Event notice: New York University's Center for Law and Security is hosting an all-day conference today in New York City on "Counterinsurgency: America's Strategic Burden." Click here for more details.

"There are warlords and there are warlords"

As part of her media outreach following yesterday's inauguration of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave a brief but wide-ranging interview to Afghanistan's Azadi Radio (State Department, AFP). Maintaining a conciliatory tone towards the embattled president, Clinton expressed a wish for the presence of more professionals and technocrats in the Afghan government; when asked whether the U.S. would support a Karzai administration with warlords, she said, "Well, there are warlords and there are warlords."

In today's must-read, Rajiv Chandrasekaran details the genesis and implications of the Obama administration's new, "softer" approach to dealing with Karzai (Washington Post). This new "reset" involves more direct interaction between senior Obama administration officials and Afghan government officials, while taking a less aggressive and more cooperative tone with Karzai, implicitly admitting that past behavior towards Karzai may have worsened, not helped, the situation in Afghanistan.

While figures like Vice President Joe Biden and Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Ambassador Richard Holbrooke will interact less with Karzai under the new approach, Hillary Clinton is emerging as a crucial link between the Obama administration and Karzai, due to her self-described "long-term positive relationship" with the Afghan president (New York Times).

And Karzai's inauguration in a locked-down, fortified Kabul drew tepid reviews from Afghan observers and Western officials alike (Independent). While Karzai sounded encouraging notes on fighting corruption and building up Afghan security forces in front of the closed audience of dignitaries, many are concerned about his ability to follow through on his promises (Wall Street Journal). Others questioned the presence in the government of men such as Abdul Rashid Dostum and Abdul Rahim Wardak, who are accused of committing grievous crimes (McClatchy, Guardian).

A market bombing

A suicide bomber on a motorcycle killed up to 16 and wounded 34 in Afghanistan's southwestern Farah Province, which borders Iran (Pajhwok, AP, Reuters, BBC, Al Jazeera). Police tried in vain to stop the bomber, who detonated his explosives in the middle of a crowded square. And a roadside bomb killed three people and wounded four members of the same family in Afghanistan's eastern Khost Province (Dawn). Four attacks have hit Afghanistan since Karzai's inauguration yesterday, killing a total of around 30 people (AFP). And an Afghan lawmaker and erstwhile warlord narrowly escaped assassination near Kabul earlier today (AP).

Troops decision watch

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates indicated that additional troops could be deployed "swiftly" to Afghanistan if the president decides to increase U.S. forces in the country, but pointed out that logistical challenges would make any deployment slower than those for the 2007 Iraq troop surge (AP). Gates also responded to U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown's recent calls for a timeline to transition control of security to Afghan forces by saying that it was "too early" to decide on a schedule (AFP).

And as many around the world await word on Obama's decision on troops, an analysis of his rapidly-filling schedule indicates that he will have limited opportunities in the coming weeks to make a formal announcement to the public (Washington Post). Obama is not expected to announce his decision before Thanksgiving, according to White House aides (Washington Post).

Gordon Brown has been out in front of the debates on Afghanistan in recent weeks -- too far out front for some, both at home and abroad (Wall Street Journal, The Independent). U.S. officials have reportedly grown irritated at the British prime minister's attempts to influence the debate in Washington, while he faces growing opposition to the Afghan war among Britain's public and in its parliament.

And German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said Thursday that Germany has not ruled out sending more forces to Afghanistan; however, he added that any increase would depend on U.S. President Barack Obama's new war strategy as well as the commitment of the Afghan government to improve security and crack down on corruption (Reuters).

Violence in Pakistan

A roadside bomb exploded next to a passing Pakistani police vehicle yesterday in Peshawar, killing three police officers and wounding as many as to six others (AFP, Dawn, AP, New York Times, Al Jazeera). The attack comes on the heels of yesterday's suicide bomb attack on a Peshawar courthouse, and is the eighth attack in or around the northwestern Pakistani city to occur in the past two weeks.

A suspected U.S. drone strike has killed eight militants in Mir Ali, in the North Waziristan tribal agency (AP, Reuters, Dawn, AFP, BBC, CNN). The strike reportedly targeted a militant compound and a vehicle and is the second in North Waziristan in as many days.

