
In December 2010, frustrated, irate, and depressed at the uproar around the case of Aasia Bibi and the reticence of the Pakistani government in amending the Blasphemy Laws that had condemned her to death, I interviewed Pakistan's Federal Minister for Minorities and the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) national assembly member Shahbaz Bhatti on the telephone. Bhatti, the man responsible for protecting Pakistan's minority groups, told me, "Many people are facing death threats and problems. They're in prison and are being killed extra-judicially. This law is being misused." Bhatti had just been named by President Zardari as the head of a committee to discuss the country's blasphemy laws. "They have their own opinion and they are free to express it, we have our own," Bhatti calmly replied to a query about the stance taken by the religious right-wing against amending the Blasphemy Laws, or pardoning Bibi.
Perhaps Bhatti himself didn't know that three months later that "right" would take the shape of an assassin's bullets that claimed his life outside his Islamabad residence.
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Editor's note: This is Part I of a two-part seriesfocusing on aid provision in conflict zones, with tomorrow's edition to focuson Afghanistan.
Although the White House was cautiously optimistic in itsrecent strategy review on Afghanistan, even for seasoned AfPak watchers, itcan be difficult to discern exactly what the U.S. strategy istowards Afghanistan. The sound bite summary "clear, hold, build" may besimplistic, but it still offers a useful starting place to evaluate U.S. andNATO efforts. The "clear" and "hold" represent the straightforward ideas (intheory if not execution) of taking and holding ground, operations with whichmilitaries are well-acquainted. The real issue, and the key to success orfailure, is defining what "build" really means, and examining how the United States andNATO are "building" in Afghanistan.
While many factors in Afghanistan (and Pakistan, for thatmatter) are unique, in a larger sense, the challenges faced there are the sameissues, with new faces, that the United States has been long been struggling with inother countries. The U.S. government clearly hopes to "build" the Afghangovernment and military up to the point that it will take the lead in battlingthe Taliban. For decades now, in countries around the world, the tool mostfrequently called on to "build" countries is aid. Sometimes aid comes in theform of humanitarian, short-term assistance, i.e. emergency food, medicine,water, and shelter, aimed at stabilizing crisis situations. In other cases, aidcomes in the form of "official development assistance" or ODA, most often adirect cash transfer from a donor government or donor institution to arecipient country, usually in the form of grants or low-interest loans, andaimed at promoting long-term growth by developing infrastructure, education,and more. In the case of Afghanistan (and Pakistan), aid to the region hasconsisted of a mixture of both humanitarian and strategic (ODA) aid.
MASSOUD HOSSAINI/AFP/Getty Images

With Vice President Joseph Biden now in Pakistan and several top Pakistani officials in Washington for Richard Holbrooke's memorial service this week, there's an opportunity for the Obama administration to address a long-standing weakness of its policy in the region -- the absence of a clear plan to leverage U.S. resources to support political and economic reforms in Pakistan. Certainly, the Obama administration has, in just two years, increased resources for both Pakistan and Afghanistan, but its current strategy suffers from two basic and encompassing flaws.
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Salmaan Taseer's alleged murderer is a twenty-six-year-old security guard, named Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri. Qadri was hired by the Punjab Constabulary in 2003 as an 18-year-old recruit. In 2008, he joined the "Elite Force," where Punjab's best cops end up, and was working for this elite force on the security detail for the governor of Punjab when he killed Taseer. His motivation was allegedly Taseer's vocal opposition to the provisions of the Pakistan Penal Code that deal with blasphemy.
Given the infamy of these legal provisions, the discussion about Taseer's assassination is going to be dominated by an examination of how Pakistan treats blasphemy. That is a long-needed national discussion, and in his death, it may be that Taseer will have stimulated an honest and serious national introspection about how the country treats its minorities.
Unfortunately, what is more likely is that Taseer's death will not only not stimulate a more serious examination of how the Pakistani state deals with the highly toxic issues of blasphemy, but it may help mute the already nervous voices within the thin sliver of Pakistani society that seek to amend these kinds of legal provisions.
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ISLAMABAD — The assassination of the governor of Punjab, Pakistan's most politically powerful province, Salman Taseer earlier this morning provides the latest example of how religious intolerance, coupled with contentious laws, can wreak havoc on human lives. If the confession of the killer -- Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri -- is any indication, then Pakistan's controversial blasphemy laws have claimed another life, in addition to the more than 30 people accused of blasphemy and later killed by angry mobs or individuals over the last quarter-century.
Qadri, 26, according to Interior Minister Rehman Malik, told police he killed Taseer "because he had called the blasphemy law a black law." Reportedly a member of an elite police force, Qadri was part of the security detail deployed to protect Taseer in Islamabad. The governor was on his way to an upscale market for a cup of coffee near his Islamabad residence when he was killed.
Taseer's assassination stunned Pakistanis but surprised none; by openly criticizing the country's controversial blasphemy laws, Taseer also had upset religious groups, including even mainstream religiopolitical parties. "I was under huge pressure sure 2 cow down b4 rightest pressure on blasphemy. Refused. Even if I'm the last man standing," was one of Taseer's recent tweets on the laws, imposed in the late 1970s by former dictator General Zia ul-Haq, whose Islamist legacy continues to haunt Pakistan today.
FAROOQ NAEEM/AFP/Getty Images

If there was a protagonist in the WikiLeaks cables released last week, it would be a petite, blond, Arkansas-born career diplomat, Anne Patterson, who until recently had been the U.S ambassador to Pakistan.
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Veteran mujahedin and current no. 2 insurgent leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar gave a rare and extensive interview to German TV. AAN's Senior Analyst Thomas Ruttig thinks that he was trying a walk on the tightrope, responding to the opened doors for "reconciliation" while projecting that he is not too soft on the U.S. and Kabul's offers and strictly follows Islamic principles. And he asks: Why now and why to Germans?
