AfPak Daily Brief

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"There are warlords and there are warlords"

As part of her media outreach following yesterday's inauguration of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave a brief but wide-ranging interview to Afghanistan's Azadi Radio (State Department, AFP). Maintaining a conciliatory tone towards the embattled president, Clinton expressed a wish for the presence of more professionals and technocrats in the Afghan government; when asked whether the U.S. would support a Karzai administration with warlords, she said, "Well, there are warlords and there are warlords."

In today's must-read, Rajiv Chandrasekaran details the genesis and implications of the Obama administration's new, "softer" approach to dealing with Karzai (Washington Post). This new "reset" involves more direct interaction between senior Obama administration officials and Afghan government officials, while taking a less aggressive and more cooperative tone with Karzai, implicitly admitting that past behavior towards Karzai may have worsened, not helped, the situation in Afghanistan.

While figures like Vice President Joe Biden and Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Ambassador Richard Holbrooke will interact less with Karzai under the new approach, Hillary Clinton is emerging as a crucial link between the Obama administration and Karzai, due to her self-described "long-term positive relationship" with the Afghan president (New York Times).

And Karzai's inauguration in a locked-down, fortified Kabul drew tepid reviews from Afghan observers and Western officials alike (Independent). While Karzai sounded encouraging notes on fighting corruption and building up Afghan security forces in front of the closed audience of dignitaries, many are concerned about his ability to follow through on his promises (Wall Street Journal). Others questioned the presence in the government of men such as Abdul Rashid Dostum and Abdul Rahim Wardak, who are accused of committing grievous crimes (McClatchy, Guardian).

A market bombing

A suicide bomber on a motorcycle killed up to 16 and wounded 34 in Afghanistan's southwestern Farah Province, which borders Iran (Pajhwok, AP, Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera). Police tried in vain to stop the bomber, who detonated his explosives in the middle of a crowded square. And a roadside bomb killed three people and wounded four members of the same family in Afghanistan's eastern Khost Province (Dawn). Four attacks have hit Afghanistan since Karzai's inauguration yesterday, killing a total of around 30 people (AFP). And an Afghan lawmaker and erstwhile warlord narrowly escaped assassination near Kabul earlier today (AP).

Troops decision watch

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates indicated that additional troops could be deployed "swiftly" to Afghanistan if the president decides to increase U.S. forces in the country, but pointed out that logistical challenges would make any deployment slower than those for the 2007 Iraq troop surge (AP). Gates also responded to U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown's recent calls for a timeline to transition control of security to Afghan forces by saying that it was "too early" to decide on a schedule (AFP).

And as many around the world await word on Obama's decision on troops, an analysis of his rapidly-filling schedule indicates that he will have limited opportunities in the coming weeks to make a formal announcement to the public (Washington Post). Obama is not expected to announce his decision before Thanksgiving, according to White House aides (Washington Post).

Gordon Brown has been out in front of the debates on Afghanistan in recent weeks -- too far out front for some, both at home and abroad (Wall Street Journal, The Independent). U.S. officials have reportedly grown irritated at the British prime minister's attempts to influence the debate in Washington, while he faces growing opposition to the Afghan war among Britain's public and in its parliament.

And German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said Thursday that Germany has not ruled out sending more forces to Afghanistan; however, he added that any increase would depend on U.S. President Barack Obama's new war strategy as well as the commitment of the Afghan government to improve security and crack down on corruption (Reuters).

Violence in Pakistan

A roadside bomb exploded next to a passing Pakistani police vehicle yesterday in Peshawar, killing three police officers and wounding as many as to six others (AFP, Dawn, AP, New York Times, Al Jazeera). The attack comes on the heels of yesterday's suicide bomb attack on a Peshawar courthouse, and is the eighth attack in or around the northwestern Pakistani city to occur in the past two weeks.

A suspected U.S. drone strike has killed eight militants in Mir Ali, in the North Waziristan tribal agency (AP, Reuters, Dawn, AFP, BBC, CNN). The strike reportedly targeted a militant compound and a vehicle and is the second in North Waziristan in as many days.

Pakistan's Army announced that it is on the verge of seizing the South Waziristan town of Janata, believed to be the last town where the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) trained suicide bombers and other fighters (FT). The seizure of the town would indicate increased Pakistani control over the region, though the majority of Taliban fighters are believed to have fled. And while spiraling terrorist violence has convinced many in Pakistan that a U.S. presence in Afghanistan is crucial to Pakistan's security, doubts remain about the U.S.'s commitment to both countries, and the effect an influx of troops in Afghanistan might have on Pakistan (AP).

Politics in Pakistan

In another essential read today, Sabrina Tavernise analyzes the extremely tenuous Pakistani political situation, describing a Pakistan that has little faith in its elected civilian government, where constant speculation of a military coup circulates and a recent poll indicated that 59 percent of Pakistanis believe the U.S. poses a greater threat to Pakistan than India (New York Times). Other analysts concur that Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari's political position is increasingly shaky, and that without drastic reforms within his party he may soon be forced to resign or fall prey to the machinations of Pakistan's army and opposition political groups (Foreign Policy).

CIA chief Leon Panetta is in Pakistan today and held talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, finding "intelligence cooperation" according to the premier's office, and agreement on an "operational functioning between the two militaries and intelligence agencies" to eliminate the terror threat (AFP, AP). It is Panetta's second trip to Pakistan since taking office and comes just a week after U.S. National Security Adviser Jim Jones made a similar trip.

The threat from within

The arrests last week of suspected Islamist militants David Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana are unique, in that instead of plotting to attack the U.S., the two are accused of using the Chicago area as a base from which to scout targets in India and plan an attack in Denmark (Washington Post, Reuters). Counterterrorism officials are reportedly alarmed at the prospect of the U.S. being used as a base from which to plan external attacks.