Pakistan's Army announced that it is on the verge of seizing the South Waziristan town of Janata, believed to be the last town where the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) trained suicide bombers and other fighters (FT). The seizure of the town would indicate increased Pakistani control over the region, though the majority of Taliban fighters are believed to have fled. And while spiraling terrorist violence has convinced many in Pakistan that a U.S. presence in Afghanistan is crucial to Pakistan's security, doubts remain about the U.S.'s commitment to both countries, and the effect an influx of troops in Afghanistan might have on Pakistan (AP).

Politics in Pakistan

In another essential read today, Sabrina Tavernise analyzes the extremely tenuous Pakistani political situation, describing a Pakistan that has little faith in its elected civilian government, where constant speculation of a military coup circulates and a recent poll indicated that 59 percent of Pakistanis believe the U.S. poses a greater threat to Pakistan than India (New York Times). Other analysts concur that Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari's political position is increasingly shaky, and that without drastic reforms within his party he may soon be forced to resign or fall prey to the machinations of Pakistan's army and opposition political groups (Foreign Policy).

CIA chief Leon Panetta is in Pakistan today and held talks with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, finding "intelligence cooperation" according to the premier's office, and agreement on an "operational functioning between the two militaries and intelligence agencies" to eliminate the terror threat (AFP, AP). It is Panetta's second trip to Pakistan since taking office and comes just a week after U.S. National Security Adviser Jim Jones made a similar trip.

The threat from within

The arrests last week of suspected Islamist militants David Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana are unique, in that instead of plotting to attack the U.S., the two are accused of using the Chicago area as a base from which to scout targets in India and plan an attack in Denmark (Washington Post, Reuters). Counterterrorism officials are reportedly alarmed at the prospect of the U.S. being used as a base from which to plan external attacks.

A Senate committee yesterday held the first hearings into the Fort Hood shootings, with Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) among others asserting that the shootings were a "terrorist" attack (New York Times). The Pentagon also launched two separate investigations into the shootings yesterday (Washington Post). Defense Secretary Gates refused, however, to say whether or not he believed the Fort Hood shootings were an act of terrorism.

Should have just had the nose job

The chairman of the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has ruled out the return to Pakistan's team of star bowler Shoaib Akhtar, after the latter underwent liposuction surgery without seeking the PCB's permission as required by his contract (Daily Times). Akhtar, who has a long history of fitness problems, could take up to five months to recover fully from the surgery.

Editor's note: today's AfPak Channel Daily Brief was prepared by Andrew Lebovich, a research associate at the New America Foundation, and Katherine Tiedemann.

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By Philip Smucker

Along Afghanistan's porous border with Pakistan, the U.S. Army is focused on reaching out to Afghan villagers and building local institutions. Immense mountains and abject poverty stand out as obstacles to success, but it is the human terrain that presents the greatest challenge.

In this mini-documentary, Lt. Jake Kerr, West Point Class '07, leads his motley "Combat Platoon" out of a remote outpost in the Dangam District of eastern Afghanistan's Kunar province. Kerr, 25, of Lake Placid, N.Y., struggles to improve his skills as a peacemaker and diplomat even as the Taliban and his own "warrior" alter-ego draw him deeper into combat.

As more platoon-sized U.S. Army bases in eastern Afghanistan are abandoned over security fears, President Obama and the military's top brass must scrutinize the hard work of "Combat Platoon" and others like it. In doing so, they must balance the pros of having America's best foot forward, protecting the Afghans in a classic interpretation of Gen. Petraeus' counter-insurgency doctrine, while, at the same time, weighing the cons of putting more fighters in harm's way in a conflict that has only fragile -- sometimes fickle -- support at home.

This look at life on the front lines was filmed and narrated by Philip Smucker, the author of Al Qaeda’s Great Escape: The Military and the Media on Terror’s Trail. (Potomac, 2004.) It is part of a longer documentary project to accompany his forthcoming book, My Brother, My Enemy: America and the Battle of Ideas across the Islamic World. (Prometheus, 2010.)