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Today at Friday prayers, a bomb detonated in a mosque in Darra Adam Khel, killing more than 66 worshippers. It was the work of, by most accounts, a suicide bomber. In the Pakistani press and on the two dozen news channels that feed us a constant and unrelenting stream of what is happening in the country, the total number of people in the mosque at the time of the attack was anywhere between 100 and 500. The roof either collapsed, or did not collapse. There were anywhere between 50 and 200 injured. Pakistani officials use the figure of 30,000 Pakistani victims of terrorism routinely. Three years since the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) launched this war into a different, much bloodier dimension, the official response to this mayhem seems only to show Pakistan still has no counter-terrorism strategy. As always, the only certainties in the aftermath of terror in Pakistan were two things. First, Pakistani leaders would fall over themselves to repeat platitudes about terrorism in Pakistan and how very strongly they condemn this kind of thing. Second, this will all happen again, very soon.
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Despite deepening security threats from both the Taliban and other Pakistan-based proxies operating against Indian personnel and institutions in Afghanistan, thus far India has remained committed to staying in Afghanistan. India has its own concerns about the ultimate settlement in Afghanistan given that such a political settlement will likely come about through some sort of a twinned process of reconciliation and reintegration of former Taliban fighters back into Afghanistan's political landscape.
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Even as the recently released tell-all Obama's Wars by Bob Woodward raises fresh doubts about the U.S.-Pakistan relationship and will likely stoke mistrust in the United States about Pakistan as a partner against the Afghan Taliban, a series of stories that paint the Pakistani army in a negative light will undoubtedly contribute to the tensions. These events occur against the backdrop of heightened U.S. drone activity inside Pakistan's border region and at least two reported NATO helicopter attacks on Pakistani soil. How the Pakistani army sees these events and addresses the ensuing challenges will have enormous impacts on the future trajectory of South Asia, as well as the direction of Pakistan's fragile democracy.
First, there was the reported kidnapping of The News journalist Umar Cheema and the standard operating procedures of Pakistani intelligence agencies used to humiliate and torture him, according to his detailed account of the incident. Other than denials, there does not appear to be a clear or detailed explanation from the government or the Inter Services Intelligence directorate, Pakistan's top spy agency, of who did this, nor any indication from the government that a rapid and credible public inquiry is underway. In the absence of such actions, rumors will fly and allegations will be made that will undermine the state and its agencies.
Second, there has been a new viral video released on the Internet purporting to be a record of extrajudicial killing of blindfolded Pashtun captives in civilian clothes by Urdu-speaking (that is, non-Pashtun) soldiers in army uniforms and carrying standard army weapons. The presence of a senior person identified in the soundtrack as "Tanveer Sahib" may implicate an officer in this incident. According to the New York Times, the Pakistani military initially dismissed the video as a forgery. The Times later reported that the army had investigated the incident, found it to be genuine, and promised to act against the perpetrators.
Fairly or not, this video and other negative stories about the army's operations and its behind-the-scenes role in Pakistani politics will likely be seen within Pakistan as coordinated and hostile actions from outside Pakistan to put pressure on the Pakistan army to bend to U.S. demands on a number of fronts. The army's readiness to move against the elements involved in these killings speaks to its new and informed leadership. Similar reports of extrajudicial killings in East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, in 1971 were brushed aside by the army at that time. They lost the hearts and minds of the local population, fuelled an insurgency, and created a refugee stream into India that drew that country into invading East Pakistan to help create Bangladesh. By contrast, in June 1992, an incident in Sindh province earlier described by the army in Sindh as an "encounter" with local robbers was openly investigated by the army high command, following a BBC report of killings by an army major as a favor to a local landlord. The major was court-martialed and sentenced to death. Senior officers who failed to investigate the incident adequately and participated in covering it up were removed or dismissed to much public acclaim. The army's stock went up in the public eye.
The current army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, will need to confront this latest allegation head-on and quickly rather than let it simmer and adversely affect public support for the military as well as morale inside the institution. If a "rogue officer" was at work giving his troops an unlawful command to murder civilian prisoners, then the army needs to clear it up in a manner that will identify and bring to court the culprits and help educate the rest of its officers and troops against similar actions. At a time when the civilian government is under stress and economic and political problems have besieged it, it is important that the army is seen as a stable entity working with the government for the common good.
General Kayani also faces a challenge on the border from the U.S. and NATO. A first incursion into Pakistan seemed to have been handled quickly by him and Adm. Mike Mullen to reduce unhappiness on the Pakistan side. They spoke and decided not to add to the public rhetoric. But now an additional incident in Kurram involving a NATO helicopter attack that reportedly killed three soldiers of the Frontier Corps, the paramilitary force that patrols the tribal areas, has led to the closing of the border to NATO supplies for Afghanistan and a public rebuke from the government of Pakistan.
This situation could easily careen out of control. The Obama administration, which is unhappy with what it perceives as Pakistan's lack of action against anti-American militants, is seriously miscalculating if it is using such tactics to pressure Pakistan to launch operations against its will. Better to argue your case behind closed doors, as allies should -- or risk a public split. Similarly, Pakistan risks overestimating its leverage over the United States and NATO by shutting down the coalition's supply routes across the Durand Line. If anything, this embargo will accelerate the U.S. drive to diversify its logistics chain -- while taking money out of Pakistanis' pockets.
There is some positive news. On Thursday, Kayani announced a fresh list of newly promoted three-star generals, completing his team of senior officers who will outlast his own new three-year term at the helm of the army. By all accounts, he has chosen tried and tested professionals and superseded some Musharraf loyalists. As with the lieutenant generals promoted in April, he has by and large selected apolitical and professional soldiers with a broad, mature view of the world and of Pakistan's place in it. Many of them have topped their classes at the military academy, winning the Sword of Honour, or have attended advanced military courses abroad, as has Kayani. Here's hoping they get their chance to prove that Pakistani's military can be a force for stability in South Asia, and a voice for the rule of law at home.