A Senate committee yesterday held the first hearings into the Fort Hood shootings, with Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) among others asserting that the shootings were a "terrorist" attack (New York Times). The Pentagon also launched two separate investigations into the shootings yesterday (Washington Post). Defense Secretary Gates refused, however, to say whether or not he believed the Fort Hood shootings were an act of terrorism.

Should have just had the nose job

The chairman of the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has ruled out the return to Pakistan's team of star bowler Shoaib Akhtar, after the latter underwent liposuction surgery without seeking the PCB's permission as required by his contract (Daily Times). Akhtar, who has a long history of fitness problems, could take up to five months to recover fully from the surgery.

Editor's note: today's AfPak Channel Daily Brief was prepared by Andrew Lebovich, a research associate at the New America Foundation, and Katherine Tiedemann.

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Wonk Watch: AfPak Channel editor and New America Foundation senior fellow Peter Bergen is testifying before the House Committee on Homeland Security this morning on the evolving threat from al Qaeda to the United States. His testimony is available here and a webcast will be available here at 10:00am EST. If you would like us to consider featuring your research in Wonk Watch, email it to tiedemann@newamerica.net.

High expectations

Nearly three months after the fraud-plagued election, Afghan President Hamid Karzai was inaugurated into his second five year term, saying that he wants Afghan security forces to be under full Afghan control within five years and called for a loya jirga, or traditional council of elders, to address the insurgent threat and the country's pervasive corruption (BBC, Washington Post, AFP, Pajhwok). In a speech that hit many of the same notes he struck during the presidential campaign, Karzai called for his erstwhile presidential rival Abdullah Abdullah to join a national unity government and also reached out to Taliban fighters for reconciliation (Times of London).

Excerpts of Karzai's inauguration speech, which was attended by some 800 Afghan and foreign dignitaries, are available from the BBC (BBC, New York Times). The Taliban, for their part, dismissed the inauguration as "not a historic day" and called Kabul a "government based on nothing," though initial foreign reaction was more positive (AP). Security in the Afghan capital today was tight and the mood tense, as the government declared a holiday and encouraged Afghan and international workers alike to stay home out of fears over militant attacks (Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, Los Angeles Times).

And indeed, Afghan officials say a pair of suicide bombs in neighboring Uruzgan and Zabul provinces in southern Afghanistan killed at least ten civilians and two U.S. soldiers at around the same time Karzai was being inaugurated (AP, AFP, Reuters).

A key concern of the international community is the levels of corruption in Afghanistan, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered "what amounted to a stern pep talk to a nervous partner" to Karzai, saying in private to the president that future civilian aid from the U.S. would depend in part on how well the government addressed corruption (New York Times, Reuters). Clinton later told reporters that Kabul has not done "nearly enough to demonstrate a seriousness of purpose to tackle corruption" (New York Times, Washington Post, Pajhwok). Part of addressing the corruption problem will be rooting out the cronyism that has pervaded the government, and Karzai is facing rising calls from Afghans, Western donors, and the United States to replace many of the warlords who supported him during the election season (New York Times).

The cost of doing business?

A prime example of the scope of Afghanistan's corruption problem is the case of the Afghan minister of mines, who reportedly accepted a bribe of $30 million in exchange for awarding the country's largest development project to a Chinese firm (Washington Post, Times of London, AP). Muhammad Ibrahim Adel allegedly accepted the bribe in Dubai in late 2007, when the state-run China Metallurgical Group Corp. won the nearly $3 billion bid to extract copper from the Aynak deposit, considered one of the world's largest 'unexploited' copper deposits, in Logar province. In a press conference yesterday, Adel vehemently denied the accusation and is considering suing the Washington Post, which broke the story (Pajhwok).

Corruption, violence, and political uncertainty may cause a massive capital flight from Afghanistan, according to Al Jazeera, which reports that many Afghan business owners are already moving their assets overseas to the Gulf where the economies are safer (Al Jazeera). Another reason for the exodus is the recent increase in kidnappings for ransom of the relatives of wealthy Afghan businessmen.

Afghanistan's other elections

And in an under-covered story, McClatchy checks in on the status of Afghanistan's provincial elections -- which occurred on the same day as the presidential balloting in August and suffered from similar problems of fraud and threats of violence -- to find that many of the provincial-level contests remain unresolved (McClatchy). The U.N.-backed body charged with investigating complaints about the election is still considering 640 high-priority claims before issuing final verdicts.

Afghanistan's election drama comes as the United States is contemplating a new plan for the country, the debate around which has recently shifted toward an exit strategy, which worries some lawmakers like Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MI), who said of the Taliban that "they'll just wait us out" (Wall Street Journal). Senior officials say, however, that U.S. President Barack Obama is not calling for publicly declared handover dates, but rather "key milestones" for the country to meet.

An explosive attack

In the eighth major attack since the beginning of the month, a suicide bomber who arrived in a taxi and detonated his explosives while being searched by Pakistani police at the entrance of a courthouse in Peshawar killed at least 19 and wounded more than 50 (AP, Dawn, Geo TV, Reuters, BBC). The capital of the Northwest Frontier Province, Peshawar, has been hard hit by attacks that picked up speed in early October ahead of the Pakistani military's operations in the militant stronghold of South Waziristan (AP, Bloomberg). The spate of violence has left more than 400 Pakistanis dead.

A spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban, in a news conference yesterday in a secret location in South Waziristan, told a handful of reporters that the militant group had not retreated, as the Army has claimed, but instead said, "We have voluntarily withdrawn into the mountains under a strategy that will trap the Pakistan army in the area" (AFP, Dawn, The News). Some 550 militants have reportedly been killed since the operations began.

In the United States' 46th alleged drone strike in Pakistan this year, several missiles were fired at a suspected Taliban compound in the tribal agency of North Waziristan, killing several reported militants in the Shana Khuwara village close to the South Waziristan border (Geo TV, Reuters, BBC, Dawn, AP). There have been no reports of drone strikes in South Waziristan, previously a frequent target of the CIA-operated missiles, since the Pakistani military's offensive began on October 17.