Wonk Watch: AfPak Channel editor and New America Foundation senior fellow Peter Bergen is testifying before the House Committee on Homeland Security this morning on the evolving threat from al Qaeda to the United States. His testimony is available here and a webcast will be available here at 10:00am EST. If you would like us to consider featuring your research in Wonk Watch, email it to tiedemann@newamerica.net.

High expectations

Nearly three months after the fraud-plagued election, Afghan President Hamid Karzai was inaugurated into his second five year term, saying that he wants Afghan security forces to be under full Afghan control within five years and called for a loya jirga, or traditional council of elders, to address the insurgent threat and the country's pervasive corruption (BBC, Washington Post, AFP, Pajhwok). In a speech that hit many of the same notes he struck during the presidential campaign, Karzai called for his erstwhile presidential rival Abdullah Abdullah to join a national unity government and also reached out to Taliban fighters for reconciliation (Times of London).

Excerpts of Karzai's inauguration speech, which was attended by some 800 Afghan and foreign dignitaries, are available from the BBC (BBC, New York Times). The Taliban, for their part, dismissed the inauguration as "not a historic day" and called Kabul a "government based on nothing," though initial foreign reaction was more positive (AP). Security in the Afghan capital today was tight and the mood tense, as the government declared a holiday and encouraged Afghan and international workers alike to stay home out of fears over militant attacks (Al Jazeera, Foreign Policy, Los Angeles Times).

And indeed, Afghan officials say a pair of suicide bombs in neighboring Uruzgan and Zabul provinces in southern Afghanistan killed at least ten civilians and two U.S. soldiers at around the same time Karzai was being inaugurated (AP, AFP, Reuters).

A key concern of the international community is the levels of corruption in Afghanistan, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered "what amounted to a stern pep talk to a nervous partner" to Karzai, saying in private to the president that future civilian aid from the U.S. would depend in part on how well the government addressed corruption (New York Times, Reuters). Clinton later told reporters that Kabul has not done "nearly enough to demonstrate a seriousness of purpose to tackle corruption" (New York Times, Washington Post, Pajhwok). Part of addressing the corruption problem will be rooting out the cronyism that has pervaded the government, and Karzai is facing rising calls from Afghans, Western donors, and the United States to replace many of the warlords who supported him during the election season (New York Times).

The cost of doing business?

A prime example of the scope of Afghanistan's corruption problem is the case of the Afghan minister of mines, who reportedly accepted a bribe of $30 million in exchange for awarding the country's largest development project to a Chinese firm (Washington Post, Times of London, AP). Muhammad Ibrahim Adel allegedly accepted the bribe in Dubai in late 2007, when the state-run China Metallurgical Group Corp. won the nearly $3 billion bid to extract copper from the Aynak deposit, considered one of the world's largest 'unexploited' copper deposits, in Logar province. In a press conference yesterday, Adel vehemently denied the accusation and is considering suing the Washington Post, which broke the story (Pajhwok).

Corruption, violence, and political uncertainty may cause a massive capital flight from Afghanistan, according to Al Jazeera, which reports that many Afghan business owners are already moving their assets overseas to the Gulf where the economies are safer (Al Jazeera). Another reason for the exodus is the recent increase in kidnappings for ransom of the relatives of wealthy Afghan businessmen.

Afghanistan's other elections

And in an under-covered story, McClatchy checks in on the status of Afghanistan's provincial elections -- which occurred on the same day as the presidential balloting in August and suffered from similar problems of fraud and threats of violence -- to find that many of the provincial-level contests remain unresolved (McClatchy). The U.N.-backed body charged with investigating complaints about the election is still considering 640 high-priority claims before issuing final verdicts.

Afghanistan's election drama comes as the United States is contemplating a new plan for the country, the debate around which has recently shifted toward an exit strategy, which worries some lawmakers like Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MI), who said of the Taliban that "they'll just wait us out" (Wall Street Journal). Senior officials say, however, that U.S. President Barack Obama is not calling for publicly declared handover dates, but rather "key milestones" for the country to meet.

An explosive attack

In the eighth major attack since the beginning of the month, a suicide bomber who arrived in a taxi and detonated his explosives while being searched by Pakistani police at the entrance of a courthouse in Peshawar killed at least 19 and wounded more than 50 (AP, Dawn, Geo TV, Reuters, BBC). The capital of the Northwest Frontier Province, Peshawar, has been hard hit by attacks that picked up speed in early October ahead of the Pakistani military's operations in the militant stronghold of South Waziristan (AP, Bloomberg). The spate of violence has left more than 400 Pakistanis dead.

A spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban, in a news conference yesterday in a secret location in South Waziristan, told a handful of reporters that the militant group had not retreated, as the Army has claimed, but instead said, "We have voluntarily withdrawn into the mountains under a strategy that will trap the Pakistan army in the area" (AFP, Dawn, The News). Some 550 militants have reportedly been killed since the operations began.

In the United States' 46th alleged drone strike in Pakistan this year, several missiles were fired at a suspected Taliban compound in the tribal agency of North Waziristan, killing several reported militants in the Shana Khuwara village close to the South Waziristan border (Geo TV, Reuters, BBC, Dawn, AP). There have been no reports of drone strikes in South Waziristan, previously a frequent target of the CIA-operated missiles, since the Pakistani military's offensive began on October 17.

The U.S. expects to complete a review of how to spend the $7.5 billion in aid for Pakistan by the end of November, focusing on the country's "decrepit" energy sector, which economists say undermines potential for growth and weakens the already-shaky civilian government (Reuters). It is not yet known precisely how the $1.5 billion per year will be allocated, but officials say infrastructure projects are an "important part" of the review.

Complicated connections

Indian officials are investigating whether two men, recently arrested in Chicago on terrorism charges related to planning an attack on a Danish newspaper that in 2005 published cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, have connections to the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks that left more than 160 dead (New York Times, Washington Post). David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana -- a U.S. and a Canadian citizen, respectively -- are also accused of reporting to Ilyas Kashmiri, a onetime Pakistani military officer turned Islamist militant commander associated with both al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba, and conspiring with another as-yet-unnamed former Pakistani military official, in one of the first cases in which authorities have seemed to link suspects directly to former officers, though such connections have long been suspected.

And in almost a dozen recent terrorism cases in the U.S., U.K., and Canada, investigators have discovered a common thread among the suspects: devotion to messages from the radical U.S.-born Yemeni cleric Anwar al-Aulaqi, who has apparently used the internet to useful effect in radicalization (New York Times). Aulaqi has been linked to the Fort Hood and Fort Dix attacks, among others.

Happily ever later

Thousands of Pakistanis have demanded that the government of Punjab province not implement a recently passed resolution to stop performing marriage ceremonies after 10:00pm (The News). The neighboring Sindh government allows marriage ceremonies until 12:00am, and the protesters want Punjab to follow suit.

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By Asma Nemati

A day before President Hamid Karzai's inauguration on November 19, traffic -- incoming and outgoing -- on all major roads in Kabul was at a standstill. I left my house to get to a clinic via a route that normally takes twenty minutes, but due to the numerous presidents and other VIPs flying in, I had to take a long detour across and around Kabul, so the trip took nearly two and a half hours.

Security is tight; at least one fully equipped Afghan National Army soldier could be seen today every 100 meters on major roads out of the airport. From the airport, lines of SUVs with red government license plates filed into the city nearly every hour. On the actual inauguration day, two districts surrounding the presidential palace will be completely closed for security purposes.

The pre-inauguration mood in Kabul is tense. Television ads this week have been warning Afghans to stay home and limit movements on November 19. Threats of attacks are piling higher and higher as organizations scuttle to advise caution to Afghan and international workers alike.

Besides that, media access to the inauguration ceremony is quite limited as even major news agencies are struggling to sneak one or two of their reporters on the guest list, while the rest will be sent to a media center where they can watch the inauguration live on television. In fact, provincial governors are also not allowed to observe the inauguration ceremony; I was talking with a governor a few days ago and he was disappointed at not being able to meet with the honored guests, among them Hillary Clinton, Asif Ali Zardari, Bernard Kouchner, and David Miliband.

Regardless of who is watching, Karzai has a lot to address in his big inauguration speech. Pressure is mounting from all sides -- U.S., Afghan, international -- on the president to get a grip on corruption in order for the international community to continue aiding Afghanistan. Even as Karzai vows to stamp out corruption, he has yet to reveal how and whether the international community will play a big role in that effort. But, of course, this is also a critical point in Karzai's second term as he's still in the process of mapping out his political cabinet.