Shuja Nawaz is director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council and author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within and Pakistan in the Danger Zone: A Tenuous U.S.-Pakistan Relationship.
RIZWAN TABASSUM/AFP/Getty Images
Late last week, Afghan President Hamid Karzai, General David Petraeus, and American AfPak special envoy Richard Holbrook descended on Islamabad to jointly think a way out of the Afghan imbroglio.
Officials touted their meetings with Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, ISI officials and civilian Pakistani leaders as routine brainstorming sessions. Yet Afghanistan's surge in violence and its extremely low turnout in the Afghan parliamentary election two days later on Saturday, betray the bitter truth: the region is in crisis. Afghans are fear-stricken, the American top brass is frustrated by its failure in showcasing any tangible success back home, Karzai is resentful of Washington's high-handed approach and Pakistan itself is struggling with the consequences of an over-bearing counter-insurgency campaign, complicated by recent devastating floods. Not only do the stakeholders feel they're getting nowhere -- they feel like they're moving deeper into chaos.
SUKKUR, SINDH PROVINCE -- In the ad-hoc child malnutrition facility at the Railway Hospital in Sukkur, mothers cradle and nurse their toddlers, all emaciated and weakened. A row of beds runs either side of the ward in the brown and gray-painted Raj-era hospital.
Three year-old Zamina was malnourished before the floods hit, but the flight from the family farm in Thulla to this heaving city in northern Sindh worsened the tiny girl's condition considerably, says Dr Sakina Jafri, pausing to speak as she moved from bed to bed.
"With the threat of disease all around, young children are most prone," she said. "And when they are so young and are malnourished, it only adds to that level of vulnerability."
UNICEF Director Anthony Lake says that almost 9 million children are at risk of disease, an alarm call rung out in tandem with World Food Program head Josette Sheeran's warning of a second wave of disaster looming even as flood waters slowly recede.
Authorities have also struggled to cope with a growing number of cases of severe diarrhea and malaria caused by dirty water that offers a perfect breeding ground for insects and disease. More than 500,000 cases of acute diarrhea and nearly 95,000 cases of suspected malaria have been treated since the floods first hit, the U.N.'s World Health Organization said Tuesday.
The big fear is a cholera outbreak, given that little or no capacity is in place to deal with what could be a devastating epidemic. Cases have been reported in Sindh province in recent days, but the Pakistani government has not yet officially announced anything. Cholera can kill within 48 hours if not treated, and is highly contagious. Once identified it can be treated quickly, usually with basic rehydration treatments.
Over 6 million people have been displaced by the floods, with over 3.5 million of these in Sindh alone. 1.2 million homes have been damaged or destroyed -- five times as many as the Haiti earthquake. While some of the homeless are in camps set up by the military and NGOs, the majority are pitching down wherever possible, constructing ad-hoc shelters and often sheltering under beds or blankets in the baking heat.
The Sindh Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said that there were almost 900,000 people in camps and spontaneous settlements in the province as of 28 August, figures that may not be inclusive of more recent displacement. In any case, sanitation facilities and clean water are absent from most camps, compounding an already parlous public health environment and laying the ground for the spread of disease. Even as the waters in Punjab and the north of Pakistan, towns and cities in Sindh remain at risk, with evacuation orders issued for 400,000 people in Mehar and surrounding areas.
Hunger is a problem now and emergency rations are needed for adults and children, as well as therapeutic feeding needed for severely affected young children such as Zamina.
It is a problem for the government as well, with implications for the country's economy. After briefing the country's cabinet, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani last week worried aloud about food insecurity due to the damage to agriculture, and follow-on impact on social welfare.
"The floods have inflicted damage to the economy which may, by some estimates, reach $43 billion (£27.9 billion), while affecting 30 percent of all agricultural land," he said. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy, with cotton the main cash crop. Textiles, which are cotton-dependent, are the country's biggest export. The next wheat harvest is at risk after the floods destroyed more than 500,000 tons of seed stocks in Asia's third-largest wheat producer.
Hunger and malnutrition are major issues now, but food shortages will be a problem in the near future as well. With millions of acres of cultivable land under water, it is uncertain to what extent such terrain can be readied for the next planting season, which should start in October, or if people will be able to return home in time. With so many draught animals drowned in the river, it will be difficult for farmers to prepare the ground, which will be covered in heavy silt.
Zamina's mother Zeina knows this, her head bowed and her words translated through Dr Sakina. She nurses her youngest, an eight-month old boy, while a nurse feeds Zamina.
Life will be immensely-difficult for her and millions more families in the same position from now on. "I have nine children", she says. "My husband and the other children are in a camp. What will we do now? We just don't know," she laments.
Simon Simon Roughneen is an Irish journalist currently based in southeast Asia; he has previously reported from conflict zones in the Africa, the Middle East, and Europe. His website is www.simonroughneen.com.
As soon as Pakistan's heartland became catastrophically inundated by flood waters, political elites in Pakistan and the West began drawing on a familiar well of anxieties about Pakistani society -- most of all, that extremist organizations were best positioned to exploit the situation to their advantage. Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari joined the chorus, as did U.S. Senator John Kerry, who directly linked Pakistan's humanitarian needs with its -- and America's -- national security. The western world responded to those alarms with massive donations of money, nearly $1 billion in total.
But the biggest problem facing Pakistan as it tries to recover from the floods isn't extremist groups, or a lack of money to combat them: It's the lack of effective governance on the local level. Humanitarian assistance that refuses to seriously reckon with local facts won't be of much use to Pakistanis.
Before anything else, the direness of much of Pakistani life requires acknowledgement. Most of the affected areas were catastrophes long before the floods arrived: their major socio-economic indicators -- the literacy rate, school enrollment rate, and child mortality rate -- were already abysmal. The poverty in some parts of southern Punjab, for example, stood at 55 percent before the floods.