The U.S. expects to complete a review of how to spend the $7.5 billion in aid for Pakistan by the end of November, focusing on the country's "decrepit" energy sector, which economists say undermines potential for growth and weakens the already-shaky civilian government (Reuters). It is not yet known precisely how the $1.5 billion per year will be allocated, but officials say infrastructure projects are an "important part" of the review.

Complicated connections

Indian officials are investigating whether two men, recently arrested in Chicago on terrorism charges related to planning an attack on a Danish newspaper that in 2005 published cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, have connections to the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks that left more than 160 dead (New York Times, Washington Post). David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana -- a U.S. and a Canadian citizen, respectively -- are also accused of reporting to Ilyas Kashmiri, a onetime Pakistani military officer turned Islamist militant commander associated with both al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba, and conspiring with another as-yet-unnamed former Pakistani military official, in one of the first cases in which authorities have seemed to link suspects directly to former officers, though such connections have long been suspected.

And in almost a dozen recent terrorism cases in the U.S., U.K., and Canada, investigators have discovered a common thread among the suspects: devotion to messages from the radical U.S.-born Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi, who has apparently used the internet to useful effect in radicalization (New York Times). Aulaqi has been linked to the Fort Hood and Fort Dix attacks, among others.

Happily ever later

Thousands of Pakistanis have demanded that the government of Punjab province not implement a recently passed resolution to stop performing marriage ceremonies after 10:00pm (The News). The neighboring Sindh government allows marriage ceremonies until 12:00am, and the protesters want Punjab to follow suit.

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The waiting game

U.S. President Barack Obama reportedly told CNN today that he is "very close" to making a decision about whether to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan and plans to make an announcement "in the next several weeks," after more than two months of deliberations (Reuters, Reuters). Obama is reportedly angry about the stream of leaks that has come out about his Afghanistan decision, telling CBS, "For people to be releasing info in the course of deliberations is not appropriate" and said yes when asked if that is a "firing offense" (CBS, Politico). Meanwhile, Afghans are on hold, waiting for Obama to announce a decision and for President Hamid Karzai to be inaugurated tomorrow and appoint his cabinet of ministers (AP, Reuters).

Whether Karzai will appoint reformers or stack his cabinet with political friends remains an open question that worries Afghan and international observers alike (AFP, Independent). Doubts are growing as to whether the embattled Afghan president, who returned to power after a fraud-ridden contest on August 20, will be able to finish his five year term, given the challenges he faces: regaining voter trust, assuring the international community of his commitment to fighting corruption, and recovering control of areas currently ruled by Taliban militants (McClatchy). U.S. officials have reportedly given Karzai a list of 40 people it considers "clean enough" to participate in his new cabinet.

Presumably not included on the "clean enough" list is the president's half-brother Ahmed Wali Karzai, who has become a "symbol of cronyism and a lightning rod for criticism of all that is wrong with Karzai's administration" (AP). Alexandra Zavis has a must-read on the plague of corruption in Afghanistan (Los Angeles Times).

The Afghan capital Kabul is in "lockdown" ahead of Karzai's inauguration on Thursday, which has been declared a public holiday in Afghanistan, and analysts expect Taliban attacks on tomorrow's ceremony, which is not open to the public but instead will be held inside the presidential palace and reportedly attended by dignitaries from 42 countries, including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (AFP, AP, McClatchy). Clinton has just landed in Kabul for the inauguration and to meet with top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan Gen. Stanley McChrystal, on her first visit to the country as the U.S.'s top diplomat (AFP, AP, AFP). Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner are also among the 300 foreign dignitaries slated to attend the inauguration (Reuters, Pajhwok).

Poll watching

Two new polls on Afghanistan were released earlier today, the first from Washington Post/ABC finding that while Americans are nearly evenly split on whether Obama should order a smaller or larger number of U.S. troops to Afghanistan, almost half believe Obama's policies are not making much difference in making the U.S. safer from terrorism (Washington Post). The second poll from CBS found that 69 percent of Americans think the war in Afghanistan is going badly, and only 38 percent of those surveyed approve of Obama's performance in handling Afghanistan, down from 58 percent in April (CBS). The full results of the polls can be found here (Washington Post, CBS).

Another new report released today comes from the British aid agency Oxfam, finding that seven of ten Afghans surveyed believe poverty and unemployment are to blame for the country's ongoing conflict (BBC, AFP). The full report, which assesses that after the past three decades of war the "social fabric of the country is fractured," is available from Oxfam (Oxfam).

The trials of coordination

The European Union's training missing in Afghanistan for the country's police force is reportedly understaffed, poorly coordinated with other organizations, lacking in proper security and transportation, and has not yet developed a uniform training program, after two and a half years since it began (New York Times). NATO is expected to start its own police training mission, financed by the U.S., in the coming weeks. And Chuck Liddy profiles "a day in the life" of a Chinook transport helicopter in Afghanistan, a country whose roads are riddled with roadside bombs and at risk for Taliban ambushes, necessitating more travel by air (McClatchy).

Ghost towns

After the Pakistani Army took journalists on a second guided tour of South Waziristan yesterday, veteran correspondents Pam Constable and Sabrina Tavernise have essential reads on the site of the one-month-old Pakistani military offensive in the militant-infested tribal agency on the border with Afghanistan (Washington Post, New York Times). Zahid Hussain reports that commanders believe most of the region's some 10,000 militants have melted into the imposing mountains or fled to neighboring agencies, foreshadowing a long struggle (Wall Street Journal, Times of London). There has been no reporting about civilian casualties caused by the operations, though more than 300,000 Pakistanis have fled the conflict zone.