Most in Afghanistan today will be glued to TV screens or radio speakers. In general, Afghans would like the inauguration to be over with so that they can continue their lives. Let's just hope Karzai keeps at least some of his promises to improve security and combat corruption.

Asma Nemati, a researcher from Kabul, is an instructor at the American University of Afghanistan.

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By Steve Coll

I have a new post up on my New Yorker blog.

In the comments on Thomas Ricks’s blog at Foreign Policy, I came across a well-informed dissent to my straw-man forecast about what failure in Afghanistan would bring. Here is the writer’s alternative take on my failure scenarios one and two:

On a 90s-style Afghan Civil War:

There already IS a civil war. It’s just that we’re fighting it on behalf of the Northern Alliance at the moment. We’d have to turn it over to them to fight. Also, one key difference between the 90s War and the new one would be that we would be backing one of the sides with arms, money and diplomatic cover. As would the rest of the world. So all the nasty things that our Tajik, Uzbek, and Hazara brethren would be doing to the Pashtuns would be looked over by virtually every major player on the International scene.

On momentum for a Taliban revolution in Pakistan:

I usually agree with Steve Coll about AfPak but the logic behind this scenario is murky, at best. The ISI, as a rule, still backs the ‘Afghan Taliban.’ The loose coalition of militants that exists in FATA and NWFP that are known as the ‘Pakistani Taliban’ have distinct ambitions from the ‘Afghan Taliban.’ They attack ISI and Pak military targets, and the leaders have supposedly said they would target NATO convoys once they’re ‘finished’ with the Pak Army. No one yet knows what the future of the two Talibans is going to be. Steve’s assumption seems to be the ‘worst case scenario.’ And even then it doesn’t address the fact that the ‘Afghan Taliban,’ in helping the ‘Pakistani Taliban,’ would be biting the hand that helped create them (ISI), sustain them, protect them, and brought them back to power again….

Just a couple of thoughts. I take the point that the international community already engaged in an Afghan civil war; that’s well said. But it is for the moment clearly a war that is not yet producing the kinds of ethnic schisms and civilian deaths familiar from the recent past. Note the Oxfam poll of Afghan civilians, for example, as evidence about skeptical Afghan attitudes toward the Taliban, despite the stresses and failures of the Karzai government.

The waiting game

U.S. President Barack Obama reportedly told CNN today that he is "very close" to making a decision about whether to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan and plans to make an announcement "in the next several weeks," after more than two months of deliberations (Reuters, Reuters). Obama is reportedly angry about the stream of leaks that has come out about his Afghanistan decision, telling CBS, "For people to be releasing info in the course of deliberations is not appropriate" and said yes when asked if that is a "firing offense" (CBS, Politico). Meanwhile, Afghans are on hold, waiting for Obama to announce a decision and for President Hamid Karzai to be inaugurated tomorrow and appoint his cabinet of ministers (AP, Reuters).

Whether Karzai will appoint reformers or stack his cabinet with political friends remains an open question that worries Afghan and international observers alike (AFP, Independent). Doubts are growing as to whether the embattled Afghan president, who returned to power after a fraud-ridden contest on August 20, will be able to finish his five year term, given the challenges he faces: regaining voter trust, assuring the international community of his commitment to fighting corruption, and recovering control of areas currently ruled by Taliban militants (McClatchy). U.S. officials have reportedly given Karzai a list of 40 people it considers "clean enough" to participate in his new cabinet.

Presumably not included on the "clean enough" list is the president's half-brother Ahmed Wali Karzai, who has become a "symbol of cronyism and a lightning rod for criticism of all that is wrong with Karzai's administration" (AP). Alexandra Zavis has a must-read on the plague of corruption in Afghanistan (Los Angeles Times).

The Afghan capital Kabul is in "lockdown" ahead of Karzai's inauguration on Thursday, which has been declared a public holiday in Afghanistan, and analysts expect Taliban attacks on tomorrow's ceremony, which is not open to the public but instead will be held inside the presidential palace and reportedly attended by dignitaries from 42 countries, including U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (AFP, AP, McClatchy). Clinton has just landed in Kabul for the inauguration and to meet with top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan Gen. Stanley McChrystal, on her first visit to the country as the U.S.'s top diplomat (AFP, AP, AFP). Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband, and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner are also among the 300 foreign dignitaries slated to attend the inauguration (Reuters, Pajhwok).