The condition of women in the region has always been especially bad. The International Fund for Agricultural Development's July 2010 study on southern Punjab mentions that women of the area are considerably more vulnerable to poverty than men. The report adds that an estimated 2.6 million women and girls are essentially reduced to serfdom, employed as cotton pickers on the cotton farms during the harvesting season between September and December.
Indeed, patterns of land holding in much of Pakistan are basically feudal. Five percent of Pakistani agricultural households own 64 percent of the farmland. Landless laborers are destined for lives of penury and servitude. In short, Pakistani society has a long road to travel in pursuing economic development; humanitarian assistance should show humility in that regard.
The other major problem is that Pakistan's governmental institutions are ill-suited to respond to problems in rural provinces. It should not be a surprise that the government's flood management response has shown such shoddy coordination between the provincial Punjab capital of Lahore and the local elected councils in hard-hit areas. The elected local bodies were empowered under the rule of General Musharraf in a gesture of political expediency; they have since succumbed to indolence and corruption. So in spite of the presence of several early warning mechanisms at the provincial as well as federal level, no one was prepared to cope with the floods.
Philanthropists should be especially concerned by the lack of accountability of Pakistani institutions. Palagummi Sainath, in his classic book Everybody Loves a Good Drought, documented how catastrophes in India often became opportunities for the state bureaucracy to fleece public money. The situation in Pakistan is likely no different.
Pakistan's rehabilitation and reconstructions will take years -- but the international community ought to look at it as an opportunity to help reform Pakistan from the ground-up. Unfortunately, the world squandered the same opportunity in the aftermath of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. Now, instead of offering just money to Pakistan's central government, donors should consider lending technical assistance to local institutions, while also sharing best practices that the development sector has implemented elsewhere. This disaster could help many Pakistanis break free from their shackles; indeed, that's the only way for the country to enjoy a sustainable, long-term recovery.
Luv Puri is a Fulbright scholar and has reported from South Asia for more than a decade.
What might campaigning and election preparation look like in this province
about 34 days before parliamentary election?, I asked myself when I was about
to travel to Paktika's provincial capital Sharana. The short answer is: grim -
and that despite many actors - international, electoral or candidates - trying
their best to make this undertaking somehow workable and less fraudulent then
past year.
The large dilemma in Paktika - as in many places in the Afghan south and south
east - is the question on whether to open a larger number of polling centers on
election day, which cannot be observed and thereby are highly prone for fraud,
or whether to keep a considerable number of polling centers closed, creating
less accessibility for voters and admitting that insecurity is widespread. In
the 2009 presidential and provincial council elections there were 265 polling
centers (for an estimated population of 400,000). The number has this year been
reduced to 190 due to insecurity (and the linked level of fraud). Any considerable
lesser number would be seen as loss of face for governmental authorities.
According to the provincial head of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC),
after the 2009 election, 1555 of its staff members were blacklisted in
Paktika alone due to allegations of fraud. Hence, hiring around 3000 qualified
and trustable electoral staff, with the goal to have at least 10 per cent
females, over the next weeks in districts heavily marked by the insurgency is
possibly the worst job one can imagine. Some staff do not want to work in their
own district because they fear to become known and hence more vulnerable to
attacks by the Taleban. By consequence, in some districts staff has to be hired
from the bordering provinces of Khost or Logar.
Meeting candidates is quite difficult in Sharana, not because they are all busy
campaigning in the districts - no, because most of them are simply not there.
Out of 22 candidates (one of lowest numbers in the country), six were in the
province during my visit, the rest staying in Kabul mainly due to security
concerns. Only two of them were said to be campaigning in the safer districts.
This already tells you loads about the possible (and in certain cases wanted)
presence of MPs in their constituency once they are actually in parliament.
Out of the five female candidates, one is said to be campaigning in Paktika,
taking high risks. The others are in Kabul - which does not mean that they are
inactive or unpopular. Their campaigns in the provinces are run by males and
all their candidate's agents are male, since finding female campaign staff is
almost impossible. As is finding female FEFA observers for the provinces: as
the FEFA provincial representatives stated, having one or two female FEFA
observers on election day for the whole province is probably realistic. So, one
asks oneself what will happen in the 42 per cent of the polling stations that
are meant to serve female voters. As during the last elections, many of
the female votes are going to be handed in by male heads of the family anyhow.
As for the other present candidates, there is the mix of powerful incumbents
likely to succeed, of sons of current MPs, of those with strong power basis in
Paktika and/or Kabul and of unknowns (a deeper analysis of the Paktika
candidates will follow on this blog) for the four Paktika seats in the Wolesi
Jirga, one of them female. The anti-international, especially anti-US and
anti-UK, rhetoric and mistrust rings high. One of the candidates I spoke
to,says he is going to build ‘bridges between the Taleban and the Government' -
having had a post in provincial government under the Taliban regime, he is of
course perfectly fitted to do so. The slogan on his visiting card is ‘Serving
weak families and bringing back prisoners who did not commit a crime -- which
makes you think on how current reintegration efforts are aiding his campaign.
In general, the level of acute or perceived threats by the Taleban to
candidates seems high -- and it remains to be seen what general level of
intimidation this creates on election day.
Being in a place for three days (with limited chances to move around), it is of
course hard to get a sense of the general motivation to vote in these
elections. But my feeling is that it is very low. And if this is coupled with a
high risk: who is willing to go out and vote? Rumors and stories of empty
polling centers, bought voter cards and stuffed ballot boxes last year do not
make for a good incentive either.