The Pakistani Army took the cadre of reporters to a school in Ladha, a town in South Waziristan that Taliban militants used as a base, and showed a school that officials claimed was used as a training camp for suicide bombers (AP, Al Jazeera). In Sararogha, a nearby village that is also a militant stronghold, Chris Brummitt reports seeing a school with a room used by the Taliban as a pseudo-courthouse complete with documents detailing a property dispute. The U.S. is reportedly putting pressure on Pakistan to expand its anti-militant offensive into North Waziristan and the Baluchi city of Quetta, believed to be home to the leadership of the Afghan Taliban (Telegraph).

Also in Quetta earlier today, Pakistani police arrested an alleged al Qaeda suspect who was attempting to leave the country to perform Hajj, the Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca (Dawn, Pajhwok). Airport authorities reportedly knew from looking at the man's passport that he was involved with the terrorist group in some way.

Extra virgin?

An olive production factory in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar recently re-opened three years after being damaged by fighting in the country and is expected to produce 10 tons of pickles and 40 tons of olive oil next season (Pajhwok). About a pound of olive oil from this factory reportedly sells for some $5.

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The New America Foundation is seeking a Counterterrorism Fellow to work with Steve Coll and Peter Bergen. For more information visit here. New America is also seeking spring interns for the American Strategy Program and Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative.

With bags of gold

On the heels of yesterday's announcement that Afghanistan is forming a new crime unit to address the pervasive corruption in the country after insistent calls from international leaders that President Hamid Karzai improve governance, a watchdog group has ranked Afghanistan the world's second-most corrupt country, surpassed only by Somalia (AP, Al Jazeera, AP, BBC, Reuters). The full results of the 2009 Corruption Perceptions Index, which measures perceived levels of public sector corruption by drawing on surveys of businesses and experts, are available from Transparency International (TI).

A new British Army field manual reportedly instructs soldiers to buy off potential militant recruits with "bags of gold," though cautions that distributing cash must be done wisely to prevent the distortion of local economies, and also encourages "short-term, labor-intensive" projects in Afghanistan as the "best way" to disrupt extremist recruitment (Times of London, Telegraph). The manual, which will be taught to new officers, says that Army commanders should talk to Taliban militants "with blood on their hands" in order to speed up the end of the conflict.

Step by step

Last night at a banquet in London, U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown offered to host an international summit early next year to discuss a "timetable" for transferring control "district by district" to Afghan security forces (Telegraph, Reuters, Guardian, Times of London, BBC, Financial Times). The head of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said this morning that he expects "substantially more forces" for Afghanistan to be announced "in a few weeks," though he too emphasized that the troop increase is part of a wider plan to hand over power to the Afghans (AFP, Reuters). And Iran's foreign minister said yesterday that a regional approach to help "solve" Afghanistan is needed, citing Lebanon as an example (AFP).

Yesterday's rocket attack on a bazaar northeast of Kabul that resulted in the death of 12 civilians and was presumably aimed at a nearby meeting of local leaders and French military forces highlights insecurity in eastern Afghanistan, according to a provincial police chief (AP, New York Times, AP, Pajhwok). A Taliban spokesman denied responsibility for the attack, which is not uncommon in cases that result in civilian casualties. An account of a battle between coalition forces with attack helicopters and Taliban militants in the eastern Afghan province of Zabul illustrates some of the details of war, and some Afghan interpreters working with British troops claim they are being "abandoned" after being wounded (McClatchy, Telegraph).

Into the caves

The Pakistani Army flew journalists this morning to Sararogha, a key strategic town in South Waziristan, on the one-month mark of the military operations to announce that the army has secured "major town and population centers" and killed more than 550 militants (Reuters, AFP, Geo TV, Pajhwok). Independent verification of claims in the region is all but impossible because reporters and aid workers are barred from the region except on occasional guided trips, and a Pakistani spokesman warned that Taliban fighters have escaped into neighboring tribal agencies. The chief of the Taliban in the Swat Valley, Maulana Fazlullah, told BBC Urdu that he has also safely escaped to Afghanistan (BBC).

A bomb today targeting a local police chief in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's southern Baluchistan province, has killed one and wounded about eight others, demonstrating militants' reach across the country, though the attack has not yet been claimed; Baluchi nationalists and the Taliban are active in the area (BBC, Dawn, AP, Geo TV, Pajhwok). Quetta police later arrested three alleged potential suicide bombers, aged 17 to 27, and recovered a large cache of explosives and weapons (Dawn).

Taliban militants blew up a girls' school in Khyber earlier today, the third such attack in a month, underlining the extremists' continued targeting of education in the country (AFP, Dawn, Pajhwok). Militants have destroyed hundreds of schools, mostly for girls, in recent years. And increasing violence in Punjab, home to Pakistan's biggest bank and generating more than half of the country's economic growth, has investors and businessmen worried (Bloomberg).

Top chef: Afghanistan

An American chef at a base in Kandahar, in Afghanistan's insurgency-ridden south, is a long way from his previous career in the Ritz Carlton in Orlando, FL (ABC News). Though half a world away, soldiers in Kandahar say they feel more at home because of days like "Soul Food Thursdays" in Afghanistan.

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The New America Foundation is seeking a Counterterrorism Fellow to work with Steve Coll and Peter Bergen. For more information visit here. New America is also seeking spring interns for the American Strategy Program and Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative.

Peshawar under attack

The northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar has been hit by militant attacks nearly daily for the last week, killing at least 50 people; early this morning, a pickup truck filled with explosives blasted a police checkpoint in the town of Badh Ber, some seven miles south of Peshawar near a Pakistani air force base, killing four and wounding 30 (AP, Reuters, Dawn, Geo TV, Al Jazeera, BBC). And on Sunday, gunmen targeted pro-government tribal elders in the tribal agency of Bajaur, north of Peshawar, and on the outskirts of the capital of the Northwest Frontier Province (BBC, CNN, Dawn). While the leader from Bajaur was killed in the assault, the mayor from Peshawar, who had raised an anti-Taliban lashkar, escaped unhurt.