Poll watching

Two new polls on Afghanistan were released earlier today, the first from Washington Post/ABC finding that while Americans are nearly evenly split on whether Obama should order a smaller or larger number of U.S. troops to Afghanistan, almost half believe Obama's policies are not making much difference in making the U.S. safer from terrorism (Washington Post). The second poll from CBS found that 69 percent of Americans think the war in Afghanistan is going badly, and only 38 percent of those surveyed approve of Obama's performance in handling Afghanistan, down from 58 percent in April (CBS). The full results of the polls can be found here (Washington Post, CBS).

Another new report released today comes from the British aid agency Oxfam, finding that seven of ten Afghans surveyed believe poverty and unemployment are to blame for the country's ongoing conflict (BBC, AFP). The full report, which assesses that after the past three decades of war the "social fabric of the country is fractured," is available from Oxfam (Oxfam).

The trials of coordination

The European Union's training missing in Afghanistan for the country's police force is reportedly understaffed, poorly coordinated with other organizations, lacking in proper security and transportation, and has not yet developed a uniform training program, after two and a half years since it began (New York Times). NATO is expected to start its own police training mission, financed by the U.S., in the coming weeks. And Chuck Liddy profiles "a day in the life" of a Chinook transport helicopter in Afghanistan, a country whose roads are riddled with roadside bombs and at risk for Taliban ambushes, necessitating more travel by air (McClatchy).

Ghost towns

After the Pakistani Army took journalists on a second guided tour of South Waziristan yesterday, veteran correspondents Pam Constable and Sabrina Tavernise have essential reads on the site of the one-month-old Pakistani military offensive in the militant-infested tribal agency on the border with Afghanistan (Washington Post, New York Times). Zahid Hussain reports that commanders believe most of the region's some 10,000 militants have melted into the imposing mountains or fled to neighboring agencies, foreshadowing a long struggle (Wall Street Journal, Times of London). There has been no reporting about civilian casualties caused by the operations, though more than 300,000 Pakistanis have fled the conflict zone.

The Pakistani Army took the cadre of reporters to a school in Ladha, a town in South Waziristan that Taliban militants used as a base, and showed a school that officials claimed was used as a training camp for suicide bombers (AP, Al Jazeera). In Sararogha, a nearby village that is also a militant stronghold, Chris Brummitt reports seeing a school with a room used by the Taliban as a pseudo-courthouse complete with documents detailing a property dispute. The U.S. is reportedly putting pressure on Pakistan to expand its anti-militant offensive into North Waziristan and the Baluchi city of Quetta, believed to be home to the leadership of the Afghan Taliban (Telegraph).

Also in Quetta earlier today, Pakistani police arrested an alleged al Qaeda suspect who was attempting to leave the country to perform Hajj, the Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca (Dawn, Pajhwok). Airport authorities reportedly knew from looking at the man's passport that he was involved with the terrorist group in some way.

Extra virgin?

An olive production factory in the eastern Afghan province of Nangarhar recently re-opened three years after being damaged by fighting in the country and is expected to produce 10 tons of pickles and 40 tons of olive oil next season (Pajhwok). About a pound of olive oil from this factory reportedly sells for some $5.

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By Michael Innes

The Obama Administration's social media prowess has been a novelty among latter day political media machines. It helped to crowd-source the campaign funding needed to put Barack Obama in the White House, and generated a populist gloss that was, at the time, convincingly fresh and transparent. What was equally admirable was its apparent internal discipline over when information made the transition from government secret to press release. Controlling the flow of data and keeping secrets secret is a challenge under any circumstance. Combine that with a predilection for Facebook and Twitter, and a hyperactive security officer might expect policy waters to muddy more quickly than they would under normal circumstances.