So who will observe these elections in Paktika - giving you at least a sense of
what happens on election day and in the crucial days thereafter? In Sharana,
the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, through local partners, organizes observation
training for candidate agents these days, who on election day can go into
polling centers and observe the process for their candidate. There is no limit
to the number of agents a candidate can register, making it again easier for
those with power and money to enlist high numbers of them and increase their
influence inside the polling centers. In the different sessions held, there was
a total of 55 agents - and the IEC did not estimate a much higher number to be
registered. However, some candidates at least claimed that they will have over
100 agents.
FEFA stated it would try to find one national observer for every polling
center. As for international observers, there were a handful in 2009, being
limited to the provincial capital. For the presence of national and
international observers to make sense this time, the question of movement
beyond the provincial capital is central - and in case of the internationals
this is unrealistic. Also, it would be important that observers stay days after
polling day observing the transfer of sensitive material and salaries for
electoral staff as well (it took some ballot boxes ten days to be transferred
last year, and the lack of payment due to corruption and difficulties of
transportation has been a huge issue last year).
And let us not forget about the Electoral Complains Commission: the three ECC
commissioners for Paktika were sitting in one room with toshaks but no
desks, no computers and no internet. They said they air radio messages about
their role and presence and people come to them with complaints. But since they
do not have any means to note, file and transmit them properly to Kabul, they
currently do not do so. Once a week they can check their mails at the IEC but
beyond that, there is no exchange with that body.
In general, many people I spoke to saw weak and corrupt governance alongside
the mistrust of NATOs efforts as the main reason for the growing support of the
insurgency. Flying out, there was the nagging question of what sense it makes
to hold parliamentary elections in Paktika on 18 September - and what they will
actually change in the lives of people. While there is an inclination to give a
pessimistic answer, I still tell myself that it is too early to judge - if not
at least out of deep respect for those voting, supporting and running in
Paktika.
Tina Blohm is head of the Kabul office of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, a German political foundation. All views expressed in this blog are her own. This article was originally published by the Afghan Analysts Network.
1) The Pakistani army has taken a prominent role in both rescue and relief operations in response to the recent flood crisis, and its efforts seem to have been viewed in a much more positive light than the civilian government's response. How are people in Pakistan talking about the relief effort? Do you think the comparatively more positive views of the army's response to crisis will alter the military's relationship with the civilian government?
The first thing that needs to be said about this is that the very nature of the response almost necessitates a prominent role for the military. If you need helicopters to deliver food and water, who are you going to go to, the local civil administration or the military? If you need boats to rescue stranded people, who are you going to go to, fishermen or the navy? This needs to be understood because to the extent that this is purely a logistical crisis, the military almost has an "unfair" advantage in that it has the better toolbox for the immediate aftermath.
AFP/Getty Images
Pakistan's super flood is unparalleled with any other the country has seen in the last 120 years, claiming the lives of nearly 1,500 Pakistanis and destroying over half of the country's cash crops, wiping out about half a million small farmers financially. The Indus river torrents continue to maroon hundreds of villages in the south of the country, forcing hundreds of thousands to flee from their homes, displacing several million within the last three weeks alone. It is a crisis far greater than the one Pakistan faced last year after its army moved against Taliban militants, which resulted in the displacement of over two million in the Swat region.
Ironically, people here in the north had been praying for extra rains until about three weeks ago. Today, most are praying for an end to rain in the north and a safe passage through the next deluge expected in the coming days.
Before the devastation in southern towns, flood waters were already wreaking havoc in the north along the Indus and Kabul River. The unusually heavy monsoon rains and the westerly winds submerged entire villages in water, affecting the major thorough fairs such as the M1, the expressway that connects the capital Islamabad with Peshawar. Today the median of the highway is home to hundreds, if not thousands, of impoverished families who have set up tents after fleeing from the floods.
The Kabul River delta, once famous for its fertility, is now beset by flooding. The vast swathes of villages in Peshawar's vicinity are at the mercy of the swollen Kabul River is overflowing with flood waters.
ANARAS KHAN/AFP/Getty Images
The desperate plight of over 20 million Pakistani citizens displaced and dispossessed by the most ferocious flooding in the history of the young state is heartbreaking. Nature is extracting a cruel price on a population already racked by debilitating poverty and a brutal insurgency.
But at the same time, too little attention is being paid to the violent drama being played out in Pakistan's largest city, Karachi. The crippling violence of political party gangsterism between Karachi's two dominant parties - the Awami National Party (ANP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) - is alarming, especially as the parties align with organized criminal groups and become increasingly indistinguishable from them. Unlike the flooding, this crisis was avoidable and man-made.
One of the three largest cities in the world, Karachi has a multi-ethnic population of 17 million people. From an American perspective, it also happens to be the hub for importing life-saving relief supplies as well as material for the U.S. and NATO war effort in Afghanistan.
So it is mindboggling that at this juncture of extreme humanitarian tragedy throughout Pakistan and grave strategic consequence in Afghanistan, rival political parties in Pakistan are engaged in blood-curdling street warfare that has virtually shut down a city. Targeted political and sectarian assassinations in Karachi have already taken the lives of over 100 citizens in recent weeks, and the terror continues.
Strong democratic institutions that include representative political parties accountable to their constituents are essential for Pakistan's development as a stable, prosperous democracy. Instead of working in the interests of its people, political parties are acting more like criminal gangs that engage in violent power-grabbing tactics and ethnocentric violence reminiscent of our own 1863 draft riots in New York City.
Similar to New York City in the 1800s, Karachi is an overcrowded magnet for impoverished immigrants who reside in make-shift slums controlled by organized "land mafias." The "land mafias" of Karachi are notorious for seizing large parcels of abandoned land and renting it out to the city's poor for both profit and power. Many believe the widespread rioting and violence that is currently paralyzing Karachi is a product of a turf war between warring politically affiliated factions. To the victor goes the right to exploit the poor.
