The death of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud in a U.S. drone strike in August of 2009 touched off a heated debate about the future of the militant outfit and its succession. Many believed Mehsud's death was a fatal blow to the TTP, and they have proven correct partially, if not fully. Soon after Mehsud's death, cracks emerged in the TTP's leadership, weakening the group's umbrella organization, which was once seen a mounting wave likely to engulf major parts of Pakistan.

Now that the United States has gotten rid of its Enemy No. 1 and founder of al-Qaeda after almost 10 years, a similar debate is raging about the future of the group that has spread its tentacles to different parts of the world and influenced countless individuals with its jihadist propaganda.

Osama bin Laden's death, in an audacious and stunning commando raid by U.S. SEALs in Pakistan's Abbottabad cantonment, is no doubt a hard blow to al-Qaeda. But it also carries adverse consequences for its TTP affiliate. The TTP's leadership is already underground, partly because of major military actions by Pakistani security forces in areas like Swat, Mohmand, and Waziristan, and partly because of the increasing number of drone strikes in the tribal areas over the past year. In a situation where the TTP was already in disarray, the killing of bin Laden, the hero of all militant groups and particularly their footsoldiers and new recruits, will prove disastrous for their morale.

Read on

By Daud Khattak

The failure of al Qaeda to stage more attacks on the U.S. in the same style as September 11, 2001 over the past eight years indicates its weakness. The flushing out of its leadership from Afghanistan and the arrest of its several mid-ranking leaders, mostly in Afghanistan and Pakistan, has bitterly disturbed its organizational structure.

However, we must also recognize that many al Qaeda supporters, if not active members, have been created by some of the coalition's misguided policies in the past eight years.

One such example is the use of airpower in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Pakistan, U.S.-operated drone strikes have taken out several al Qaeda leaders, but often go astray and kill civilians. Similarly in Afghanistan, airstrikes like the one in Kunduz last week that killed up to 125 create and enlarge the support base for al Qaeda in the countries, which were once already mostly purged of those elements. These airstrikes, under the new leadership of top NATO commander in Afghanistan Gen. Stanley McChrystal, have dropped by almost half -- a trend that should be continued.

By the same token, dealing with the extremist problem by using only military might is not going to eliminate the scourge of militant violence. To root it out, the international community should focus on areas like Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan and the border regions of Afghanistan, to root out poverty, promote education, ensure health and civic facilities. Educating one tribesman is worth spending $100,000 on pity projects which often end soon after inauguration (see the large number of such projects in Helmand, Zabul, Uruzgan and southeastern Afghanistan). Hence, alongside the military action, the human side of the issue should also be addressed to ensure success against not only al Qaeda, but all sorts of militancies and insurgencies.

Daud Khattak is a correspondent for the Pakistani newspaper The News International.

FAROOQ NAEEM/AFP/Getty Images

This exclusive photograph was taken by Daud Khattak and a colleague in Orakzai in 2008. Hakimullah Mehsud is sitting in the center.

By Daud Khattak

In a surprise move, the self-proclaimed interim chief of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) announced the appointment of Hakimullah Mehsud as the new head of the militia, though spokesman Maulvi Faqir Muhammad denied the death of the former TTP chief Baitullah Mehsud in the August 5 missile attack by a U.S. aircraft in South Waziristan.

The Bajaur-based Faqir, who was a deputy of the late Baitullah, announced Hakimullah as the new leader on his illegal FM channel on Saturday, although Faqir had declared himself as the interim head of the organization just a few days before, appointing the Swat-based Muslim Khan as his central spokesman.

Faqir said, "Our 22-member shura met in Orakzai Agency for two days and announced Hakimullah as its head and Tariq Azam as the new central spokesman."

Since reports of Baitullah's death in early August, rumors of infighting among the TTP, once run by Baitullah's iron fist, have plagued the militant organization, and Saturday's declaration has further increased speculation about serious rifts among different factions of the Taliban.

Commanders like Maulvi Nazir, Hafiz Gul Bahadar, and Haji Turkistan Betani had already distanced themselves from the Baitullah-led TTP. It now seems a group supporting Wali ur-Rehman, a senior commander and close confidante of Baitullah, whose name has also been in the running to succeed him, is also sidelining itself following the appointment of Hakimullah as the new head of the Pakistani Taliban.
 
Hakimullah himself has not made any comments about Faqir Muhammad's announcement, fueling rumors that he was killed in a clash during a Taliban shura by men of rival commander Wali ur-Rehman shortly after the death of Baitullah.

Just a day before the announcement of Hakimullah as TTP chief by Maulvi Faqir Muhammad, some Taliban sources told me that the Taliban wanted to change the name of their organization from "TTP." Observers believe that Faqir announced Hakimullah as the new Taliban chief under pressure from the Waziristan-based Taliban, who are the strongest of the Taliban factions, and are unwilling to surrender the leadership -- or naming rights -- of the TTP to anyone from outside their region.

Indeed, Hakimullah's second name, by which many Taliban know him, is Zulfiqar Mehsud. He belongs to the same tribe, Mehsud, to which Baitullah belonged. Since it is the largest tribe in Waziristan and contributes the largest number of fighters to the TTP, Mehsud tribesmen believe continued leadership of the group is their right.

And although Maulvi Faqir Muhammad said that Taliban commanders Maulvi Nazeer of North Waziristan and Hafiz Gul Bahadar of South Waziristan approved the appointment of Hakimullah Mehsud as the TTP chief, the two militants, who never truly subdued to Baitullah's rule, have not affirmed their support for him.
 
Unlike Baitullah, Hakimullah Mehsud wants his cheerful face captured on camera and performed some outrageous maneuvers to get it there, including driving a stolen NATO Humvee and firing a heavy machine gun in front of cameras when he invited a group of journalists to the tribal agency of Orakzai last year. This stunt made him a real hero for the Taliban and inspired many fresh young people in the tribal regions to join his forces.
 
Unlike other Taliban leaders, Hakimullah Mehsud often smiles and is one of the youngest commanders of Taliban (there are differing views about his age; some say he is 28 while others think he's in his early thirties).
 
Hakimullah is considered by his Taliban colleagues as one of the boldest commanders in the militant organization, partly explaining why he was so close to Baitullah. Additionally, he has personal relationships with both Baitullah and the master trainer of child suicide bombers, Qari Hussain. Hakimullah once served as a driver to Baitullah, was later promoted to head of the Taliban in Orakzai, and became a key aide to the erstwhile TTP leader.
 
Last year, Hakimullah's daring attacks on NATO supply trucks in Khyber Agency and looting of goods and food destined for NATO troops in Afghanistan catapulted him to fame among the ranks of Taliban.
 
When reports about the death of Baitullah Mehsud started coming in, Hakimullah was the head of the Taliban in Orakzai, Kurram, Khyber and the outskirts of Peshawar. It was Hakimullah who had claimed responsibility for destroying nearly 600 NATO vehicles destined for Afghanistan in attacks on freight terminals on the outskirts of Peshawar last year and early this year.  

It was also Hakimullah who declared sharia in Orakzai Agency in December 2008. He was in the newspaper headlines once more when he imposed Jizia (a tax) on members of Sikh and Hindu communities living in Orakzai and Khyber. Several Sikh and Hindu families fled the area because they were unable to pay this tax to the Taliban, who said it was mandatory for non-Muslims living in an Islamic state to pay Jizia to the Muslims in exchange for providing them safety of their lives and property.

Besides almost cutting the NATO forces key supply line to Afghanistan in Khyber Agency, Hakimullah has claimed responsibility for several suicide attacks in Peshawar and the attack on the police academy in Lahore, in Pakistan.