So when U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry's expressed his "discomfort" last week over a possible troop surge, via diplomatic cable to Washington, it's no wonder that the message ended up dominating headlines. The New York Times reported "U.S. Envoy Urges Caution on Forces for Afghanistan." The BBC offered a characteristically staid "U.S. Envoy Opposed to Afghan Surge." The other Times (of London) headline was less sanguine: "Rift in U.S. War Cabinet as Obama Throws Out All Options in Debate Over Troop Surge." How exactly the cables ended up fodder for public consumption is anyone's guess. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, for one, is not amused. "I have been appalled," he told reporters last week, "by the amount of leaking that has been going on in this process" -- an allusion to diplomatic decorum inspired, no doubt, by more than just untimely revelations to the press.

If recent events are any indication, one might be forgiven for thinking that the Administration is hemorrhaging while its chief executive dithers. In September, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, Obama's top general in Afghanistan and Commander of NATO's ISAF mission in the country, advocated his proposed troop surge in public. He did it on his own, speaking out of turn while decisions were still being made, and got rapped on the knuckles for it. In late October, Matthew Hoh, a 36 year old State Department official serving as Senior Civilian Representative in Zabul Province, resigned in protest over U.S. involvement in Afghanistan. His letter of resignation, later published by the Washington Post, caused a stir.

It would be naive to suggest that Hoh may have inspired others -- like Eikenberry, his former boss in Afghanistan, whose more recent act of dissension has both ruffled feathers and acted as a counterweight to military lobbying. Moreover, according to an in-depth profile of Gates in The New Republic last week the Secretary, normally a font of composure, has been no stranger to the game in his long career as a CIA intelligence analyst and civil servant. Now, he thinks "everyone out there ought to just shut up." The BBC reported that Eikenberry's tactics have left McChrystal fuming, and an unnamed "senior NATO official" told the Financial Times "it's safe to say that Ambassador Eikenberry and Stanley McChrystal will not be exchanging Christmas cards this year."

Whatever the state of intra-departmental relations, the "war of leaks" doesn't play well on the international stage. Fellow FP columnist David Rothkopf put it into context, writing that "This is not a weakness of the Obama Administration per se," but more a symptom of the "culture of Washington." David Betz, a friend, colleague and Senior Lecturer in War Studies at King's College London, took the criticism in a slightly different direction, writing "this may, one day, make a really great movie... but it's a pretty dismal way to make strategy." Indeed, while the U.S. has yet to make up its mind on Afghanistan, NATO has already endorsed McChrystal's plans. That suggests there may be some additional discomfort ahead, either for the Alliance, which will have to go through yet more bureaucratic deliberations in the event of any major change of approach -- even if only to rubber stamp it -- or for U.S. leadership in Afghanistan, which will have to shoulder the burden of implementation.

Non-U.S. contributors to the NATO mission will be affected either way the shoe drops, and public support for the war among some of the Alliance's European members is anything but unified. Worse, diplomatic efforts to smooth out the appearance of difference are unconvincing. In an interview last week, for example, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Gordon told Der Spiegel that "restoring the unity of the Atlantic Alliance is an important thing that in some ways has already been accomplished. On the key issues of the day, I think there is more trans-Atlantic unity than at almost anytime in the post-World War II period." One assumes that the key issue of the day is Afghanistan; if so, Gordon's assertion is only true if he meant that we can agree to disagree.

In the U.K. a small majority of respondents in a recent BBC poll felt that they "have a good understanding of the purpose of Britain's mission in Afghanistan," but that "All British forces should be withdrawn from Afghanistan as quickly as possible," "the war is unwinnable," and "the levels of corruption involved in the recent Presidential election show the war in Afghanistan is not worth fighting for." In a separate Financial Times/Harris Poll, respondents in Spain, Italy, France and Germany were generally split on whether the U.S. should send more troops, were somewhat more positively inclined towards giving NATO more time to accomplish its mission, and in the U.K., were distinctly pessimistic about whether troops are adequately equipped for the task. Numbers never tell the whole tale, but one thing is certain: the longer U.S. leadership waffles and stumbles, the greater the likelihood that that kind of pessimism will come to replace indecision as our strategy in Afghanistan.

Michael A. Innes is a PhD Candidate at University College London and a Visiting Research Fellow in the School of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds. From 2003 to 2009 he was a civilian staff officer with NATO, and spent the months of April and May this year as a staff liaison to ISAF HQ in Kabul.

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The New America Foundation is seeking a Counterterrorism Fellow to work with Steve Coll and Peter Bergen. For more information visit here. New America is also seeking spring interns for the American Strategy Program and Nuclear Strategy and Nonproliferation Initiative.

With bags of gold

On the heels of yesterday's announcement that Afghanistan is forming a new crime unit to address the pervasive corruption in the country after insistent calls from international leaders that President Hamid Karzai improve governance, a watchdog group has ranked Afghanistan the world's second-most corrupt country, surpassed only by Somalia (AP, Al Jazeera, AP, BBC, Reuters). The full results of the 2009 Corruption Perceptions Index, which measures perceived levels of public sector corruption by drawing on surveys of businesses and experts, are available from Transparency International (TI).

A new British Army field manual reportedly instructs soldiers to buy off potential militant recruits with "bags of gold," though cautions that distributing cash must be done wisely to prevent the distortion of local economies, and also encourages "short-term, labor-intensive" projects in Afghanistan as the "best way" to disrupt extremist recruitment (Times of London, Telegraph). The manual, which will be taught to new officers, says that Army commanders should talk to Taliban militants "with blood on their hands" in order to speed up the end of the conflict.

Step by step

Last night at a banquet in London, U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown offered to host an international summit early next year to discuss a "timetable" for transferring control "district by district" to Afghan security forces (Telegraph, Reuters, Guardian, Times of London, BBC, Financial Times). The head of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, said this morning that he expects "substantially more forces" for Afghanistan to be announced "in a few weeks," though he too emphasized that the troop increase is part of a wider plan to hand over power to the Afghans (AFP, Reuters). And Iran's foreign minister said yesterday that a regional approach to help "solve" Afghanistan is needed, citing Lebanon as an example (AFP).

Yesterday's rocket attack on a bazaar northeast of Kabul that resulted in the death of 12 civilians and was presumably aimed at a nearby meeting of local leaders and French military forces highlights insecurity in eastern Afghanistan, according to a provincial police chief (AP, New York Times, AP, Pajhwok). A Taliban spokesman denied responsibility for the attack, which is not uncommon in cases that result in civilian casualties. An account of a battle between coalition forces with attack helicopters and Taliban militants in the eastern Afghan province of Zabul illustrates some of the details of war, and some Afghan interpreters working with British troops claim they are being "abandoned" after being wounded (McClatchy, Telegraph).

Into the caves

The Pakistani Army flew journalists this morning to Sararogha, a key strategic town in South Waziristan, on the one-month mark of the military operations to announce that the army has secured "major town and population centers" and killed more than 550 militants (Reuters, AFP, Geo TV, Pajhwok). Independent verification of claims in the region is all but impossible because reporters and aid workers are barred from the region except on occasional guided trips, and a Pakistani spokesman warned that Taliban fighters have escaped into neighboring tribal agencies. The chief of the Taliban in the Swat Valley, Maulana Fazlullah, told BBC Urdu that he has also safely escaped to Afghanistan (BBC).

A bomb today targeting a local police chief in Quetta, the capital of Pakistan's southern Baluchistan province, has killed one and wounded about eight others, demonstrating militants' reach across the country, though the attack has not yet been claimed; Baluchi nationalists and the Taliban are active in the area (BBC, Dawn, AP, Geo TV, Pajhwok). Quetta police later arrested three alleged potential suicide bombers, aged 17 to 27, and recovered a large cache of explosives and weapons (Dawn).

Taliban militants blew up a girls' school in Khyber earlier today, the third such attack in a month, underlining the extremists' continued targeting of education in the country (AFP, Dawn, Pajhwok). Militants have destroyed hundreds of schools, mostly for girls, in recent years. And increasing violence in Punjab, home to Pakistan's biggest bank and generating more than half of the country's economic growth, has investors and businessmen worried (Bloomberg).

Top chef: Afghanistan

An American chef at a base in Kandahar, in Afghanistan's insurgency-ridden south, is a long way from his previous career in the Ritz Carlton in Orlando, FL (ABC News). Though half a world away, soldiers in Kandahar say they feel more at home because of days like "Soul Food Thursdays" in Afghanistan.

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