Karachi is dominated by two ethnically based political parties who are also currently part of Pakistan's governing coalition -- the Awami National Party (ANP), a secular Pashtun based party; and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), consisting of Urdu-speaking descendents of the émigrés from India at the time of partition in 1947. Intensified Taliban violence in Pashtun areas of the north has accelerated the movement of Pashtuns into Karachi, placing Karachi's longer-term resident MQM Urdu speakers in pitched competition with the wave of Pashtun newcomers.
The relationship between these two dominant groups is bound to turn even more toxic with the next round of local elections, postponed by Pakistan's flood crisis. Political party rivalry defined by ethnically based gang warfare is no basis for a stable cohesive national identity.
We applaud Prime Minister Gilani's (Pakistan People's Party) efforts to engage the ANP and the MQM in talks, and the stakes are high; ethnic violence in Karachi could spread and weaken the state; paralysis of the Karachi transportation hub could cost lives as humanitarian goods and U.S.-NATO materials get hung up in the port; and political criminality undercuts the rule of law, national unity, and the development of a truly representational democracy.
The security requirements in Pakistan are like those in Afghanistan: success in both nations will be achieved when people feel secure at home and in their villages, have access to jobs and education, and can avail themselves of a fair and timely justice system. U.S. and NATO forces are battling a brutal insurgency that terrorizes the population in Afghanistan. In Pakistan, one would hope that democratic parties focus on meeting the needs of the people rather than violent rivalry.
Wendy Chamberlin is President of the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC and a former US Ambassador to Pakistan (2001-2002).
Assertions and opinions in this editorial are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Middle East Institute, which expressly does not take positions on Middle East policy.

Since it was established over a week ago, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani's Emergency Fund has attracted less than 50,000 dollars in donations. The same goes for a similar fund created a few days ago by chief minister of the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province Ameer Haider Hoti. Flood waters are not the only bitter reality currently sweeping across Pakistan; mistrust in political leaders is spreading just as rapidly. President Asif Zardari's decision to commence a ten-day foreign tour -- despite solid warnings of an impending disaster and despite reports of hundreds of deaths -- has dealt yet another severe blow to the credibility and commitment of the head of the state.
While private television channels kept flashing ever-mounting casualty figures and destruction stories, the state-run Pakistan TV obediently followed Zardari to Paris and London, sending home images that poured salt in Pakistan's wounds. Pakistanis were in agony while their leaders were airlifted to a chateau outside Paris. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Gilani, though in Pakistan, only deigned to glance at the plight of the poor masses from a helicopter. Gilani endured much criticism for staging such photo ops.
The KPK chief minister also faced similar public anger and resentment for disappearing for days as the floods marooned hundreds of thousands in the Malakand region. And the sense one gets from the province is that the government machinery in most of the affected areas -- KPK, Punjab and Sind -- was slow in responding to the crisis. According to reports, many public officials appear utterly clueless, unable to even coordinate the aid that local and foreign NGOs have been bringing in.

Despite only having recently taken over the U.S. war effort
in Afghanistan, Gen. David Petraeus has already come
into conflict with Afghan President Hamid Karzai over the U.S. military
program to equip and train local
militias against the Taliban. While Karzai objects to the plan as possibly
building "private militias" according to the Washington Post, the argument
hints at Karzai's long-standing opposition to strengthening local institutions
at the expense of the central government, despite consistent
U.S. pressure to improve local governance. But despite these objections,
increased support for provincial and local government is necessary if the
United States wants to bring stability to Afghanistan.
For the last three decades, Afghans have not had a government that has enabled
them to live conflict-free, and therefore have become accustomed to siding with
anyone -- the Taliban, international forces, local warlords -- with whom they
find temporary support. That support includes protection from other criminal
gangs or quick services like dispute resolution mechanisms. In my January trip
to one of the most far-flung districts of Wardak province, I met a family who
travelled for three days around Ghazni to find one of the Taliban commanders
from their area, looking for a resolution of an ongoing land dispute between
two families. In half a day the commander was able to resolve a dispute that
had lasted years, and the ‘winning' family was able to grow crops on their
fields again.
BAY ISMOYO/AFP/Getty Images

Closing Guantanamo and deciding what to do with future international terrorism suspects has been harder than expected. According to the LA Times, some U.S. officials are considering expanding U.S. detention operations in Afghanistan and creating a prison similar to Guantanamo to hold terrorism suspects in order to avoid trying them in U.S. courts due to lack of evidence. This is a bad idea -- a very bad idea.
Although it may be tempting to suggest Afghanistan as an alternative holding site for suspected terrorist from places like Yemen and Somalia, I can say with certainty that establishing mini Gitmos in other countries is not a solution. If we go that route it would undoubtedly lead to a public relations disaster for the U.S. military still trying to mend relations with the Afghan people, and put a strain on diplomatic relations with the Afghan government. Not to mention such a move is legally impermissible.
I went to Guantanamo in 2007, 2008, and 2009. I have also been to Afghanistan and looked at U.S. detention operations closely. Many former detainees I interviewed in 2009, who were from the southern and eastern parts of Afghanistan, were captured in their homes during night raids U.S. forces that terrorized extended families and often involving destruction of property. Some detainees I interviewed had been held for 2 years and some up to 5 years without any opportunity to review the evidence against them or to produce tribal elders or other witnesses who could vouch for their innocence and character.
From what I've observed these actions have undermined U.S. efforts, both military and political, in Afghanistan. In my conversations with Afghans and Afghan officials in 2009, the anger over night raids and arbitrary detention by international military forces are second to that of civilian casualties and has alienated the Afghan people. In 2009, however, top commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal unveiled a new strategy that prioritizes protection of civilians, reforming U.S. detention practices, and winning back the support of the Afghans. To establish a "Gitmo" in Afghanistan could potentially undo all of this. Which might explain why Gen. McChrystal, is against establishing U.S. detention operations in Afghanistan.
