Dir free of the Taliban, and this is one of the deadliest attacks on Americans in Pakistan in decades (ABC). The Pakistani Taliban took responsibility for the attack and claimed those Americans killed were employees of the security contracting firm Blackwater (AFP).

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Violence in Pakistan

Fierce fighting between the Pakistani military, backed by helicopter gunships and fighter jets, and Taliban militants continues in the northwestern Pakistani tribal agency of Bajaur, the site of a major military offensive in 2008 that had pushed the Taliban from their strongholds, and troops are reportedly advancing on the militants' main training area in Damadola (BBC, AP, Dawn, AFP, The News). The ongoing clashes demonstrate the resiliency of the militant movement in Pakistan's tribal regions; Pakistani authorities have imposed a curfew on several towns in Bajaur, and thousands of local residents have reportedly fled the area.

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Speculation

Rumors that the current chief of the Pakistani Taliban died of wounds sustained in an alleged U.S. drone strike in mid-January resurfaced yesterday after a state-run Pakistani television station aired reports that he was killed, and two Obama administration officials told the New York Times and the Washington Post they were at least 90 percent certain Hakimullah Mehsud had died (Wash Post, NYT, The News, Daily Times, WSJ, AP, McClatchy). The Pakistani channel also claimed Hakimullah had been taken to the tribal agency of Orakzai and buried several days ago in the village of Tajaka.

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Secret diplomacy

The outgoing chief of the U.N. mission in Afghanistan, diplomat Kai Eide, reportedly met with members of the Afghan Taliban's Quetta shura leadership council on January 8 in Dubai, at the request of the militant leaders (Reuters, FT, Guardian, WSJ, AFP, McClatchy, BBC). Though reconciliation is a key part of the U.S. and Afghan governments' strategies for the country, it is unknown what was accomplished at the Dubai meeting or which Taliban envoys attended.

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A London bridge

As today's much-heralded international summit on Afghanistan in London kicked off earlier today, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned, "By the middle of next year, we have to turn the tide," as his co-host Afghan President Hamid Karzai cautioned that Kabul will need international support for up to 15 years (NYT, AFP, WSJ, BBC, Guardian, FT, BBC, Tel). As expected, Karzai laid out the bones of his plan for reconciling with Taliban militants, saying he would hold a traditional loya jirga this spring, the first major tribal meeting in eight years, and called on Saudi Arabia to play a role in mediation, which Pakistan hopes to do as well (Reuters, BBC, Wash Post, CNN, Pajhwok, AJE, Guardian). A second major gathering is being planned in Kabul in a few months.

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Wonk Watch: The January issue of West Point's CTC Sentinel is full of valuable articles, including an examination of Pakistan's adaptation to counterinsurgency by New America Foundation research fellow Sameer Lalwani, and a look at the Taliban presence in Karachi by Imtiaz Ali (CTC-pdf).

The conference buzz

Nearly all the news about Afghanistan relates to tomorrow's international conference in London and plans for reconciling or reintegrating Taliban fighters with the Afghan government; five former Taliban officials were just removed from a U.N. 'blacklist' after Russia stopped blocking the move, while donor countries are expected to commit $100 million a year for five years toward a 'reintegration' fund (AFP, Guardian, Wash Post, The News, NYT, AJE, Pajhwok, LAT, BBC). The Afghan finance minister brought up the idea of integrating Taliban officials across all levels of the government and said the militant group is ready to negotiate, a claim quickly denied by a Taliban spokesman (FT, Bloomberg).

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