On Saturday, a suicide car bomber struck a police checkpoint in Peshawar, killing at least 11, including women, children, and Pakistani policemen (AFP, Dawn, BBC, AP, New York Times). The Taliban, who are automatically suspected in most if not all attacks in northwestern Pakistan, have claimed responsibility for several of the recent strikes, including Friday's bombing at the regional headquarters of Pakistan's intelligence services, the ISI, while denying responsibility for others that killed mostly civilians (CNN, The News). Rather, a Taliban spokesman blamed the attacks targeting civilians on the contracting company formerly known as Blackwater. Taliban tactics like suicide attacks, car bombings, and targeted assassinations mimic the violence used by guerrillas in Iraq (AFP).

Pakistani authorities are growing increasingly worried about collaboration between Punjabi militants and the largely Pashtun Taliban in northwest Pakistan, citing an "assembly line like Ford Motors" for Punjabi recruits interested in fighting in Waziristan, the site of a one month old Pakistani military offensive (Los Angeles Times). And the Obama administration is stepping up the pressure on Pakistan to expand its fight against the Taliban in order to support the expected troop increase in Afghanistan (New York Times). Pakistanis are concerned that the U.S. will alternately add too many troops to Afghanistan, forcing militants to bottleneck over the border and complicating the South Waziristan offensive, or that the U.S. effort will end too soon.

Spook watching

Greg Miller has today's must-read detailing the financial relationship between the CIA and the ISI in Pakistan, reporting that the CIA's payments to the ISI have accounted for as much as one-third of the Pakistani spy agency's budget (Los Angeles Times). Officials say the CIA has also brought ISI operatives to a secret training facility in North Carolina, even as the U.S. is concerned that Pakistan is still supporting certain militant factions in the country. And France's newly retired top investigative judge for counterterrorism, Jean-Louis Bruguière, has claimed in a just-released book that the Pakistani Army until recently ran training camps for Lashkar-e-Taiba with the acceptance of the CIA, and that the LeT has become "part" of the al Qaeda network (Times of London).

And on the political front, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is suffering from two key strikes against him: corruption charges and the perception that he is too close to the United States (Washington Post). Though it is considered unlikely that the Army will stage a coup against him, Pakistani officials and civilians alike have expressed their discontent with the leader, who came to power on a wave of sympathy after Taliban militants assassinated his wife, Benazir Bhutto, in December 2007. And U.S. National Security Adviser Jim Jones reportedly delivered a letter to Zardari from U.S. President Barack Obama urging the Pakistani president to rally the nation's political and military institutions behind the anti-militant campaign (New York Times).

Corruption watching

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday encouraged Afghanistan's embattled President Hamid Karzai to "do better" if he wanted continued U.S. support and urged the formation of a "major crimes tribunal" to serve as an "anti-corruption commission" in the country where bribes and kickbacks are commonplace (Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Reuters). Afghanistan's attorney general, Ishaq Aluko, reportedly has a list of officials and ministers suspected of taking bribes, and has asked Karzai and the Supreme Court to set up a special court to deal with these cases, while a major crime unit has just been formed to address corruption in the country (BBC, AFP, AFP). NATO is also reportedly setting up a small taskforce to gather evidence that will then be turned over to what has been called the "Afghan FBI" (Guardian).

By the end of November, the U.S. plans to begin moving the first of its 700 detainees at Bagram air field to a new $60 million detention facility elsewhere on the base in an attempt to provide better living conditions to detainees (New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal). Officials expect to close the old prison by the end of the year and are planning to institute a system of administrative hearings for inmates to contest their detention with the help of military-appointed counsel, though critics assess the hearings are a "far cry" from an impartial criminal court.

And as Obama weighs whether to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, budget implications are rife: it appears that no matter how many soldiers are sent to the country, each one will cost about $1 million per year (New York Times). Some government estimates suggest that it could also cost up to $50 billion over the next five years to double the size of Afghan security forces.

Security in Afghanistan

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates recently announced the formation of a new task force at the Pentagon to address the threat of roadside bombs in Afghanistan, which are responsible for some 80 percent of U.S. casualties (Washington Post). And late last night, suspected militants fired a handful of rockets at the airport in Kabul, though no casualties have been reported (AP, Pajhwok). Rockets were also fired this morning at a crowded market northeast of the capital city, killing four and wounding 38 in Kapisa province (AP, AFP, AP).

Another threat reportedly comes from within British prisons, which according to a new report by a British think tank, have been the site of imprisoned al Qaeda leaders smuggling out fatwas to their followers (Times of London). The full report is available from the Quilliam Foundation (Quilliam).

Afghanistan's troubled southern Helmand province has been the site of fierce fighting between British troops and Taliban militants, and some 80 suspected extremists have been killed in the last ten days of fighting (Telegraph, Telegraph). The town of Musa Qala has presented a particularly difficult challenge for coalition forces (Times of London). And militants in the adjacent province of Kandahar this morning attacked a police checkpoint, killing at least nine, including three Afghan policemen, while McClatchy reports that the once-calm northern Afghan province of Balkh has a growing Taliban presence (Pajhwok, AP, Reuters, McClatchy).

And in eastern Afghanistan, French and Afghan troops are battling Taliban militants in the Tagab Valley in an offensive named "Operation Avalon" (AFP). The Afghan insurgency is presenting a stark challenge to German troops stationed in the north, as German soldiers are limited by their rules of engagement, which prevent participation in aggressive operations like last week's battle in Kunduz, a region ostensibly under German control, in which Afghan and U.S. forces killed some 130 militants (Wall Street Journal).

The home front

In his first interview with a journalist since Maj. Nidal Hasan's rampage at Ft. Hood, the radical Yemeni cleric with whom Hasan communicated said he "blessed" the shooting, which left 13 dead, because it was against a military target (Washington Post). Anwar al-Aulaqi said however that he did not order or pressure Hasan to harm Americans. Hasan's trial will face many hurdles, as well (New York Times).

And the news late last week that 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and several other accused 9/11 plotters will face trial in the Southern District of New York sparked a variety of reactions and presents a number of legal challenges (Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, New York Times, McClatchy). And some Guantanamo detainees may be headed for a maximum security prison in Illinois (New York Times).

The pill in Afghanistan

A nonprofit organization has taken somewhat taboo topics like birth control and fertility to the mullahs in Afghanistan, seeking buy-in from the religious leaders to help improve maternal health and control a high birthrate in a country whose average per capita earnings per year are $700 (New York Times). In 2009, the sale of birth control pills nearly doubled from January to September.

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Seeking justice

The self-proclaimed "mastermind" and operational commander of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, will reportedly face trial in civilian federal court in the Southern District of New York, along with four other detainees from Guantanamo Bay accused of planning the 9/11 attacks (AP, BBC, Washington Post, Reuters, CNN). Attorney General Eric Holder is expected to make the official announcement later today, and bringing detainees to the United States from Guantanamo Bay is a key step in closing the military prison in Cuba and a test of the Obama administration's broader approach to terrorism (Wall Street Journal).

The physical transfer of the five detainees -- Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Ramzi Binalshibh, Waleed bin Attash, Mustafa Ahmad al-Hawsawi, and Ali Abd al-Aziz Ali -- from Guantanamo to New York is not expected to happen for several more weeks because formal charges still need to be filed against them and because the executive branch must give Congress 45 days notice before transferring a Guantanamo detainee to U.S. soil (AP, Guardian, New York Times). Up until now, the five men were facing prosecution by military commission in Guantanamo Bay, and this may force civilian courts to tackle thorny issues like harsh interrogation techniques, which could render some evidence inadmissible. The Obama administration has reportedly decided to try the accused planner of the 2000 attack on the USS Cole in Yemen in front of a military commission, however, along with several other detainees (New York Times).

The war within

A powerful truck bomb ripped through Peshawar early this morning, killing 10, wounding up to 60 and nearly collapsing the three-story local headquarters of Pakistan's intelligence service, the ISI (AP, Reuters, New York Times, Dawn, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post). The driver of the truck reportedly approached the gate of the ISI building and killed a security guard, before driving at the building itself; Pakistani guards fired on the attacker, but not before he could detonate his explosives, setting off a blast reportedly heard throughout the city (Al Jazeera, Guardian). The attack is the fourth to strike in or around Peshawar in as many days, and hundreds have been killed in attacks across Pakistan in the past month. Elsewhere, a suicide bomber struck a police building in the town of Bakka Khel in Bannu District on the border between Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province and North Waziristan, killing up to six (Times of London, BBC, Wall Street Journal).

The dramatic attacks on Pakistan's security services are seen as a response to Pakistan's ongoing military campaign in the restive tribal region of South Waziristan, where 17 Pakistani soldiers were killed yesterday in the deadliest day Pakistani forces have had since the offensive began about four weeks ago (AFP). Fifteen Pakistani soldiers were killed in direct fighting with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) near Kanigurram, while two were reportedly killed by a suicide bomb near Sararogha to the east.

And while suspicion for the attacks falls naturally on the TTP or the Haqqani network, a major al Qaeda leader, Mustafa Abu Yazid, quickly released an audiotape blaming contractor Blackwater, now known as Xe, for the recent bombings in Peshawar (CNN). Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik told reporters in Islamabad that Blackwater does not operate in Pakistan, but that DynCorp, the security contract that protects U.S. diplomats in the country, has been granted a concession to carry arms (Dawn).

A blast near a base

A suicide car bomber struck a NATO convoy near Camp Phoenix, a major NATO and Afghan base near Kabul, wounding 24 people including four American soldiers as well as several contractors, civilians, and Afghan soldiers, on a road that has become a frequent target of militant attacks (Al Jazeera, AP, BBC, Times of London). And militants at the Bolan Pass south of Quetta attacked a convoy of fuel trucks intended to supply U.S. troops in Afghanistan, killing one driver and destroying five trucks (Dawn).

But all is not doom and gloom, and Sabrina Tavernise has a must-read article describing how small-scale aid has brought huge changes in the Jurm Valley of Badakhshan province, in Afghanistan's northeast (New York Times). Instead of giving aid to the central government and then foreign contractors, officials in Jurm give aid to an elected council of elders, which then distributes the funding to projects approved by local residents.

The politics roundup

Amidst the violence in South Asia, the intensifying political battles inflamed by U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry's objections to a potential troop surge risk further complicating U.S. President Barack Obama's deliberations (Times of London, The Guardian, Christian Science Monitor). An advocate of increased Afghan participation in fighting the Taliban since his time commanding U.S. forces in the country, Eikenberry has reportedly grown increasingly frustrated with the endemic corruption and poor governance on the part of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, while also worrying about high deployment costs and the will of Pakistan to fight the Taliban on their soil (Washington Post).

The controversy over Eikenberry's cables to Washington shines further light on the stark divide between Obama's aides over the war; Obama's views are still unknown, but he is thought to share Eikenberry's concerns that a stronger troop presence might only promote increased Afghan dependence on U.S. forces (McClatchy, New York Times). Financial Times reporter Daniel Dombey quoted an unnamed senior NATO official as saying, "I think it's safe to say that Ambassador Eikenberry and Stanley McChrystal will not be exchanging Christmas cards this year" (Financial Times). McChrystal, the top current U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, was reportedly fuming over Eikenberry's cables.

Into the fray

Defense Secretary Robert Gates stepped forcefully into the debate Thursday, telling reporters that he was "appalled" at the number of leaks coming out about Obama's war deliberations as well as the investigations into the shootings at Ft. Hood (New York Times, Department of Defense). Gates threatened to fire any Department of Defense employee caught leaking information to the press, and instead suggested that "everyone out there ought to just shut up."

Gates also indicated that after Obama's rejection of the four troop options presented to him (10,000, 20,000, 30,000 and 40,000 soldiers, respectively), the president was considering a "compromise" solution that blended the best elements of each proposal (Wall Street Journal, AFP, AP). This comes as White House Budget Director Peter Orszag said that sending 40,000 troops to Afghanistan would cost approximately $40 billion (Bloomberg).

The ongoing deliberations have also increased pressure on Hamid Karzai, as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pushed the Afghan leader to tackle corruption and improve governance in order to meet the needs of the Afghan population (Reuters, BBC). But the troop debate has put pressure on the Obama administration, as critics increasingly fret over the messages sent by Obama's hesitation to deploy more troops without redefining U.S. strategy in Afghanistan (AP, Guardian).

The view from the continent

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has ordered top officials to lobby 10 European nations to contribute more troops to Afghanistan, in the hopes of mustering 5,000 more soldiers and easing the strain on U.S. forces and politicians (Daily Telegraph). NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has said that several countries have privately pledged increased commitments to Afghanistan, but only Turkey and Britain have publicly promised additional forces to a war that is increasingly unpopular in Europe (AP).

And in a bleak landscape Dutch forces seem to be showing some success in securing Uruzgan Province, in Afghanistan's troubled south; Dutch officials say security is spreading slowly, and Dutch troops have patrolled on bicycles in the town of Tarin Kowt to demonstrate their security advances (Los Angeles Times). And German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said that Germany will send 100 additional soldiers to Afghanistan in January (Wall Street Journal).

Flesh of my flesh

Pakistan's National Assembly passed a law yesterday that for the first time regulated human organ transplants in the country (Dawn). The law states that all transplants must be performed willingly, and from an immediate family member if possible. Anyone caught removing organs without proper consent and state approval faces up to 10 years in prison and a fine of one million rupees, about $12,500.

Editor's note: today's AfPak Channel Daily Brief was prepared by Andrew Lebovich, a research associate at the New America Foundation, and Katherine Tiedemann. 

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The political balance

U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Gen. Karl Eikenberry reportedly sent two classified memos to Washington in the past week cautioning against sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan until Afghan President Hamid Karzai shows he is willing to address the pervasive corruption in his government (Washington Post, New York Times). This seismic intervention, coming amidst reports that U.S. President Barack Obama was nearing a decision about the troops question, pits the former American commander in Afghanistan against the current top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who reportedly favors sending around 40,000 new troops to the country and is said to be "fuming" about Gen. Eikenberry's cables (BBC).

At yesterday's two and a half hour meeting in the White House Situation Room with Obama and his national security team, the president reportedly rejected all four of the options presented to him, instead asking for revisions to clarify when and how U.S. forces would turn over responsibility to their Afghan counterparts (AP, Wall Street Journal, Reuters). It was the eighth such meeting in recent months.

The president reportedly felt it necessary after yesterday's meeting to clarify that U.S. commitment to Afghanistan is "not open-ended" and that Kabul must improve governance in the country, according to an administration official (AFP, CNN, Al Jazeera). Helene Cooper assesses, however, that the international community lacks sufficient leverage over Karzai and will not fully pull out of the country (New York Times). And analysts and officials alike lament the continued involvement of warlords in Afghanistan's political system (AP).

Obama could announce his decision after his return from a diplomatic trip to Asia, possibly in the first week of December, though British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he has spoken with Obama and expects an announcement "in a few days" (New York Times, Telegraph, Reuters). NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen asserted yesterday that he expects allies to provide more resources for NATO's training mission in Afghanistan.

Security situation

Tom Coghlan has today's must-read about the Taliban's propaganda efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan, explaining that the extremist group, which once shunned the trappings of modernity, has in recent years embraced the internet, releases glossy magazines and dozens of DVDs, and has even volunteered Taliban-themed ringtones for mobile phones (Times of London). And in Kabul, the "Obama Market" of food and supplies bought or stolen from U.S. military bases is thriving, though local shopkeepers claim most of the goods in their stores are cheap Chinese-made items with just a few American products to lure potential customers (McClatchy).

Taliban fighters are expanding their control of Afghanistan's eastern Nuristan province, and militant leaders claim to have reopened schools and appointed local officials in the area, while some video footage shows Taliban brandishing what appear to be U.S.-made weapons (Al Jazeera). Some 150,000 Afghans have reportedly been forced to flee fighting across the country between the Taliban and coalition forces, particularly the war-ravaged southern provinces of Helmand, Kandahar, and Uruzgan, creating a serious hurdle for the Obama administration's plans to stabilize the country (Wall Street Journal).

Gunned down

A Pakistani public affairs officer working for the Iranian consulate in Pakistan was shot and killed in Peshawar, a town in northwestern Pakistan that has frequently been the site of militant attacks, though no one has yet claimed responsibility for the assassination (BBC, CNN, Dawn). Abul Hasan Jaffri's death comes amid tensions between Pakistan and Iran over Iran's allegations that Islamabad's intelligence agents played a role in a deadly suicide bombing in Iran last month.

Police in Karachi, Pakistan's financial capital, have arrested seven suspected members of the Pakistani Taliban after a shootout yesterday in a middle-class neighborhood (Reuters). The city's police chief claimed the men were planning to target law enforcement and intelligence agencies, and recovered two potential suicide jackets. And 11 suspected militants are on trial in Spain after being arrested in January 2008 on accusations of plotting suicide attacks on Barcelona's metro under the influence of erstwhile Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud (CNN, AP, Al Jazeera).

Voters in Pakistan's Northern Areas headed to the polls to elect an assembly for their district, which has never officially been part of Pakistan proper but instead included in the Pakistani-controlled portion of the disputed Kashmir region (Reuters, Al Jazeera, The Nation, The News). Many of the 1.5 million residents of the cold mountain region of Gilgit-Baltistan oppose integration into Kashmir and instead want to be merged into Pakistan and declared a province, angering longtime rival India.

Here, puppy

After disappearing more than a year ago during a battle between Taliban militants and a coalition patrol in Uruzgan province in Afghanistan, Sabi the black Labrador has been found and returned to the Australians' base in the province (AP). More than 1,500 Australian troops are in Afghanistan and among them are dogs like Sabi used to sniff out roadside bombs; Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has just made a surprise visit to Afghanistan, as well (BBC).

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The latest speculation

U.S. President Barack Obama is reportedly considering four major options for sending more troops to Afghanistan and is expected to discuss them at his eighth meeting with his war council today at 2:30pm, though his decision, after two months of deliberations, is still weeks away (CNN, Reuters, Politico, AP). ABC News has a useful summary of who has attended the series of meetings (ABC). The American public is evenly split over whether Obama is taking too long to decide whether to send more troops, according to new CNN polling released this morning; there is a gender gap, however, as most men say Obama is taking too long and most women willing to give him more time (CNN).

Three of Obama's top advisers -- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen -- are reportedly coalescing around a proposal to send 30,000 or more U.S. soldiers to Afghanistan (New York Times). Officials purportedly said Obama may announce his decision in the week before Thanksgiving, but an announcement in the first week of December "seemed more likely." A 'hybrid' plan of 30 to 35,000 more troops that combines reinforcements for fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan with trainers for Afghan security forces is apparently gaining traction at the Pentagon (Wall Street Journal).

The view from Europe

The war also remains a hot topic across the pond, as Obama is expected to ask NATO allies to contribute 4,000 more troops to Afghanistan to "help break the deadlock," though his request is set to be ignored, reports Michael Evans (Times of London). The British public is becoming increasingly skeptical of involvement in the conflict, as a new poll shows that four of five of those surveyed don't believe U.K. involvement is helping keep the streets of Britain safe (Independent).

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced yesterday that British and NATO forces are planning to hand over responsibility for two districts in the troubled southern Afghan province of Helmand in 2010, and Western commanders are reportedly considering a strategy that would have U.S. and British forces pull out of northern Helmand, including the town of Musa Qala (AP, Times of London). The only remaining Western forces in the province would be assigned to protect the hydroelectric dam at Kajaki. And British troops are helping to train an additional 10,000 Afghan soldiers for the province (Times of London).

The rise and fall

A key part of Western strategies in Afghanistan is convincing Taliban fighters to lay down their arms, and correspondingly, international forces are reportedly planning to spend substantial amounts of money to this end (Telegraph). Afghan President Hamid Karzai is expected to reach out to militants next week in his inaugural address, scheduled for November 19 (AFP). And the chief U.S. inspector for reconstruction aid to Afghanistan said yesterday that the aid process -- which has given some $40 billion to Afghanistan since 2002 -- so far has been "sloppy" (Reuters).

Joshua Partlow has today's must read, in which he describes the ascendancy of the Taliban and the relative decline of al Qaeda in Afghanistan, citing some 400 al Qaeda fighters on either side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, compared with "tens of thousands" of Taliban insurgents (Washington Post). Officials and analysts differ over whether the inversion of the traditional power dynamic between the extremist groups has led to better or worse relations between them, however.

The operation that led to the seizure of 250 tons of ammonium nitrate from a warehouse in Kandahar last weekend also recovered about 2,000 devices like triggers and timers, and the bomb-making material is used in the overwhelming majority of roadside bombs in Afghanistan (AP, New York Times). The seizure comes on the heels of a number of initiatives to keep the fertilizer out of Taliban hands; before this month, Afghan and NATO officials could only take ammonium nitrate if it was clearly associated with insurgent activity, and now they can take it regardless, though they are required to compensate the farmers.

U.S. military divers have found the body of one of the two U.S. soldiers who apparently drowned last week attempting to recover supplies that were mistakenly airdropped into a river in Badghis province (AP, Bloomberg, New York Times, AFP). Local Taliban militants attacked the joint Afghan-American rescue mission for the soldiers, causing the U.S. to call in an air strike, which killed at least eight Afghans, and NATO is investigating whether those deaths were caused by a "friendly fire" strike.

Ongoing operations

The civilian death toll from yesterday's car bombing in a crowded market in Charsadda, a town in northwestern Pakistan a short distance from Peshawar, has risen to 34 and prompted a three-day general strike to protest the lack of proper security in the area (New York Times, BBC, Bloomberg, McClatchy). Three blasts in the past four days near Peshawar have killed at least 40 people, and a six-member team has been formed to investigate the attack at Charsadda (Washington Post, Geo TV). The attack has not been claimed, which is unsurprising given the number of civilian casualties.

The attack at Charsadda came as the Pakistani military's anti-Taliban offensive in South Waziristan continues and the Army claims it now has control of 80 percent of the Mehsud areas in the tribal region and has killed nine militants in the last day (The News, BBC, Dawn). Taliban militants attacked an outpost in Mohmand agency earlier today and killed two paramilitary soldiers, prompting helicopter gunships to shell Taliban hideouts, killing at least ten (AP). And a land mine in Mohmand killed eight Pakistani soldiers just moments ago (AFP). Information from the region is virtually impossibly to verify because journalists and aid workers are not allowed to enter the battle zone alone.

Lagging Lollywood

Pakistan's once-vibrant Lahore-based film industry is struggling, a victim of DVR, cable television, the Islamization of Pakistani society, and finally, DVD piracy (Los Angeles Times). In 1985, more than 1,000 movie theaters were open across the country, while today there are 120 still in business.

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