Presently, the United States military in Afghanistan is already dealing with close to 800 detainees being held at the newly built Detention Facility in Parwan, including the small number of detainees captured outside Afghanistan and rendered to Bagram, during the Bush administration, some of whom are litigating their right to habeas in U.S. courts. (The previous Bagram Theater Internment Facility, which was the site of detainee deaths in 2002 and 2003 and abuse is no longer being used).
In September 2009 the Obama administration announced new detention reforms that include a new Detainee Review Board mechanism which for the first time allows detainees to bring in witnesses to rebut the military's allegations, although detainees don't have access to counsel. Detainees are eventually released, transferred to tribal elders under a reconciliation program, or tried in Afghan courts under Afghan law. (See Hidden justice: Do Obama's detention reforms in Afghanistan go far enough?). In 2009 Gen. McChrystal stated that the end goal is for the United States to transfer all detention operations to the Afghan government provided they have the capacity to process and try detainees fairly and in accordance with Afghan and international law. Task Force 435, which is responsible for U.S. detention operations in Afghanistan, plans to transfer the Parwan detention facility to the Afghan government in 2011, although the U.S. will still be involved in detention operations in some capacity. These plans, at least publicly, do not include expanding U.S. detentions in Afghanistan for future captures of terrorism suspects from Somalia, Yemen or elsewhere. But as the LA Times reported some White House officials are considering this as an option.
The business of capturing and transporting individuals from different countries to Afghanistan, which is an area of conflict, for warehousing beyond the rule of law and access to courts in laymen's term is kidnapping -- something that the United States should not be promoting as a matter of policy and constitutes a crime. Forcefully removing an individual from the territory of a state without an extradition process or judicial oversight violates that individual's right against arbitrary detention and as demonstrated in the post 9-11 rendition cases led to abuse and secret detentions. (Khaled al-Masri, a German national was transferred to CIA custody and held in Afghanistan where he alleged he was abused until U.S. officials realized that his capture was a mistake and released him in Albania. Abu Omar was captured from the streets of Italy and sent to Egypt where he alleged he was tortured. CIA agents responsible for his abduction were convicted for kidnapping in abstentia in Italy in 2009).
The debate about what to do with terrorism suspects not captured in a theater of combat is not new, but international law provides guidance. The international law of armed conflict, involving two or more states, allows the detaining authority to detain an individual with minimum legal processes until hostilities end. The Geneva Conventions does obligate the detaining authority not to remove civilians from occupied territory, to protect Prisoners of War, or, under Common Article 3, to provide certain protections to all prisoners detained in armed conflict. Whereas under the law of non-international armed conflict, which is not a war between two states, international human rights law imposes substantive and procedural constraints on a state's authority to detain and allows detention only if it is grounded in law, is not arbitrary, and subject to judicial review. Transfer of individuals from one country to another must be done through judicial oversight.
Putting aside the legality of authorizing future transfers to indefinite detention in Afghanistan, from a policy perspective such a decision would be an affront to the Afghan people and government whose sovereignty the United States recognizes and has been supporting, and would further damage U.S. counterinsurgency strategy of wining support of the Afghans against the Taliban.
Individuals captured anywhere outside Afghanistan should be lawfully transferred if evidence exists for either trial in U.S. federal courts, released or repatriated. They should not be rendered to a country where they are not citizens for indefinite detention and beyond the rule of law. Afghanistan should not be used as America's playground to warehouse alleged unsavory characters because the U.S. government chose not to gather the necessary evidence for fair prosecutions in U.S. courts or just needs these alleged bad guys off the streets. The United States should not be in the business of kidnapping and promoting global lawless enclaves.
Sahr Muhammedally is a humanrights lawyer based in London.
Paula Bronstein/Getty Images

When the Karzai government announced last week that it would be reinstating Abdul Rashid Dostum, the controversial Uzbek general, as Chief of Staff of the Army, the cries of foul and protest rang loud. Though the position is largely symbolic, critics of the Karzai government openly accused the president of making a deal with the "notorious warlord."
When it comes to Afghan politics there is usually more than meets the eye, and Dostum's case is no exception. As usual in Afghanistan it involves some back room deals. The roots of which go back to August 2009 when President Karzai allowed Dostum, the paramount head of Afghanistan's Uzbek community (which accounts for 10 percent of the country's population), back into the country after several months of exile in Turkey. Dostum had been expelled (if only briefly) for kidnapping Akbar Bey, a political rival who had betrayed him. Akbar Bey who had previously worked for Dostum turned on him in 2006 and created his own party which aimed to steal members from Dostum's Jumbesh Party.
The condition of Dostum's return to the country was that he would bring tens of thousands of Uzbek votes for Karzai with him. The Uzbeks are intensely loyal to Dostum whom they see as an ethno-secular defender of their rights vis-a-vis the Taliban and Pashtun-Tajik-dominated central government. It was Dostum who rode on horseback alongside mounted U.S. Special Forces and brought down the oppressive Taliban regime in November 2001. Most Uzbeks see him as a milli kahraman (national hero). The Uzbeks tend to vote as a block as they are told to by Dostum and, upon his return, he urged them to vote for Karzai. By all accounts the Uzbeks came out in large numbers and voted for the incumbent president in last summer's election.
In return, Dostum's Jumbesh Party selected several Uzbeks for positions in the Cabinet Karzai was to choose in the fall. But then, in a surprise demonstration of its independence, on Jan. 2, 2010, parliament rejected 17 of Karzai's 24 nominees, two of which were Uzbeks. (Of those nominees that were approved, only one was an Uzbek, Wahidullah Sharani, an independent Uzbek unaffiliated with Dostum's Jumbesh Party. Ismail Khan, a Tajik warlord from Herat was similarly rejected as Minister of Power and Water.)
