Karachi under fire
Asuicide bomber on a motorcycle rammed into a bus full of Shia Muslimsnear a furniture market en route to a religious procession in thesouthern Pakistani port city of Karachi earlier this morning, killingat least 12 and wounding 55, after weeks of deadly political violenceand ethnic tension in the commercial capital (BBC, AJE, AP, AFP, Dawn, Bloomberg, Geo).Another bomb blast occurred an hour later at the Jinnah Hospital inKarachi, where many of the injured from the first attack had beentaken, killing at least ten (Geo, AP, Dawn).There have been no claims of responsibility yet, but tensions betweenthe city's Sunni majority and Shias have been high since a blasttargeting a Shia procession inDecember killed more than 40 ( AP).
The center of gravity
In
an unusually public series of pronouncements, U.S., NATO, and Afghan
military officials have announced that the largest joint military
offensive since 2001 will soon be underway, targeting Marjah, a Taliban-held
town in the volatile southern province of Helmand, the
surrounding district of which is home to around 125,000 people and
between 600 and 1,700 Taliban and foreign fighters (NYT, WSJ, FT, Pajhwok, ABC, AP, AJE).
Though the start date of the operations is not disclosed for security
reasons, officials have been hinting about it for months, which has an
important benefit: civilians given warning may flee the area, but so
might Taliban fighters, to regroup elsewhere, but if the Taliban choose
flight over fight, the government could have the chance to tout a
"relatively easy win." However, the Taliban could also dig in and
fortify their defenses of the town, and more than 30 militants were
reportedly killed in Helmand in joint operations yesterday (Pajhwok).
A bomb blast
Three
U.S. soldiers who were in Pakistan as part of a small, low-profile unit
that trains members of the Pakistani Frontier Corps were killed earlier
this morning when a remote-control roadside bomb exploded near a girls'
school celebrating its opening in the tribal area of Lower Dir (NYT, AP, AFP, Reuters, BBC, Dawn, Geo, Islamabad Embassy statement).
At least seven others, including four schoolgirls and a Frontier Corps
soldier, were also killed in the blast, and around 70 children and a
few journalists were wounded; the Pakistani Army last year declared Dir
free of the Taliban, and this is one of the deadliest attacks on
Americans in Pakistan in decades (ABC).
The Pakistani Taliban took responsibility for the attack and claimed
those Americans killed were employees of the security contracting firm
Blackwater (AFP).
Violence in Pakistan
Fierce
fighting between the Pakistani military, backed by helicopter gunships
and fighter jets, and Taliban militants continues in the northwestern
Pakistani tribal agency of Bajaur, the site of a major military
offensive in 2008 that had pushed the Taliban from their strongholds,
and troops are reportedly advancing on the militants' main training
area in Damadola (BBC, AP, Dawn, AFP, The News).
The ongoing clashes demonstrate the resiliency of the militant movement
in Pakistan's tribal regions; Pakistani authorities have imposed a
curfew on several towns in Bajaur, and thousands of local residents
have reportedly fled the area.
Speculation
Rumors
that the current chief of the Pakistani Taliban died of wounds
sustained in an alleged U.S. drone strike in mid-January resurfaced
yesterday after a state-run Pakistani television station aired reports
that he was killed, and two Obama administration officials told the New York Times and the Washington Post they were at least 90 percent certain Hakimullah Mehsud had died (Wash Post, NYT, The News, Daily Times, WSJ, AP, McClatchy).
The Pakistani channel also claimed Hakimullah had been taken to the
tribal agency of Orakzai and buried several days ago in the village of
Tajaka.
Secret diplomacy
The
outgoing chief of the U.N. mission in Afghanistan, diplomat Kai Eide,
reportedly met with members of the Afghan Taliban's Quetta shura leadership council on January 8 in Dubai, at the request of the militant leaders (Reuters, FT, Guardian, WSJ, AFP, McClatchy, BBC).
Though reconciliation is a key part of the U.S. and Afghan governments'
strategies for the country, it is unknown what was accomplished at the
Dubai meeting or which Taliban envoys attended.
A London bridge
As
today's much-heralded international summit on Afghanistan in London
kicked off earlier today, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned,
"By the middle of next year, we have to turn the tide," as his co-host
Afghan President Hamid Karzai cautioned that Kabul will need
international support for up to 15 years (NYT, AFP, WSJ, BBC, Guardian, FT, BBC, Tel).
As expected, Karzai laid out the bones of his plan for reconciling with
Taliban militants, saying he would hold a traditional loya jirga
this spring, the first major tribal meeting in eight years, and called
on Saudi Arabia to play a role in mediation, which Pakistan hopes to do
as well (Reuters, BBC, Wash Post, CNN, Pajhwok, AJE, Guardian). A second major gathering is being planned in Kabul in a few months.

Wonk Watch: The January issue of West Point's CTC Sentinel
is full of valuable articles, including an examination of Pakistan's
adaptation to counterinsurgency by New America Foundation research
fellow Sameer Lalwani, and a look at the Taliban presence in Karachi by
Imtiaz Ali (CTC-pdf).
The conference buzz
Nearly
all the news about Afghanistan relates to tomorrow's international
conference in London and plans for reconciling or reintegrating Taliban
fighters with the Afghan government; five former Taliban officials were
just removed from a U.N. 'blacklist' after Russia stopped blocking the
move, while donor countries are expected to commit $100 million a year
for five years toward a 'reintegration' fund (AFP, Guardian, Wash Post, The News, NYT, AJE, Pajhwok, LAT, BBC).
The Afghan finance minister brought up the idea of integrating Taliban
officials across all levels of the government and said the militant
group is ready to negotiate, a claim quickly denied by a Taliban
spokesman (FT, Bloomberg).