Several of those who were nominated for the Cabinet have been described as representatives of ethnic jang salaran (warlords). One member of parliament claimed that in rejecting the nominees of men like Dostum or Ismail Khan himself, they were freeing Karzai up to choose more qualified candidates who did not have allegiance to provincial power brokers.
This recent move by Karzai to reinstate Dostum to the position of Chief of Staff of the Afghan Army is an obvious effort to placate his warlord supporter who was obviously angry at not having a greater say in the government that he helped instate in 2001. The Afghan president still needs Dostum to continue his efforts to keep the Taliban out of the increasingly unstable flatlands of Afghan Turkistan, the northern third of the country.
For the time being at least Karzai has brought Dostum and his Uzbek coalition into his political fold. The president would seem to be continuing this delicate balancing act which has been described as "caving in to warlords" by outsiders who might not have his understanding of the importance of keeping the Afghan factions that destroyed Afghanistan in the 1990s in check. If Karzai had not reestablished his alliance with Dostum, he may have lost the trust of the strategically located Uzbeks who have supported his government thus far. As for the future, Dostum who was once an opponent of Karzai seems to have tested the winds and found that he gains more from working with the president, while Karzai is happy to keep his former enemy close at hand.
Paula Bronstein/Getty Images
The Arabian and Indo-Australian tectonic plates meet near Karachi, the Pakistani port city inhabited by at least 15 million people. But in recent weeks, Karachi has been reeling from violent seismic activity along its ethnic and political fault lines -- not the collision of geological plates nearby.
Most discussion of Afghanistan's mammoth opium trade treats the problem as if it were Afghanistan's alone. Pundits blame corruption in the Karzai government. Aid workers want to help poppy farmers grow alternative crops. The military wants to kill or capture 50 traffickers who collaborate with the Taliban.
But too few take note of the fact that the vast majority of profits are actually earned outside Afghanistan. Addiction, Crime and Insurgency, a new report from the United Nation's Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), pulls together some eye-popping statistics in an attempt to refocus attention on the broader consequences -- and reach -- of the trade.
The report notes, for example, that Afghan farmers earn an estimated $1 billion annually off the country's 7,000 metric ton opium crop. Sounds like a lot, right? Not really: By the time they reach their final destinations, global sales of Afghan opiates are now believed to top $58 billion, according to the report. "We take three percent of the revenue," President Karzai is quoted as saying, "and 100 percent of the blame."
I'm not letting the Afghan leader off the hook for his reluctance to investigate corruption claims within his government and his own family. But it's fair to say he's not alone in the region. About 40 percent of the opiates produced in Afghanistan get smuggled out through Pakistan, now designated a major trafficking country by the U.S. government, and about one third passes into Iran, which consumes 42 percent of the world's opium. The rest appears to leave through Central Asian states and possibly India, the report says. But there has been little media attention on drug-related corruption in neighboring states, although it's widely known to be a significant problem across the region. There have been no public inquiries.
There is also widening evidence that extremist groups in the wider region -- some of them linked to al Qaeda -- are protecting drug shipments once they leave Afghanistan, precisely the point when they multiply in value. Recent seizures, like the Aug. 23 operation in Karachi that linked the Pakistani extremist group Lashkar e Jhangvi to smuggling heroin, prove that it's not just the Taliban tied to dope. The U.N. reports the problem is heading north as well: "The perfect storm of drugs, crime and insurgency that has swirled around the Afghanistan/Pakistan border for years, is heading for Central Asia," the report says.
But there's a broader issue that often gets ignored about the narcotics trade: The real money isn't in smuggling drugs, it's in laundering the dirty money. As UNODC Executive Director Antonio Maria Costa puts it: "The Afghan drug economy generates several hundred million dollars per year into evil hands -- some with black turbans, others with white collars."
This is an issue that remains misunderstood in Washington. Recent reports by the Washington Post and the New York Times indicate that the military and intelligence community continue to label the money flowing to insurgents and extremist groups in the AfPak region as "donations." I'm not suggesting the Taliban and al Qaeda get no money from ideological sympathizers, but it's clear from my research that some of these funds represent balance of payments for drugs shipments and other smuggled commodities. As I argued in my book, Seeds of Terror, insurgents (and corrupt officials) don't just protect and profit off illicit drug shipments leaving Afghanistan, they collect money on all sorts of commodities making their way into the country as well.
And if you compare what's happening in AfPak to Latin America, it becomes clear.
Traffickers don't just smuggle drugs out, they also bring legal commodities back in (providing themselves not only a legal "front" but a way to launder cash). Additionally, large sums of money flow through informal money transfer networks (in Southwest Asia and the Middle East it's called Hawala, in Latin America, the Black Market Peso Exchange). This is how dirty money makes its way back to Colombian and Mexican drug cartels as well as the smugglers in Southwest Asia.
Of course it's incredibly complicated to untangle the good money from the bad, and the problem in Southwest Asia is that law enforcement officials only recently started trying. In the eight years since the war began in Afghanistan, there has been far too little effort to regulate commerce and informal money flows in the region. But doing so will be critical, not just to reducing crime, but also to widening the tax base for Afghanistan and Pakistan, in order to make both countries less dependent on aid.
The U.N. report makes the dramatic claim that as much as 75 percent of the heroin sold in the United States and Canada could now be coming from Afghanistan, extrapolating this figure from the amount of heroin consumed in North America, and subtracting the sum of opiates produced in Latin America. This claim is backed up by recent media reports from Canada, where the Mounties say as much as 60 percent of the dope they are seizing is Afghan in origin. But a spokeswoman for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency says that less than 5 percent by weight of the heroin found on U.S. streets is of Southwest Asian origin. More investigation is probably needed.
Meanwhile, it's quite clear that European countries and Russia, which have contributed considerably less to the cause of stemming the flow of narcotics from Afghanistan, consume a stunning 47 percent of the heroin produced globally, the report says. The U.N. report puts the toll in perspective: